No sleep till Denver: Hillary, the unlikely underdog, takes it to the wire

James Forsyth

8 March 2008

Once the shoo-in candidate, Senator Clinton has re-invented herself and forced Obama to bear the heavy burden of frontrunner. This race could go all the way to the convention, says James Forsyth — which will keep a smile on the face of John McCain

It was meant to be the night that Barack Obama sealed the deal. The presidency seemed almost within his reach. Then, against the odds, like the villain in a horror movie, Hillary came back from the near-dead. And by the end of Tuesday night — with a thumping win in Ohio and a victory in the popular vote in Texas — she had earned the right to take this contest to Pennsylvania on 22 April and, maybe, all the way to the convention in Denver in August.

Obama remains the favourite to win the nomination but for the first time Clinton has a credible reason why she should be the nominee even if she does not win the most delegates. The result in Texas, where she won the popular vote but trails heavily in the caucus, provides her with a terrific argument. She now insist that caucuses — in which registered Democrats gather in ‘precincts’ for a sort of balloon debate about the candidates until one favourite emerges — are unfair as they disenfranchise those voters who work the night shift or are otherwise unable to take a whole evening off to participate in politics. (Caucuses have given Obama 11 of his 25 victories so far.)

It is a powerful emotional argument and one that gives her the appearance of championing the underdog. One can already imagine a National Guardsman on the stage at the Democratic Convention in Denver arguing that the caucus system prevented him from registering his support for Hillary as he was serving his country at the time.

It’s a good case, but if Hillary is to make it properly, she needs to win the vast majority of the remaining primaries and be ahead in the popular vote going into the convention. Even a Clinton would struggle to argue that the best response to voters being disenfranchised is to disregard the popular vote! (Currently, Hillary trails narrowly in the popular vote unless you count Florida and Michigan, which have been stripped of their representation at the Democratic convention for holding their primaries earlier than allowed. If their votes were counted, Hillary currently would have a narrow lead.)

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jacksmith

March 6th, 2008 10:13am Report this comment

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama: Dear Madam, and Sir, A Hillary Clinton, and Barack Obama ticket is what we want. And that is what we need to take back the Whitehouse. We want a smart, tough, idealistic, seasoned veteran of many battles fighting for the American people (Hillary Clinton). With a young, passionate, smart, open-minded, hard-working idealist fighting for the American people (Barrack Obama). The DREAM TEAM! You are both fabulous candidates. And we, the American people are very fortunate to have each of you. Taking back the Whitehouse is critical for the American people, and the world at this time. And I think the American people have been saying loudly, and clearly that a Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama ticket is the best way to do this. I think the American people have made it very clear that they feel Hillary Clinton is the one best able to lead the ticket against John McCain at this critical, and desperate time in America, and around the world. These dramatic comebacks are testament to Hillary Clinton's skill, and experience as a fighter for the American people. They are also a testament to the strong desire of the American people to have both of you fighting for the American people at this time of midnight in America. Typical of the Clinton's is an uncanny ability to see and understand what the American people want. And then to try and get it for them. Even if they have to go through three political near death experiences to try and get it for the American people. This is classic Clinton's. They are the best I have ever seen. We are desperate out here. Millions of us are suffering greatly. And tens of thousands of us are dying needlessly every year. Men, women, children, and babies. We need help! As Hillary Clinton said "It's not a game". We need the two of you together on our side fighting for us, and for the American dream for all. Not fighting against each other anymore. It's time for you Senator Obama to join forces with Hillary Clinton as her running mate so that we can all focus our energies, and resources on taking back America for the American people. Don't make me hurt you. :-) Sincerely Jacksmith...

Johanna

March 6th, 2008 1:43pm Report this comment

Very difficult for Clinton to win the nomination, if not mathematically impossible. You can check out the different scenarios at http://www.slate.com/features/delegatecounter/ Obama is expected to win in at least Wyoming and Mississippi... Personally I think the world has had enough of the Clintons and Bushes -time for a real change and not Bill II.

PresidentD

March 7th, 2008 1:17am Report this comment

For Obama to get down in the mud with Clinton would be as stupid as getting into a knife fight with Jim Bowie. But that's what he's going to have to do. It would appear that these developments will spare us from both an Obama presidency and a second Clinton presidency. Once again, America will luck out.

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