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Pakistan needs more than elections. Only a new political class will do

16 February 2008

Stephen Schwartz says that, in this failing state, the ballot box is also a tinderbox. Even if Monday’s election goes ahead, Pakistan might well end up in a worse state than before: exporting terror, spawning confrontation, at war with itself

Nawaz Sharif was overthrown as prime minister by Musharraf in 1999, and some myopic individuals now argue that restoration of a formal succession by voting for Nawaz Sharif is an appropriate response to Musharraf’s usurpation. Sharif had supported free-market reforms, but at the same time expanded the area of Islamic sharia law in the Pakistani legal system. Musharraf may be weak in the face of fundamentalism, but Nawaz Sharif is altogether more dangerous: he is feared by many secular and minority Muslim Pakistanis (the latter including Shias) as an open candidate for radical Islam.

Furthermore, notwithstanding the secular credentials of Benazir Bhutto — her PPP was once considered ‘socialist’ — and as sophisticated as Benazir was (I had met her and found her charming), she did not enjoy a reputation for integrity. Having twice served as prime minister in the late 1980s and early 1990s, she appeared as a positive international advertisement for enlightened policies toward women leaders in a major Muslim country, but there was talk of corruption. Nothing was ever proved against her, but her widower, Asif Ali Zardari, is still known as ‘Mister Ten Percent’ for the demands he allegedly made on those asking for political favours during her years in power. ‘Mister Ten Percent’ now shares control of the PPP with Benazir’s son Bilawil, aged 19. Zardari is a probable but as yet unconfirmed candidate for prime minister.

If Pakistanis go to the polls — it is always possible that the election will be prevented by further chaos — they will face limited and depressing choices, and those choices are as depressing for the rest of the world as they are for Pakistan. Aside from the leading contenders, Musharraf’s Muslim League-Q, Bhutto’s PPP, and Nawaz Sharif’s Muslim League-N, a coalition of fundamentalists more intransigent than the followers of Nawaz Sharif will also run. This coalition is known as the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (United Action Council or MMA), and represents the Maududist JI and similar groups.

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Comments Post comment

Roy

February 14th, 2008 7:03am Report this comment

Why not let them stew in their own juice? Why should Britain feel any benevolence towards Pakistan? Perhaps we have a liking for the corner store proprietor (now a millionaire but still serves behind the counter). But that's no reason to feel a jot for the rest. Just in-case the '99% of the population are terrorists' figure is correct, keep them out of the country. What loss is involved? Tell me?

George Steiner

February 14th, 2008 4:20pm Report this comment

You know fellows I would not call Pakistan a failed state. Pakistan is what it is. It never pretended to be anything else. Just to remind you. Some 150 million people, adult literacy at about 50%, GDP per head of about $600, about 40% of the population inder 15. And Muslim and feudal to boot. Do you understand what this means? Well do you? The western nations and their insufferable talking heads are the failures. They refuse to contemplate the prctical matter of how long and what it will take to have Pakistan move from where they are to well... you pick a target.

Jeff Siddiqui

February 14th, 2008 5:44pm Report this comment

I don't believe Schwartz knows much about Pakistan or how the Taliban were born (their CIA-financed Mujahdeen roots); he also does not seem to know much about Maulana Maudoodi or the movement he founded (which was NOT based on promotion of violence). Schwartz would have us believe that every mosque in the US is at some stage of being infiltrated and taken over by Saudi and Wahabi agents...I wonder, does Schwartz come out of his fantasy lands often? Schwartz blames Musharraf without taking into consideration the many pressures (US, India, Muslim extremists, Afghanistan) that Musharraf has to work with...each pulling in a different direction! Schwatz appears to want Musharraf to send troops into the tribal Areas of Pakistan to "defeat the Taliban and eradicate Al-Qaida". It is telling that Schwatrz is not a Pakistani citizen or, he would not be advocating the massive slaughter on both sides or the subsequent civil war, that such and "eradication" would demand. Schwartz is full of criticism for Musharraf and Pakistan's policies but he does not make his own plans clear; what exactly would President Schwartz do if he were running Pakistan? As far as "Democracy" is concerned, even in the two countries that Schwartz gave examples of (S. Korea and Indonesia), the real steps towards democracy happened only when the US stopped interfering with who the next ruler should be in both countries...perhaps a good indicator of how Democracy might come closer to the people in Pakistan. The real question here is: Is the US ready to have a REAL democracy in Pakistan? Finally, I am fascinated how closely Schwartz seems to mirror Israeli policies of not even talking to Palestinians until they concede everything Israel wants, before "negotiations" or recognition by Israel, could begin...otherwise, they are "terrorists", like Hamas and the entire Palestinian population must be "strangled"...I have to wonder just who is the real terrorist there! It appears to me that Schwartz is more for lasting war, than he is for seeking paths to peace.

George Steiner

February 14th, 2008 7:35pm Report this comment

The Siddiqui fellow deludes himself if he belives that a poor, backward, feudal, Muslim country can actually have democracy. Voting doesn't make democracy by itself. The GDP per head of the Islamic world is $1600 dollars and even there Pakistan is nowhere. In contrast the Wests GDP per head is $35,000. What does the Siddiqui fellow suggests, to get from $600 to $35,000. And how long is this going to take according to him.

Herbert Thornton

February 15th, 2008 4:05am Report this comment

While I'd like to be able to agree with Roy that we should let them stew in their own juice, I think a lot of us are more concerned about how bubblings in the cauldron could affect us.

Assume that Pakistan's central government loses control to the point where the entire country is as lawless as the frontier areas with Afghanistan already are.

What then will be the likelihood of a Pakistani-made nuclear bomb being smuggled into, and detonated in say, central London while Parliament is in session, or in what, for all I know, may be a more accessible target - say York, or Bath?

The immediate result - i.e. in the next few minutes after the detonation - is reasonably obvious.

But what would follow over the next few weeks? I'm interested to read what other Spectator readers think.

Omar Khan

February 15th, 2008 12:43pm Report this comment

Pakistan may be a nuclear state, but then so are many other nations. Just because this one is muslim, doesnt mean that this one will be used by terrorists. Pakistan has been fighting the war against terror since 7 years now, and has had to face a lot of heat. That part of the efforts aren't being recognized. I think Pakistan was in a better stage before it joined the war on terror. Atleast the situation inside the country would be better.

Hereford

February 18th, 2008 12:14pm Report this comment

Herbert, first, I think Omar's point is valid. There is probably as much danger of an ex-Russian, or Korean bomb getting into terrorist hands as a Pakistani one. But, if one did go off in London or New York, well I think the West would awake and move the world into a new colonial era. I don't think any Muslim group would do this right now, because the West is still, just capable of responding with overwhelming force. In 10 years time though, as Western culture and society heads towards entropy, it might be a different story. However, in 10 years time the bomb won't be necessary. Sad, but there it is.

Herbert Thornton

February 18th, 2008 5:56pm Report this comment

Hereford, you may well be right & it makes me feel even gloomier.

If only the West had some of the spirit shown by the Cossacks in the painting & letter shown here -

http://www.cossacks.ca/letter-to-sultan.htm

I take some comfort in the belief that the Russians still have this spirit.

Ilyas khan Baloch

February 19th, 2008 10:20pm Report this comment

Sir/Madam, Democracy as a system of governance and interest representation demands respect for dissent and opposition. It recognizes the principle of majority rule and guarantees protection of minorities. Democracy also builds faith in electoral contestation to gain public office and gives legitimacy to political parties as primary instruments for acquisition and transfer of power from one set of individuals to another. Unfortunately, despite the significance of the above elements only the power full elite are fitted in power and Pakistani are always left at the mercy of circumstances. As this policy is denial of right of Pakistani people to rule their country according to their aspiration and desire to built this country, which can provide equal opportunity to all without any discrimination for the establishment of welfare society. Only the society base on tolerance, equality and justice can be the real guarantee for the prosperous and strong Pakistan there for your intention is invited to the crucial movement which could be the point of distraction or disaster. Change of socio-political system is inevitable to empower the Pakistani at grass route level for rapid development. See www.idp.org.pk Ilyas khan Baloch

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