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To become an extremist, hang around with people you agree with

01 July 2009
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Cass Sunstein — co-author of the hugely influential Nudge and an adviser to President Obama — unveils his new theory of ‘group polarisation’, and explains why, when like-minded people spend time with each other, their views become not only more confident but more extreme

Those who lack confidence and who are unsure what they should think tend to moderate their views. Suppose that you are asked what you think about some question on which you lack information. You are likely to avoid extremes. It is for this reason that cautious people, not knowing what to do, tend to choose some midpoint between the extremes. But if other people seem to share their views, people become more confident that they are correct.

As a result, they will probably move in a more extreme direction. What is especially noteworthy is that this process of increased confidence and increased extremism is often occurring simultaneously for all participants. Suppose that a group of four people is inclined to distrust the intentions of the United States with respect to foreign aid. Seeing their tentative view confirmed by three others, each member is likely to feel vindicated, to hold their view more confidently, and to move in a more extreme direction. At the same time, the very same internal movements are also occurring in other people (from corroboration to more confidence, and from more confidence to more extremism).

But those movements will not be highly visible to each participant. It will simply appear as if others ‘really’ hold their views without hesitation. As a result, our little group might conclude, after a day’s discussion, that the intentions of the United States, with respect to foreign aid, cannot be trusted at all. We have a clue here about the great importance of social networks, on the internet and in ordinary life, in creating movements of various sorts. Social networks can operate as polarisation machines because they help to confirm and thus amplify people’s antecedent views. Those who are inclined to support a cause or a candidate may become quite excited if support is widespread on their social network.

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Comments Post comment

Barry

July 2nd, 2009 8:18am Report this comment

Another graduate of the school of the bleedin' obvious.

Mr Green

July 2nd, 2009 12:25pm Report this comment

Excellent article.
In some ways common sense, but in other ways very insightful.

David Short

July 2nd, 2009 3:06pm Report this comment

The sort of rubbish we have come to expect from The Spectator.

No doubt it will have lots of stuff about Michael Jackson in the rest of the issue.

Alex Kiss

July 2nd, 2009 4:31pm Report this comment

And the most obvious examples of such group polarisation are newspapers and magazines, such as The Spectator, which have a distinct political bias.

People come looking to feed their own prejudices. The more they eat at the trough of bias, the more they find to like.

I used to disdain the Daily Mail for wasting its writers obvious talent on pedling right wing drivel. But as the true horror of my culpabilitiy in letting Labour come to power in 97 has dawned on me, I have been reading the Mail more and more. I now hate labour with extermist zeal, and the Daily Mail has become my prop, my voice, and my comfort blanket.

It's enough to make you weep.

N

July 2nd, 2009 5:39pm Report this comment

I agree. Thanks for stating the obvious: "much of the time groups of people end up thinking and doing things that group members would never think or do on their own." I believe that is referred to as "mob rule" or i suppose "mob law" fits equally well.

I'm not sure what to think, this article was only a clip from the book so i'm debating comments. Given his closeness to Obama i can't help but wonder if this "new theory" is going to be another BS attempt to bash republicans and conservatives like the Homeland security memo that stated that the greatest threat to U.S. security is right-wingers. Is this going to be another "Paul Krugman" "FoxNews and republican media promotes right-wing extremism" sack of crap?

Dwight Vandryver

July 2nd, 2009 6:52pm Report this comment

If I am a believer in manmade global warming, I read Monbiot's articles in The Guardian. If I am a denier, I read Booker's articles in The Telegraph. Doubtless, both columnists make a good living out of reinforcing the preconceived ideas of their respective readerships.
But Cass Sunstein has failed to explore the side effects of what he calls group polarisation. Does it follow that manmade climate change believers are mostly left of centre, while deniers are mostly right of centre? There seems to be a superficial case for supporting this hypothesis, judging by the blogging on the websites.
This means that the individual has to be very careful about choosing unrelated bandwagons merely by political association.

DJT

July 2nd, 2009 11:10pm Report this comment

Hurrah - no more committees (they must be bad for our collective health!!)

michael

July 3rd, 2009 10:26am Report this comment

The extremes of do and die fundamentalism has increasingly become the power play for a group of like minded zealots: The HSE.

cath

July 3rd, 2009 2:52pm Report this comment

Any anthropologists out there? I would think this phenomenon is an extension of basic primate co-operation. Members of a pack can only urge each other on, to a kill for example, if others are suggestible. Potential for group influence is inborn. It's double-edged - members may be urged on to catch the prey in a group effort good for all but if judgement is poor they may race so hard they go over a cliff edge.

Cassandra Troy

July 3rd, 2009 8:37pm Report this comment

Surprise, surprise, Mr Nudge spills the beans on the NLP campaign in which the masses were manipulated to an extent, not seen for decades. The cyclic 'logic' goes as follows: put a number of subjectivists in a collective, and hey presto, what we've got is subjective collective opinion. Based on the principle of course that objective truth does not exist or is out of reach of man's limited brain power, and that free will is a myth. Very 'interesting' all.

Jon Livesey

July 3rd, 2009 9:02pm Report this comment

Well, this is very obvious, as Barry says, but maybe not to Americans, who tend as a nation to live inside a large echo chamber, with political opinions that range all the way from A to B. So it's probably a jolly good thing for an Obama advisor to figure tricky stuff like this out.

But there is a perfectly easy way to inoculate yourself against second-hand extremism, and that is systematically to expose yourself to opposing views.

I do this by reading the Grauniad as well as the Telegraph, and as a bonus I get to marvel at the determined irrationality of the contributing readers of both papers.

Nick

July 4th, 2009 4:35pm Report this comment

This is the guy who thought that animals should be able to sue humans, right?

Good to see that his doctor has moderated his medication.

"Strong emotions are OK so long as your views agree with mine". Hmm.

Nalim Sharpe

July 4th, 2009 6:45pm Report this comment

Sure, only goverment has the right to polarize people, all and only for common good!!!

Ken

July 5th, 2009 6:30am Report this comment

What happens, I wonder, when a group of sceptical, moderate, epistemologically sophisticated people get together? Uncertainty to the point of paralysis, I suppose.

J. Cuttance

July 5th, 2009 10:27pm Report this comment

I was going to say how this article is more of the sort of tripe I have come to expect from The Spectator...
but then I realised I would only be saying that because everybody else was

Egypt Steve

July 7th, 2009 2:43pm Report this comment

fine in theory, but pernicious in many ways: by arbitrarily lumping certain phenomena as "extreme" and writing them off as the products of deranged mobs, you avoid engaging them on the merits. I notice "conspiracy theories regarding Israel" written off as 'extreme" behavior. I suspect Cass hangs around with a lot of Zionist apologists!

jbk

July 7th, 2009 2:47pm Report this comment

This is not a "new theory" by any means. Social psychologists have studied group polarization for many decades now.

Not Even Likely

July 9th, 2009 3:23am Report this comment

Yes, it is obvious and understood in academic circles. But ordinary people do not always consider it or think about it. When in like-minded groups, opposing views are not presented. Then, expressed views get stronger and stronger and convince those who did not feel strongly before. It has to be said, otherwise people won't think of it. They will just think that the opinion and information stream they are exposed to is the truth.

robert a

July 17th, 2009 10:24pm Report this comment

I suppose this principle applies to those groups of financial felons that get together and give the rest of us a royal screwing.

Dog

July 22nd, 2009 4:18pm Report this comment

Amusing given that Spectator readers are a perfect example of a small group of like-minded types hanging out with the same foaming columnists, whipping each other into more and more righteous indignation...

landonlaro

July 28th, 2009 8:58pm Report this comment

kyoto potential without roughly southern extinction approximately statement

SFC MAC

September 11th, 2009 3:56am Report this comment

"To become an extremist, hang around with people you agree with"
Which explains why Obama ended up being a Marxist.

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