Brahma Chellaney says that India is indeed ‘the sponge that protects us all’ from terrorism emanating from Pakistan. The new President’s strategy is compounding the Af-Pak problem
New Delhi
One of the most striking things about the larger Asian strategic landscape is that India is wedged in an arc of failing or troubled states. This harsh reality is India’s most glaring weakness; its neighbourhood is so combustible as to impose a tyranny of geography. Today, Pakistan’s rapid Talebanisation tops India’s concerns. After all, the brunt of escalating terrorism from Pakistan will be borne by India, which already has become, in the words of ex-US official Ashley Tellis, ‘the sponge that protects us all’.
As Pakistan has begun to sink, top US intelligence and security officials have made a beeline to India for discussions, including the new CIA director Leon Panetta (who came to New Delhi on his first overseas visit), the FBI director Robert Mueller, the joint US chiefs of staff chairman Mike Mullen and the administration’s special envoy Richard Holbrooke. The fact that President Obama, in his first 100 days, has helped put together $15.7 billion in international aid for Islamabad shows that the United States will not allow Pakistan to become a failed state.
The real threat is of an Islamist takeover of Pakistan. Yet Obama’s strategy on Afghanistan and Pakistan (or ‘Af-Pak’ in Washingtonese) inspires little confidence. Throwing more money at Pakistan and keeping up the pretence that the badly splintered and weakened al-Qa’eda poses the main terrorist threat risks failure.
The Af-Pak problem won’t go away without a fundamental break from the American policies that helped create this terrifying muddle. The US military can never win in Afghanistan, or even secure a ticket out of that country as Obama wants, without first dismantling the Pakistani military’s sanctuaries and sustenance infrastructure for the Taleban and other state-reared terror groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba (the group who carried out the Mumbai atrocities) and Jaish-e-Muhammad. As Bush’s national security adviser Stephen Hadley pointed out just before leaving office in January, ‘You can’t really solve Afghanistan without solving Pakistan.’
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vishnu bhagnani
April 30th, 2009 8:08am Report this commentcan you get some original thinkers to write something thought provoking please ? hacks like brahma chellany regurgitate pedestrian material from sources like yahoo.
or is it that you prefer writers bereft of qualifications and intellect.
boring and pedestrian.
no i am not a pakistani and an indian to boot.
Gautam Sen
April 30th, 2009 8:33am Report this commentThe only relevant questions are when will the US concede defeat and discreetly abandon its foolhardy enterprise in the region and how big a mess will it leave behind. The Islamists don't believe in democracy, but nor did the US-sponsored generals who have brought Pakistan to such a sorry pass. Both have equal hatred for India and nothing worse will happen to it than what has been happening, i.e. terror outrages in its cities and Kashmir. India has absorbed both without undue protest as the indifference of most of the electorate to the issue of terrorism during the on-going general elections is demonstrating. But Pakistan will need sponsors to survive its deep-seated economic crisis and fund its campaign to destroy India. The Saudis and Chinese will oblige after the US leaves. And why should the Islamists use their nuclear weapons against anyone when just threatening their use paralyzes Indians and terror will eventually scupper Indian economic advance and perhaps even bring it to heel? The Islamists will find economic transformation much harder to achieve and Pakistan's demographic catastrophe will only intensify. Nevertheless, China will be delighted to continue using this low-cost option to contain its regional rival by inciting and arming Pakistan, about which it gives a damn. Only Indians pray America will care for its fate, but they are likely to be sorely disappointed.
kunnyakudi sitaraman
April 30th, 2009 9:42am Report this commenti would be interested in knowing whether mr chellany is anti, people of pakistan who are muslims ? anti muslims in india ? or anti sections of pakistani state who hurt india's interest.
what should be the endgame on pakistan that would satisfy mr chellany ? i hope he has robust answer..
GaryO
April 30th, 2009 9:57am Report this commentThank you for a very good and timely article.
In their pursuit of the "war on terror" (are we allowed to use this phrase anymore??, the West and particularly the US has shown utter disregard for India and the dangerous consequences of arming Pakistan.
US "aid" will be used, not to fight Taliban, but India. Indians should consider US military aid to Pakistan as akin to Russia supplying missiles to Cuba. The only difference is that Cuba never has and probably never will attack US, but as history has shown, the same cannot be said about Pakistan.
US allowed Pakistan to acquire nuclear bomb. It is training Pakistani intelligence services, giving billions in aid. While Indians have to fight Pakistani terrorists on its own, its people have to work hard to achieve even a modicum improvement in their standard of living and toil for every penny - not to mention apply huge recourses to preserve its teetering democracy, Pakistan is sitting pretty with US billions pouring in. All Pakistan has to do it seems is threaten the West with a bunch of terrorists. This is ransom money.
Indians should get rid of this notion that US is their friend – if anything it is quite the opposite, it must view US as its most dangerous foe. India must play smart and forge its own alliances to counter this US/Pakistan axis.
Both Israel and India, the only democracies surrounded by the sea of "fundamentalism", are on the fault lines of terrorism. The current US strategy of doing deals, giving aid and extending hands of friendship to those whose dream it is to wipe these countries off the face of this earth, does not bode well for either of these two countries.
Both Israel and India should look elsewhere for friendship.
Herbert Thornton
April 30th, 2009 5:18pm Report this commentBrahma Chellaney and GaryO are entirely right.
It is a great pity that India was discouraged from dealing decisively with Pakistan after the Pakistani terrorist attack some years ago on the Indian Parliament. It is a great mistake for the world to expect India to go on being, as Brahma Chellaney so aptly puts it, the main sponge for absorbing the evil emanating from Pakistan. And if India can achieve a rapprochement with China, so much the better.
Wonchang
May 1st, 2009 2:43am Report this commentWhile a tad hysterical in part - Brahma's piece is one of the few that have articulated the real threat of Obama's current contra-intuitive policy of appeasement. This deeply flawed approach has been previously demonstrated with Vice Pres Joe Biden's vacuous claim that 75% of Taliban were only in it for the money, and so could be negotiated with. Most thinking Indians would know could have told Obama and Joe that Islamic extremism is a virus as bad as any other form of extremism and the exemplars of it such as the Taliban can only be exterminated, not negotiated with! How on earth can you negotiate with people who's avowed intentuion is to kill you if you don't submit to their will (i.e. become a Muslim)? India's problem is that they cannot give the Pakistani's who are courting/allowing the extremists in their midst to gradually take over the flogging they so richly deserve. Pakistan may be teetering on the brink as a failed state, but it is a nuke-armed one. If India tried to resolve the situation (and protect herself) by defeating Pakistan militarily, there is the nightmare scenario that Pakistan, facing defeat, would use their nukes. Its a risk Indian cannot take. Only the US can intervene and stabilize Pakistan, thereby giving India (Kashmir isssue aside) the security it should enjoy. Unfortunately Obama's Islamic extremist appeasement policy and throwing money at a corrupt regime (democracy or not) will not solve anything and as Brahma says, the longer it drags on, the worse it will become. Its up to India and other Western countries allied to the US to convince them to change their current policy direction.
Mahmud Bagh
May 1st, 2009 4:17am Report this commentIndia should re-invigorate its alliances with Russia and strenghen its relationship with Japan and Israel. The U.S. is a foe under Obama.
Ganpat Ram
May 1st, 2009 10:44am Report this commentWhos fault is it if a country of 1100 million does not have the guts to defend itself?
Don't blame anyone but yourselves.
We will all become monotheists, that's all. The Bible decrees it.
Zardari
May 1st, 2009 10:46am Report this commentThe US doesn't understand what a close affinity exists between pakistan army and the taliban. Any aid from US will eventually find way to weapons program of pakistan or to terrorists aimed against india and the US itself. It's like paying for your own death, don't you get it mr.president?
Ganpat Ram
May 1st, 2009 12:40pm Report this commentIndia is in peril because of its own comatose inability to bestir its flabby self in the face of extreme danger.
Don't blame Obama.
A country of no less than 1100 millions which perpetually acts the crybaby cannot gain respect.
India is doomed to be demolished by monotheistic fanaticism.
Don't blame Muslims for this destructive One God fanaticism. They learned it from the Old Testament.
Sharma
May 1st, 2009 3:56pm Report this commentBrahma,
A superbly presented article, even if painfully over-due and woefully accurate. Indeed a flogging it is, as Wonchang puts it, that India ought to have given to Pakistan. To distance Britain from the issue is to wear rose-tinted glasses, however: the BBC is only to apt to dismiss any sort of protest by India, dissolving into a hissing fit about what it naively perceives as Hindu nationalism.
Ganpat Ram
May 1st, 2009 5:31pm Report this commentIndia will just have to look after itself.
No Big Mamma America is going to help. Nor should it.
When has India helped the US anyway?
During the Vietnam War India was one of America's fiercest critics.
The world is a tough place. It has no place for cry baby countries unwilling to fight.
India is huge.
It must fight - fight, you hear, or drop dead.
Sumant Rawat
May 1st, 2009 9:00pm Report this commentExcellent article that confronts the primary problem for India and I daresay the world namely should the fiercely medieval Pashtuns be allowed to harbor the equally medieval Al Qaeda Arabs and thereby wreak havoc on India (with its laudable ambition to become a prosperous democracy)and the West or remain hostage to Pakistan's inability to form a responsible law abiding state.The recent violence in Karachi points to a possible solution i.e.Pashtuns need a state of their own where they can live by their own code as at present they are clearly incapable of creating that state of order that permits a recognisable rule of law let alone democracy.
Gautam
May 2nd, 2009 8:11am Report this commentBang on, Brahma, as usual. It's clear that Obama has turned out to be just another Washington politician, not the earth-moving statesman he sounded during his run-up thanks to the magic of the teleprompter. But now that this reality confronts India, the reality of America's Af-Pak policy hurting India, what should India do?
It's time to tell Americans upfront that their policy towards Pakistan is no longer acceptable to India. India can't allow herself to become a sponge in this totally misguided war on terror. India has a problem, yes, with Islamist terrorism, but the US approach towards the same problem tragically doesn't help India. That's the factual position. From here, either the US agrees to work with India through this imbroglio -- and India has a right to do so for the simple reason that its interests are more directly affected by terrorism than the US -- or let India chart its own separate course in dealing with the issues at hand.
India, as Brahma writes in his opening sentence, is wedged in an arc of failed or troubled states. We need to think on our feet and not let spurious American think tanks dictate India's policy... Brahma, could be your next topic..?
Indra Worseley
May 2nd, 2009 7:58pm Report this commentA brilliant article in all respects, with a truthful thunderbolt of an ending.
Arvind
May 5th, 2009 5:36am Report this commentIndia has to shape things and reality in its neighborhood. Unless India does this and protects her national interests herself she can't expect the "world" that has its own problems to help her. India's failure is manifest in Bangladesh, a country that was liberated by India but couldn't "hold" onto it because she couldn't shape politics and culture in BD to her advantage.
Arvind
May 5th, 2009 5:45am Report this commentWhat I really don't like is morality in foreign politics. It really does not work. Yeah an overall "semblance" of morality is always good if you wanna convince some others of the good that u are doing. But being on a "moral high ground" like India does not work. I am a fan of Kissinger's realist foreign policy. National interests should always dominate. The Israelis probably figured this out a long time back.
Ganpat Ram
May 5th, 2009 3:17pm Report this commentThere is no more hope of India defending itself than of getting boiling ice.
Michael Brett
May 6th, 2009 1:52pm Report this commentThe Indian Government thinks that giving money to Pakistan is bad. Surprise surprise.
Arvind
May 6th, 2009 9:21pm Report this comment"The Indian Government thinks that giving money to Pakistan is bad. "
Nope, not really. Not sure about the govt. but many Indians DO think that giving money without any pre-conditions (putting it to "civilian" use, curbing terrorism from Pak, limiting Pak's defence spending etc. etc.) is bad. I think many Americans would probably agree after Dubya had given 10B over past 7 years with little to show for it, no?
Celeste
May 7th, 2009 2:50am Report this commentWhat a pleasure to have an astute article on this problem. Hopefully someone will bring it to Obama's attention - the present Whitehouse policy, together with throwing more money at Islamabad simply adds fuel to the fire.
arne
May 8th, 2009 2:53pm Report this commentUS support to pakistan is not going to change the situation, since this is a well 'fabricated' condition by Pak militory and to indirectly do the blackmail trick for assistance. End of the day, such uncontrolled assistance will create threat to the balance of power and a green signal for more india specific extremism or war. Why did Americans are not even thinking about the 1/6 world population living in India and at least for not to protect, but to avoid distructing them for ever..!.
arne
May 8th, 2009 3:02pm Report this commentFunding humanetrian assitance in Pakistan or for that matter in any country is a commentable activity, which could be done only by the rich countries in the world, and it is always welcome. However, such assistance should always go under strict monitoring, since money in liquid form can be diverted to undesired programs -- which is where the US aid to Pakistan is becoming a concern for India. After all, why the tax payers money of US or UK to be used to distroy the piece and stability of India ? Let the world give all assitance, but to be monitored promptly to ensure its use.
Baiju
May 10th, 2009 6:46am Report this commentUS think that the world are of fools.
Why is it so much of importance for the US to see that Pak and Afgan are secured. And why is that the US funding a terrorist sponcering nation with arms and money. Why is that they are not trying to solve the problem by direct military intervention than funding with money.
The answer is so simple: it is an aid to try to destabilise India, and if all happens as US plan, then they can create a disharmony in the asian region, and the US can get much money by selling these arms to either country.
But.. if the game is caught, and if the Asian countries join hands, I am sure US will become an another third world country. Since we have a great population and the arms from china, india, japan, russia will be dumped in US one day and this will stop his drama. The US election stunts and its interference in the world politics will be stopped. Some time even the south americian nations and canada also might join the asian nations.
Vib
May 10th, 2009 7:29am Report this commentThe United State is the only country in the world meddling with other countries.
If it is interested in bringing in democracy to the whole world, then it should have started with Saudi than starting with Iraq. After trying to frame a constitution in Iraq, it is still filled with religious rights, since the the constitution is religion based and can shift back again. No constitution in the world should have religion mixed in. The constitution should be common to all people as like that of the Indian constitution.
If there is religion mix in the constitution then the country can be identified as the respective religious country and after sometime the governence will again become religious based.
So all that is done in Iraq is waste and all that is going to be done in Pak or Afgan is againg going to be waste unless a common civil code and a non religious constitution is introduce (islamzation of constitution should not be there)
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