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Who can beat Hillary?

Republicans must heed the voters to beat Hillary

12 December 2007
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The battle for the Republican nomination

Behind their hands, observers compare her to Richard Nixon in 1968. Like Nixon, Clinton has a withdrawn, cool and calculating personality. The comparison does not end there. Both had apparently been forced to surrender hope of high national office previously — Nixon when he lost the California gubernatorial election in 1962, Hillary when she left the White House amid controversy over dodgy pardons and official gifts. Both reinvented themselves. Nixon became ‘the new Nixon’ (that kind of thing was newer then), Hillary a centrist Senate Democrat popular in upstate rural conservative New York as well as in the state’s urban liberal heart. Both succeeded, entering the primary season as favourites.

The comparison is not exact. Nixon emerges from it as the warmer and more vulnerable personality. But then we know more about him as a result of memoirs that cover his near-breakdown over Watergate; Hillary has yet to reveal any similar private anguish (though sorely provoked). Nixon was also the more intelligent of the two — in part because he has a claim to be the most intelligent president of the 20th century, overshadowing Reagan and Kennedy in that regard. But his superiority also reflects Clinton’s intellectual limitations.

She is undoubtedly shrewd, intellectually well-organised and the mistress of policy detail. But her famous 1969 commencement address at Wellesley, often touted as evidence of her intellectual precociousness, is banal where it is not incomprehensible — a compendium of 1960s clichés that invite Terence Rattigan’s joke: ‘Elle a des idées au dessous de sa gare.’ More recently, when dealing with a difficult question in debate, she floundered, seeming lost without a prepared reply. In short, she thinks like a swot.

Now the point of the comparison: Nixon almost lost the 1968 election. Though he left the convention ahead by 30 points, his eventual margin of victory was less than 1 per cent. Republicans hope Hillary will have the same impact, only about 1 per cent more so.

This hope is the obverse of their desperation. Almost every opinion poll brings portents of fresh disaster for the Grand Old Party. George W. Bush has a favourability rating in the low thirties. The percentage of voters who define themselves as Republicans has fallen sharply since 2004. Democrats now enjoy a 15 per cent lead in party identification over Republicans. According to Karlyn Bowman, the American Enterprise Institute’s charming but dispassionate analyst of public opinion, the surge in Republican identification achieved in the Reagan years has finally petered out. Democrats are all but certain to consolidate their recent takeover of Congress with further gains.

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John S

December 14th, 2007 8:59am Report this comment

The world will be a desperate place if any candidate bar Ron Paul or Dennis Kucinich is the next American President, with Ron Paul being preferential to Kuchinich. All the other candidates will just allow the world to continue burning, or worse - with illegal invasions and wars, the largely fictional "war on terror" (designed purely to remove our own liberties), the continued slaughter of innocent Iraqis (over 1 million now, don't hear that mentioned on the BBC!!), and the soon to be another illegal invasion of Iran, despite the fact that the IAEA and the US NIE report is telling us they are not making bombs (why we listen to the continued lies of war criminals like Bush and his former ally Blair I have no idea). Switch off your TV news, don't buy your daily propagandist newspaper, and start to open your eyes and think for yourselves for a change.

Jim S

December 14th, 2007 10:32am Report this comment

yes,indeed, John S. As in the original Godfather, you will wake up one morning with a horse's head in your bed wearing a nuclear bonnet.

Pom A.

December 14th, 2007 1:17pm Report this comment

If we do not want rival power centers in the world of tomorrow - and an end to the wars on moslem nations - then Obama should not be the choice!

Stephen Rothbart

December 14th, 2007 1:33pm Report this comment

This number of dead Iraqis, John S - what you also do not hear on the BBC - were mostly killed by Sunni insurgents from within the Iraqi community and others are Iranian backed insurgents. Bush tried to stop killing in the Middle East, naively beleieving that these people would respond positively, but they are still fighting their own wars. So you accuse Bush and Blair of being war criminals because they stood up to a homicidal lunatic like Saddam Hussein, who had convinced everyone he had WMD's, including his own generals, while he started two wars that killed millions of his own and Iranian people. S with all the people in Africa commiting genocide, Putin's ruthless put dowm of Chechnya, it's the USA and the UK you want to punish

Julipa

December 14th, 2007 9:49pm Report this comment

You're right John S - Ron Paul is their only hope. He's picking up support across all party lines. But what if he succeeds, against all the odds? There's too many powerful interests at stake - if he does try to dismanantle the Fed I don't give much for his chances of survival. We could do with someone like him over here. Maybe Cameron could learn a few lessons on what the silent majority in the UK would really like. Dreams......

L. B. Hughes

December 15th, 2007 3:50am Report this comment

Nixon's margin in 1968 was narrow, but his vote combined with George Wallace was 57% or 58%, and jointly they smashed the old FDR coalition for all time. That election was an important swing in American history, almost a Jacksonian pivot... And the difference between HHH and Nixon was much closer than it would have been because of rigged polls at the end, which fed on themselves and made it appear Humphrey was gaining momentum. Late hits by the liberal media were not widely udnerstood then, but they were very effective.

CW

December 15th, 2007 4:57pm Report this comment

Forgive my ignorance, but I don't know French; therefore I have no idea what Terence Rattigan's "joke" is all about. The best translation I could find among the many online translators of ‘Elle a des idées au dessous de sa gare.’ is 'It has ideas with the lower part of its station,' although one suggested the ideas were 'below the railroad station.' Could it be "she has ideas beneath her station?" Thanks for an otherwise comprehensible and thought-provoking commentary.

CallMeIshmael

December 15th, 2007 9:10pm Report this comment

This is undoubtedly the prevailing view in the Old World. Knowing nothing of US politics beyond what they read in our liberal press and their own parochial (socialist) world view, they cling to cherished prejudices which color their analyses of our election campaigns. That they're always wrong seems no impediment to repeating their misunderstandings every US election cycle. So they fall back on cliches. The truth is much simpler. The US is much more conservative than any country in Europe. Period. The US is also far more pious. This is largely a country of believers or at least of those who respect belief and wish they had it. As a result, they are far more tolerant of religion and religious diversity even extending to non-religious dissenters than they are ever given credit for by the intolerant left. Even so, that is no guarantee that Huckaby is a shoe-in or that Giuliani or Romney can't be nominated. What it does say is that Hilary's pretense of religiosity fools no one who is not predisposed to be fooled. Hilary's mendacity is transparent, which is why she will lose her fight for the nomination or the election if she is nominated in spite of people's low opinion of her character. Barack Obama, being a truly likeable fellow is far more likely to go on to victory, at least in the primary race. As for Republicans, what is lost on the left is the true reason for their gains in the '06 election which had nothing to do with public opposition to the Iraq war. Having experienced defeat in Vietnam, engineered by the left, the American people are not so much opposed to the war as they are opposed to losing it. Their rejection of Republicans was in part, a result of Americans' frustration at a war that was going nowhere. Now that we seem to be on the move in Iraq, attempts to sabotage the war and lose it are far more likely to be met with rejection at the polls. Unfortunately, the obverse is no longer available to the libs. They cannot now claim a share in what looks like a victory anymore. They have burned that bridge behind themselves. That leaves, what? Raising taxes? Now there's a vote-getter for you! Beyond just the war is the illegal immigration issue. The principle reason for conservatives' frustration with and rejection of Bush's policies is the president's obstinate refusal to acknowledge the will of the American people which are fed up with a government which refuses to enforce our laws. Whoever takes up this issue will be swept to victory next November. Take my word for it, this is the way to bet. The odd-makers in London and throughout the Old World would be wise to hedge their bets. Don't count the Republicans out just yet.

Michael B

December 16th, 2007 2:43am Report this comment

CallmeIshmael has hit the nail squarely on the head. Other posters' references to Nixon and the UK's "silent majority" call to mind the "silent majority" of the Nixon years. Most thinking folks in the US are tired of being attacked as ignorant warmongers by "morally superior" jackasses like the paranoid parrot, John S, though his almost perfect regurgitation of the Liberal dogma is impressive. The American public is largely fed up with the cynical lack of respect for voters most of our elected leaders display with their sound-bite sophistry and hypocrisy.

Rita

December 16th, 2007 4:46am Report this comment

Republicans may be dropping off into independents, but altogether the independents will not be handing the presidency to Hillary Clinton, so in my opinion there is no worry of her getting the independent vote. On the other hand, exhaustion with the '60's generation and its baggage make Obama look fresh because he is and he can win. Pointedly, we are all beginning to wonder just how much there actually is to being president anymore. Not exactly MENSA quality, nor ions of political experience either. We've seen three re-elected governors with big smiles but no world class accomplishment. Obama is right off the street and can probably do just as well, but nobody is going to elect Hillary - we're not that desperate.

Steve w

December 16th, 2007 10:17pm Report this comment

The inevitability of Hillary Clinton is one of the great urban myths of our time. Don't believe a word of it.

Paul Cowell

December 16th, 2007 11:55pm Report this comment

If the Spectator feels the need to have French speakinq nancy boys covering the most important election in the world then civilization is surely finished.

Steve C

December 17th, 2007 2:33am Report this comment

Let's hope a non-establishment Republican wins. We will need someone like that to have the vision and guts to close our borders and stop underpaying our labor force. We can be a mostly independent nation and therefore really do not need the cheap labor force the capitalists are pushing for in our nation, and world. The "establishmnet" leaders of both parties are trying to make this nation into a land of a minority ruling elite and a servant class of low-wage earners.

john fazio

December 17th, 2007 9:56pm Report this comment

the one republican who would be an absolute racing certainty is not eligible to run. arnold schwarzeneger.

Yaakov Watkins

December 24th, 2007 1:50am Report this comment

90% of the people who plan to vote are trying to figure who they will vote against. The Bush is setting records for lack of popularity and he is more more popular than either congress or the press. To put it simply. We don't like the President. We don't like Congress. And we think that the press is lying to us. Do you think Blair might want a job?

Verity

December 25th, 2007 7:49pm Report this comment

Yaakov Watkins asks if we think Blair might want a job. (Apart from the fact that, like Schwarzenegger, he wasn't born in the US, that is.) No, the universally loathed Blair has been promised the kind of job he likes best - appointed. He is tipped to become the first president of the EU (despite that the EU isn't a country so there's nothing to be president of). He will be appointed by the EU nomenklatura and won't have to go through the indignity of an election,which he would lose by a landslide in Britain, where he is despised by left and right alike. Obama worries me. Anyone who thinks he is ready to become the most important person in the world because he has served two years in the Senate has a raging ego problem. If he's putting down his marker for another run in 2012, fair enough. If he sincerely thinks he is qualified to be the president of the United States, he is off his chump. The French phrase just means, "She has ideas below her station".

Stan(expat)

December 31st, 2007 4:39am Report this comment

"since they would like to prove their anti-racist credentials " Rubbish. The most important thing is that one party not control both the White House and Congress. The best "ad" for the GOP at present is the dreadful performance of Congress since the mid-term elections & the Dem take over.

yak40

December 31st, 2007 4:44am Report this comment

Hello verity "despite that the EU isn't a country so there's nothing to be president of)." The new "treaty" in fact establishes a legal identity for the EU, so it will indeed be seeking a president soon.

Cynthia Roberts

January 18th, 2008 4:36pm Report this comment

I was surprised how easily you dismissed Ron Paul as a candidate who could win the election in November. I found this article because I searched for your name after reading your 1997 article "After Reaganism." If you still hold the ideas you supported then, why are you not supporting Ron Paul? He is the very candidate you were looking for at the end of that article! Here we have a candidate who is absolutely truthful (FactCheck.org has not one instance of Ron Paul misrepresenting facts, unlike all of the other GOP candidtates) and is a true conservative. It is beyond me why Republicans reject a candidate who embodies the desire for "change" and truthfulness that goes beyond party lines. Of course Independents and even some Democrats sick of corruption would vote for him, IF his own party were not doing everything possible to silence him. You, as a respected voice for the GOP, have an opportunity to support a real conservative who can win. Will you follow your party's lead in silence, or will you stand up for the Constitution and the man who's trying to save it? I will vote for Ron Paul and no other Republican candidate. If he isn't a choice, I will vote for an Independent.

Cynthia Roberts

January 18th, 2008 4:39pm Report this comment

I was surprised how easily you dismissed Ron Paul as a candidate who could win the election in November. I found this article because I searched for your name after reading your 1997 article "After Reaganism." If you still hold the ideas you supported then, why are you not supporting Ron Paul? He is the very candidate you were looking for at the end of that article! Here we have a candidate who is absolutely truthful (FactCheck.org has not one instance of Ron Paul misrepresenting facts, unlike all of the other GOP candidtates) and is a true conservative. It is beyond me why Republicans reject a candidate who embodies the desire for "change" and truthfulness that goes beyond party lines. Of course Independents and even some Democrats sick of corruption would vote for him, IF his own party were not doing everything possible to silence him. You, as a respected voice for the GOP, have an opportunity to support a real conservative who can win. Will you follow your party's lead in silence, or will you stand up for the Constitution and the man who's trying to save it? I will vote for Ron Paul and no other Republican candidate. If he isn't a choice, I will vote for an Independent.

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