We are not ready for an escalation of violence in Ulster

14 March 2009

Dean Godson says that this week’s murders have yielded impressive displays of cross-party unity. But they also draw attention to Northern Ireland’s vulnerability to terrorist attack, and the risks that were always inherent in the dismantling of the Province’s security structure

‘After they die, they will be forgotten, just as the policemen and soldiers who died are forgotten after a while, except by those who loved them.’ So said Florence Cobb, widow of RUC Inspector Harry Cobb, murdered in Lurgan by the Provisional IRA in 1977. I recalled those simple but powerful words when I heard that Constable Stephen Paul Carroll had been murdered by dissident Republicans on Monday night — just five miles away in Craigavon, Co. Armagh.

I had a horrible sense of déjà vu — not just about the murders themselves, but also about the near uniform reaction to them. I can remember a time when there was a consensus about the wickedness of murdering RUC officers — save among Republicans, whose electoral support was anyhow negligible in the pre-Hunger Strikes era. In other words, not too different to the dissidents of today.

Inspector Cobb never lived to see the force he died for altered beyond recognition under the terms of the Good Friday Agreement — and the man who was then convicted of his killing subsequently became a much respected member of the Sinn Fein negotiating team. If past form is anything to go by, the indignation of the political and official classes will blow over quickly enough.

But has the current power-sharing executive changed all that — with the DUP First Minister Peter Robinson and the Sinn Fein Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness flanking the Chief Constable of the Police Service of Northern Ireland, Sir Hugh Orde, in a remarkable display of cross-community solidarity? McGuinness’s description of the dissident Republicans as ‘traitors’ to the cause of Ireland inevitably commanded the greatest attention. But in its own way, Robinson’s formulation was no less striking: ‘This is a battle of wills between the political class and the evil gunmen — the political class will win.’

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Ian

March 12th, 2009 11:14am Report this comment

This is a measured and essentially sound analysis from Dean Godson. I might take issue on a matter of fact - Irish welfare levels are currently HIGHER than Northern Ireland's - and on a matter of opinion - it is precisely when the southern economy is in difficulties that one can see a transference of Irish national self-esteem back on to the abstractions of republicanism and nationalism. It is not accidental that the relaxed attitude of the southern Irish to the Belfast Agreement and its consequences coincided with a burst of hedonism allied to "prosperity" in the years 1995 to 2008. By the same token, the sharp reversal of that "prosperity" heralds dangers for southern acquiescence in its continuation.

Paisleysnemisis

March 12th, 2009 1:40pm Report this comment

That is a good article and I would like to back up the accuracy of Ian's comments

Peter

March 12th, 2009 5:29pm Report this comment

An excellent analysis-certainly the best I've read so far - as you would expect from Dean. One worrying consequence he passes over however is that the 'remedy' of accelerating devolution of policing etc. may generate renewed, and destabilising unionist fears that the price of 'peace' is still further concessions to Republicans, especially if there are more such killings...

Herbert Thornton

March 13th, 2009 12:15am Report this comment

This was a most interesting analysis. It would be even more interesting to consider what the situation will be like when the Muslim population of England increases to a level where violence from Islamic extremism becomes an even bigger problem than violence in Northern Ireland.

Diarmuid

March 16th, 2009 9:46pm Report this comment

Fine, well balanced article. Two corrections should be made though. Firstly as alluded by other contributers, social welfare rates in the Republic of Ireland are significantly higher than in the UK. Unemployment benefit for young men is in fact 4 times the level in Northern Ireland. This has led to a significant problem with benefit tourist crossing the border to collect their dole.
A more serious quibble is with the suggestion that army patrols be put back on the street. This would be a serious mistake and would simply play into the hands of the callous murderers who took the lives of those innocent soldiers and policeman last week. The Real IRA want the British army back on the street. They know well the sight of armed soldiers in civilian areas would be a major propaganda victory for them. This is a job for the PSNI. We can only hope and pray for their success