No sleep till Denver: Hillary, the unlikely underdog, takes it to the wire

James Forsyth

8 March 2008

Once the shoo-in candidate, Senator Clinton has re-invented herself and forced Obama to bear the heavy burden of frontrunner. This race could go all the way to the convention, says James Forsyth — which will keep a smile on the face of John McCain

Hillary will continue to hammer Obama on his readiness — or lack of it — to be Commander in Chief. The Clinton camp are flushed with the success of their recent ad, which asked: who you would want in the White House answering a 3 a.m. crisis phone call? They’re sure it was effective in changing Texan minds. And the more this kind of ad runs, the better for McCain. Not only does it inject doubt into voters’ minds about Obama’s ability to handle such a situation but it emphasises the Commander in Chief aspect of the presidency, which is McCain’s strong suit.

The other part of the Clinton strategy will be to chip away at his halo by making hay with the Rezko trial. Again, this is extremely useful for the McCain campaign, which needs to make Obama appear like just another politician if they are to stand a chance this autumn.

Meanwhile, the Obama campaign — frustrated by the effectiveness of Clinton’s hardball tactics — appears tempted to launch a full-scale assault on the Clintons’ integrity. Already Obama staffers have publicly suggested, in relation to questions about the Rezko trial, that the Clintons are the last people to be judgmental about real estate deals (a reference to Whitewater). It looks like contenders will end up down in the mud.

If the Obama campaign had been offered these results straight after the Wisconsin primary, they probably would have taken it. After all, Hillary has failed to put a significant dent in Obama’s lead among elected delegates. But as the frontrunner, the expectations for Obama are different: the media will treat anything less than a victory for him as a defeat.

The Obama campaign looks likely to regain some momentum with victories in Wyoming, which is a caucus, and Mississippi, where the electorate will be heavily African-American. But the Keystone state will be crucial. If Hillary wins in Pennsylvania, then she will be in a position to close strongly in the final ten contests and take this race all the way to the convention. She will argue that she can win both large Democratic states and key battleground states. However, if Obama can win there she would find herself under huge pressure to pull out for the good of the party. A victory in the Pennsylvania primary would show that Obama can win large Democratic states apart from his own and likely help him to an unassailable lead in the popular vote.

If this contest goes all the way to Denver, the convention will be as divisive as it is dramatic. It would threaten to split the Democratic party along lines of race, class and gender and the surviving nominee would be likely to emerge bloodied and unloved by significant sections of the party. To stop this happening, Obama will need to deliver a knockout blow to Hillary to give the establishment its opening. On Tuesday he swung, but missed, and now he will have to wait seven weeks for his next chance.

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jacksmith

March 6th, 2008 10:13am Report this comment

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama: Dear Madam, and Sir, A Hillary Clinton, and Barack Obama ticket is what we want. And that is what we need to take back the Whitehouse. We want a smart, tough, idealistic, seasoned veteran of many battles fighting for the American people (Hillary Clinton). With a young, passionate, smart, open-minded, hard-working idealist fighting for the American people (Barrack Obama). The DREAM TEAM! You are both fabulous candidates. And we, the American people are very fortunate to have each of you. Taking back the Whitehouse is critical for the American people, and the world at this time. And I think the American people have been saying loudly, and clearly that a Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama ticket is the best way to do this. I think the American people have made it very clear that they feel Hillary Clinton is the one best able to lead the ticket against John McCain at this critical, and desperate time in America, and around the world. These dramatic comebacks are testament to Hillary Clinton's skill, and experience as a fighter for the American people. They are also a testament to the strong desire of the American people to have both of you fighting for the American people at this time of midnight in America. Typical of the Clinton's is an uncanny ability to see and understand what the American people want. And then to try and get it for them. Even if they have to go through three political near death experiences to try and get it for the American people. This is classic Clinton's. They are the best I have ever seen. We are desperate out here. Millions of us are suffering greatly. And tens of thousands of us are dying needlessly every year. Men, women, children, and babies. We need help! As Hillary Clinton said "It's not a game". We need the two of you together on our side fighting for us, and for the American dream for all. Not fighting against each other anymore. It's time for you Senator Obama to join forces with Hillary Clinton as her running mate so that we can all focus our energies, and resources on taking back America for the American people. Don't make me hurt you. :-) Sincerely Jacksmith...

Johanna

March 6th, 2008 1:43pm Report this comment

Very difficult for Clinton to win the nomination, if not mathematically impossible. You can check out the different scenarios at http://www.slate.com/features/delegatecounter/ Obama is expected to win in at least Wyoming and Mississippi... Personally I think the world has had enough of the Clintons and Bushes -time for a real change and not Bill II.

PresidentD

March 7th, 2008 1:17am Report this comment

For Obama to get down in the mud with Clinton would be as stupid as getting into a knife fight with Jim Bowie. But that's what he's going to have to do. It would appear that these developments will spare us from both an Obama presidency and a second Clinton presidency. Once again, America will luck out.

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