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Nato has serious supply problems in Afghanistan

11 March 2009
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Jon Boone says that Nato plans to get military supplies in through Tajikistan could draw the former Soviet colony into the battle as Cambodia was dragged into the Vietnam war

This isn’t just an aesthetic or ethical problem: because of his corruption and because of the army of mostly twenty-something men who have started returning home as recession has wiped out their jobs on the buildings sites of Moscow, Rahmon’s regime is under threat. An apocalyptic report published in February by the International Crisis Group concluded that it could ‘collapse at any moment’ given a big enough disaster.

The most cynical members of the international community in Dushanbe foresee Tajikistan being sucked into the wider Afghan conflict, in the same way Cambodia was drawn into Vietnam and Pakistan is already part of the ‘AfPak’ conflagration. Also, the Taleban will probably move to open up a new front in Tajikistan if a major logistics operation is established just beyond the country’s undefendable border.

So there’s no easy solution to Afghanistan’s most fundamental problem, and a quick fix in Tajikistan may prove to be more of an opportunity than a frustration for the Taleban. As one Taleban commander interviewed by CBS last month put it: ‘We almost blocked the supply routes coming via Pakistan, and we have already sent about 1,000 Taleban to cut new supply routes from the north into Kabul, via Central Asia and Russia.’

Bullish Nato officials point to the Berlin airlift as an example of how the West will always be able to get supplies through, whatever the cost. But while the Berlin airlift lasted less than 11 months, the Afghan commitment will take a generation. If Nato is to succeed in Afghanistan, it will have to solve its supply problem.

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Comments Post comment

David Bouvier

March 12th, 2009 11:21am Report this comment

If forget who said "amateurs talk strategy, professionals talk logistics".

As ever, logistical over-stretch risks defeat, even rout.

RobHK

March 12th, 2009 1:34pm Report this comment

"...the Achilles’ heel for the entire international mission in Afghanistan: Nato’s supply roots..."

Too right... They don't grow on trees.

Bill Corr

March 13th, 2009 2:27pm Report this comment

Does any sane person in the real world really care a fig - Edward Lear here - who runs a dump like Afghanistan any more than anyone cares who runs dumps like Somaliland or Transniestria?

Jon Boone may have already considered, and dismissed, the idea but a supply route from western China would be technically possible; there is already a road of sorts along that Wakhan corridor - an enduring memento of the Great Game - which connects the rough square of Afghanistan with the Chinese border, but the Chinese might - possibly - demand too high a price for opening up the supply line. Still, it would be perfectly feasible and, incidentally, interesting to see dusty Tashkurgan blossom forth as a prosperous supply centre, a sort of chilly Dubai in the cold clear air of Chinese Turkestan. The local Tajiks, incidentally, know their place and would be unlikely to kick up a fuss or prove tiresome.

Basil Seal himself would have been proud of so neat a solution.

Bianca

March 15th, 2009 3:56am Report this comment

NATO has a supply solution. Over 300 train containers weekly will be approximate load accross Russia, Kazahstan and Uzbekistan. It is tempting to get some of the traffic redirected to Tajikistan and via a bridge (from nowhere to nowhere) that US taxpayers paid for. Well, then it can be finally said that the bridge would have a purpose. However, since US has to carefully watch its pennies, it makes little sense to screw up the transit by getting involved in sensitive Tajik/Afghan issues, and expanding the war. Although military always thinks it can win a loosing battle by opening just one more front, I hope our reps in Congress will hear the warning bells. It is as if the public, the Congress and even the White House do not yet grasp the financial pickle we are in. They are still policing all sorts of skirmishes around the world, and in some cases causing those skrimishes, and paying to keep the flames going! We should hightail out of Sub-Saharan Africa from where the famous Darfur disaster is being fanned. Once the funds, vehicles, gas and guns stop flowing from accross the border, the "rebels" would quickly disappear into the brush, and the conflict would be over. Paying for indictment of the President of Sudan, another waste of money. He should instead hit as hard as possible any scum that targets civilians, and we will save a lots of pennies. Another place to abandon is Kosovo. Another money pit, with crime gang leaders at the top. Once we dismantle useless Camp Bondsteal, and get out of there, Kosovars will find it all of a sudden possible to accept Serbian offers of autonomy! We have no need for a Balkan empire, so all the military, contractors and the contractors' contractors should just hightail out of there. Not to mention the armies of NGO's, over 1,000 just in Afghanistan! How much that that mess cost! It is still probably not clear to our worried but impractical citizens that it is time to stop playing Roman empire, and get our house in order. As for Afghanistan, the sooner a deal is cut that would give former Northern Alliance the rule over northern Afghanistan, while the Pashtuns take over the South, the better. And if South wants to join Pakistan, so be it. And then, sooner rather then later, get out of Pakistan as well. From a nice distance, we can help them with advice, and occassional help.

Bianca

March 15th, 2009 4:08am Report this comment

What is the issue here? The supply corridor is already in place for approximately 300 train containers weekly. From Europe, through Russia, Kazahstan and Uzbekistan. The corridor has no problems, and the agreement is in place. Looking for a trouble in Tajikistan is dumb, but leave it up to the military to come up with such ideas. Military when in trouble and in danger of loosing the war, always opens another front.

But US taxpayer needs to get serious. We need to hightail out of such places, as it really does not mean anything to US if Northern Alliance takes over part of Afghanistan, while Pashtuns take over the south. Why do we care? And it is high time to get out of the Sub-Saharan Africa from where we supply "rebels" in Darfur. Once we hightail out of there, there will be no more guns, vehicles, gas or cash, and the "rebels" will disappear into bushes where they came from. This is Sudanese internal matter, and external meddling just gives encouragement to any provincial Tom, Dick and Harry that would like to have their own country. Same for Somalia, Georgia, or Ukraine. Do we care how they run their countries? No. And if they behave, they would not have problems with their big, bad neighbor, Russia. As it stands, we love to encourage every budding "democrat" to stick their tongue at the big neighbour, and in case of Georgia, to do a little shooting war! And when they get a bloody nose, we rush with our money to rebuilt their military sand box. Enough! And Kosovo is another one --- dismantle Camp Bondsteel, as we do not need to lord over Balkans. Once we leave, Kosovo crimelords will find out how they will just have to come to terms with Serbia. We have our fingers in all sorts of messes, and we are going bankrupt. When will the weary citizen finally get it?

David

March 16th, 2009 6:47am Report this comment

Afghanistan is not the problem it's places like Luton and Bradford.The enemy is within.When we have a repeat of the London bombings what we saw on the streets of Luton when the good people of of that town turned on that enemy within this country is like a pressure cooker with the safety valve stuck and when it blows it will BLOW!! This vile Labour party has been a total disaster for Britain

Col (Ret.) George Singleton, USAF

April 21st, 2009 5:25pm Report this comment

This articles author is way to cynical. The Taliban are taking a real beating, are isolated from larger freedom of movement, and are being pounded again by Pakistani planes, helicopters and more Paksitani troops are returning to the Afgan/Pakistan front from a brief (phoney to me) deployment to the Indian border of Pakistan. No, nothing is easy over there. But, as the guy who ran from Karachi to Peshawar 100% of the logisitcs for the old US Air Base at Peshawar 1963-1965, as much by airlift as by the then single rail line, and none back then by road, I know what is involved and we are doing better than young journalists being very cynical to catch reader's attention. We still have plenty of logistical capability, even though during the winter months the Taliban were more of a problem than usual. This article is unduly biased and full of concocted speculations about topics the writer has no first hand knowledge from an insider's point of view, at all.

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