‘Touch wood,’ Karzai said to me. You hear it all the time
31 May 2008
From the President downwards, all Afghans know that the peace in Helmand is precarious.Fraser Nelson reports from a shattered land of corruption and murky power where warlords wait to see if the West has what it takes to stay the course and thwart a horrific new conflict
And yet there is a power even above this official oligarchy. It is the warlords, the former leaders of the anti-Soviet mujahedin who have never relinquished their power base. It was they who did the real damage to Afghanistan’s infrastructure during the civil war of 1992–96. Human rights organisations have thick files of their sickening atrocities over the years. If this were Bosnia, they’d be in The Hague now awaiting trial for war crimes. But this is Afghanistan, so they are either ministers or MPs — amassing wealth under the system through drugs, smuggling or the new racket of Western contracts.
The warlords have grown rich in the new Great Game, collecting money from the various countries with various agendas. Abdul Rashid Dostum, an Uzbek, has been a Soviet general, mujahedin commander, was funded by the CIA and is now offering his services to rout the Taleban. With permission, he said last year, he’d happily raise an army of 10,000 and annihilate every insurgent in Helmand. What is frightening about Afghanistan is that no one disputes Dostum’s ability to rustle up such a force.
The Afghans I spoke to repeated his point: why can’t a world power like Britain eliminate 15,000-odd Taleban? In a country where double-dealing is the norm, there is a theory put forward in the Afghan press that Britain and America are — like Pakistan — tolerating the Taleban while pretending to fight it. When a Nato helicopter accidentally dropped an arms cache into a Taleban stronghold two months ago, this theory was bolstered. ‘This isn’t a war to the West, it is a game,’ one Afghan journalist told me. ‘But if you leave now, the warlords will fight again and hell will open again.’
Mr Browne’s mission in Kabul was to persuade regional powers — India, Russia, China and Pakistan — to join ISAF, the international force supporting the Afghan government. He held a dinner for their diplomats at the British embassy, asking them what he could do to persuade them to join in. Each country is conspicuous by its absence from ISAF. It is as if they, like the warlords, are all standing back, poised for a war of Balkan complexity and horror when the West goes home.
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Water
May 29th, 2008 11:02am Report this comment"Only in Afghanistan could the rockets being fired into the Kandahar airbase be seen as a sign of progress" surreal.
Water
May 29th, 2008 11:15am Report this comment"Only in Afghanistan could the rockets being fired into the Kandahar airbase be seen as a sign of progress" surreal.
Water
May 29th, 2008 11:55am Report this commentGlad to see the posting system is working as normal.
Ray
May 31st, 2008 10:13am Report this commentThe most cutting comment on this whole tragic imbroglio comes from Charles moore writing in the Telegraph... "Why have we allowed ourselves to fantasise about ideal states, rather than exerting our power to make the best of real ones? Afghanistan won't have democracy as we know it; it won't suddenly want its women to wear jeans and choose their boyfriends; it won't forget tribe and embrace diversity. Perhaps this is a statement of the obvious, but, in our rather sanctimonious politics, the obvious is not always easily stated."
Ed Hummer
May 31st, 2008 2:41pm Report this commentHe was probably told to say ¨touch wood¨instead of the ubiquitous and equally meaningless Inshallah to any infidels he met.
Praetorian
May 31st, 2008 10:01pm Report this commentI am returning to Helmand for a tour of duty this Sep. I thoroughly recommend this article as it is the most informative and accurate one I have read on the situation in both Helmand and wider Afghanistan. Our presence in Helmand guarantees nothing except that the Taliban will not regain control. However, that is worth fighting for, the alternative is a terrorist sanctuary from which further attacks will be launched against the West. I hope the politicians keep their nerve and start to make a better case for our engagement.
Mungo Lockhart
June 9th, 2008 2:16am Report this commentA very good article - we are in for the long haul.
Note the milder comparison with Mexico where I live. Narcotics bosses apparently offer their front line Governmnent opponents a choice between cooperation or a bullet. This is not a choice.
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