The oracle speaks

26 June 2010

Robert Chote’s Institute of Fiscal Studies is widely seen as the source of all wisdom on economic matters. So what did its director make of the Budget? Fraser Nelson asks him

A British Budget is never over until Robert Chote has spoken. It’s unclear just when this was inserted into Britain’s unwritten constitution, but his status was obvious from the audience gathered to hear his verdict on Wednesday. Policymakers, economics editors, broadcasters — all had come to note down, and take as gospel, what this friendly, slightly gangly 42-year-old had to say. ‘It’s amazing how one man came to wield so much power,’ muses a Treasury source. Just what to do about it has been on the Tories’ minds for some time.

Over the eight years that Chote has been running the Institute of Fiscal Studies, it has come to occupy its own place in public life. The IFS, rather than any committee of MPs, is seen as the Britain’s leading economics watchdog. Last year, when George Osborne was unexpectedly given Alistair Darling’s post-Budget slot on BBC radio and was asked if there were any hidden nasties in the Chancellor’s statement, he said he did not know, but that he would when the IFS had spoken. Even the man who is now Chancellor regards Chote as some kind of economics oracle.

I met Chote last week, preparing for his big post-Budget pronouncement. He looked even more low-key than normal, in a black T-shirt, jeans and trainers. In the corner sat the dusty computer whose output politicians have so come to fear. When Chote started giving his post-Budget briefings, he says, they were held in the basement. Last year, they had to move to a theatre to satisfy demand; this year, to an auditorium with a 450-seat capacity. ‘It is strange, and slightly daunting,’ he says. But he knows the drill. ‘You have day one, in which the government tells you what they want you to hear. And day two, when we try to tell everyone what the government doesn’t want you to hear.’

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