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Fraser Nelson How the Tories can still win in Europe

11 November 2009
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A week after David Cameron ruled out a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, hardly a squeak of protest has been heard from Eurosceptics in his party. It’s not because they have accepted defeat, says Fraser Nelson, but because they are deadly serious about victory

This will be particularly relevant when considering Mr Cameron’s plan to cut the number of MPs by 10 per cent. It is not about saving money, as he pretends, but a device to redefine parliamentary boundaries, which the Tories reckon would be worth about 20 seats. But this would also mean every MP being reselected: a rash of reselections that would hand masses of power to the grassroot members who may well work to ensure a triumph of the Eurosceptics.

This is why Mr Cameron will regard Europe as a test of party discipline. He has seen its destructive power. So have the others. One senior Eurosceptic in the shadow Cabinet, when asked about the refusal to hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, responded by saying, ‘We want to win the election.’ And so do the men gathered in the No Turning Back group: without power they cannot fight back against Europe, and in order to achieve power the Conservatives need to present a united face to the electorate.

This is why everyone — Mr Cameron, Kenneth Clarke, Daniel Hannan — is behaving so well. Even when resigning in protest after Mr Cameron’s refusal to hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, Mr Hannan did his best to be polite.

Team Cameron know that the uneasy truce will last not just to polling day, but perhaps for six months, and that it will be 2011 before the Eurosceptics start to grow restive. The deadlines being discussed internally have 2013 down as the date where Mr Cameron would have to deliver solid progress wresting back power from Europe — or face the consequences. The European parliament elections the year afterwards will be a form of judgment day.

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Comments Post comment

DavidDP

November 12th, 2009 11:33am Report this comment

"Anonymous witnesses could again be used in murder trials"

You don't think people have the right to see their accusers? Imagine if the state started running trials against people with anonymous witnesses.

oldtimer

November 12th, 2009 12:38pm Report this comment

I agree. It is a long game. The UK is now in a very weak position, financially and politically (lame duck PM). If Cameron and co make serious progress on their localism agenda, then they will be in a stronger position to argue (with the UK electorate - not the Eurocrats) the case for looser ties with the EU and build the case for leaving the EU and replacing it with a different, trading arrangement similar to that I voted for many years ago.

denis cooper

November 12th, 2009 12:39pm Report this comment

I don't believe that any of this would happen while Cameron was Prime Minister.

Not unless his Commons majority was at serious risk, and that would be unlikely to happen because he could always quietly ask the opposition parties to co-operate in defeating the rebels in his own party on behalf of the EU.

So unless the leadership of the Labour party took it back to its previous antagonistic attitude towards the EU, Labour MPs would be inexplicably absent from the crucial votes, or might even vote with the Tory government.

It seems unlikely that those now controlling the Labour party would be unable to prevent its own eurosceptic wing from regaining the ascendancy.

Similarly with the Liberal Democrats, but even more so; its MPs will always seek to push forward the EU project, and will always vote (or not vote) in its interests.

Supposing that the Tory party had a reasonable majority in the Commons, the key would be Cameron's decisions on the instructions that the whips should pass on to the Tory MPs, almost of all of whom would be "loyal" - ie loyal to their party leader, not to their constituents or to the country, and perfectly willing to serve out their time as his lobby fodder.

It should be remembered that they would have become Tory MPs by being successful as official Tory candidates, and the Tory party leadership decides who can be an official Tory candidate, and apart from sitting MPs nobody is being allowed become an official Tory candidate if they're openly hostile to the EU.

If Cameron decided to act against the EU, then the Tory MPs would readily provide the majority to push through whatever he wanted; on the other hand, if he decided to roll over and give the EU whatever it wanted, then even if some Tory MPs rebelled he could still get his majority with the help of the opposition.

So it boils down to Cameron's true allegiance; and as he clearly does not believe in the legal supremacy of our national Parliament, preferring the primacy of EU law, the only possible conclusion is that his primary allegiance is to the EU.

Hence, as I said at the start, I don't believe that any of this would happen while Cameron was Prime Minister.

Yam Yam

November 12th, 2009 1:50pm Report this comment

Cameron should make full use of the most potent weapon any British government has at its disposal when confronting the EU: money.

As the largest net contributor to the EU budget, Britain could have a field day telling the Eurocrats that the cheque to payroll the federalising juggernaut is 'in the post' (and you know what Royal Mail are like!).

:-)

David Parker

November 12th, 2009 4:03pm Report this comment

In the forst place I rather doubt that Cameron would be prepared to face any kind of confrontation with the EU and certainly not to go so far as witholding any of our payments to them, even though, as Fraser says, this would be one way of proving his alleged euroscepticism.

Secondly, any so called British Sovereignty Act, even though it might allow British Courts to ignore the ECHR, would inevitably be over-ruled by the ECJ, to which our courts are now legally subordinate, resulting in exemplary "fines" if they refused to review their judgements accordingly.

Whilst the French, much to their credit, often treat the dictats and fines imposed by EU with the contempt which these deserve, the reactions of British Governments so far has been exactly the reverse, to the direct cost of British taxpayers and businesses.

I only wish that Fraser's explanations of Cameron's theoretical euroscepticism and intentions were correct, however, if that were to be the case this would inevitably lead to an eventual withdrawal ( or expulsion) of Britain from the mainstream EU, something which both Cameron and Hague have repeatedly emphasised that they would never support.

Whilst I agree with Fraser that, under the auspices of a genuinely eurosceptic government, a policy of "civil disobediance" might eventually lead to a constructive renegotiation of our EU relationship, I also agree with Denis Spooner that this is unlikely to happen under Cameron's leadership. The fact that he has deliberately tried to purge the party of eurosceptic new candidates may give a truer indication of his europhile intentions.

David Parker

November 12th, 2009 4:36pm Report this comment

Apologies to Denis Cooper, for the typo, I was brought up in a family addicted to Spoonerisms, and often unintentionally use them, sometimes with embarrasing results!

Tom Burkard

November 12th, 2009 5:02pm Report this comment

According to an article in Pravda, "...the EU is a reincarnation of the former Soviet Union". They certainly know a thing or two about sham democracy, meaningless declarations of 'human rights', and self-perpetuating elites.

And as they rightly pointed out, free speech is like pregnancy: there aren't any half-way measures. Hate laws, enacted in the name of human rights, are capable of being interpreted to suit the prejudices of whoever is in power.

Back in the 1980s, I joined the Territorial Army to do my bit to preserve liberty and the rule of law. Never once did it occur to me that we would have to look to the Warsaw Pact nations to protect us from domestic despotism.

See http://english.pravda.ru/opinion/columnists/04-11-2009/110289-berlin_wall-0

terence patrick hewett

November 12th, 2009 8:49pm Report this comment

If Denis Cooper's analysis is correct in assessing Cameron's alleged Europhilia then it would mean the end of the Tory Party, since a large bloc of conservative voters would vote UKIP at the first opportunity.

Avudale

November 13th, 2009 3:47am Report this comment

Can someone tell me how it benefits us by having our laws, defence and court decisions made in Brussels by French and Germans (and the 25 or so other countries)?

Have we recently emerged from a communist or fascist state and require the assistance and approval of an EU consensus to temper our wayward country?

Do we harbour notions of European colonialism and a secret desire to direct the European continent?

No? Then free trade will do very nicely, thankyou.

Hepworth

November 13th, 2009 12:13pm Report this comment

If Cameron Is the slightest bit serious, (which I doubt) He would campaign for immediate withdrawal from this nest of vipers.
I myself will vote BNP on the basis that they absolutely will.

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