‘Touch wood,’ Karzai said to me. You hear it all the time
31 May 2008
From the President downwards, all Afghans know that the peace in Helmand is precarious.Fraser Nelson reports from a shattered land of corruption and murky power where warlords wait to see if the West has what it takes to stay the course and thwart a horrific new conflict
There is something oddly soothing about going to sleep to the sound of gunfire in Kandahar airbase. The shots are fired by British troops, honing the night combat skills which achieved such success over the Taleban last winter. The fighting season was due to start four weeks ago, when the poppy harvest ended — but so far, nothing. British commanders are quietly optimistic that the Taleban has counted its 6,000 dead, learned it cannot win firefights and switched to guerrilla tactics instead.
Only in Afghanistan could the rockets being fired into the Kandahar airbase be seen as a sign of progress. Much as the prospect may terrify visitors, the soldiers themselves are sanguine. For those who were in the Iraqi bases being shelled 60 times a night, using body armour for pyjamas, the four-a-week rate of Kandahar is nothing. The main complaint of the servicemen and women is that the Taleban may well have gone underground and sporadic missile alerts could be all the action they see.
If the Afghan Question were about routing the Taleban, then it would be some way to being resolved. But nothing in this barren, war-ravaged country is ever quite as it seems. There are usually three layers to each Afghan issue. First is a superficial story laid on for the many Western visitors brandishing chequebooks. Then there is the real story: a murky world of drugs, thugs and racketeering. And finally, the question which preoccupies Russia, Iran and India: what happens when — as they all expect — the West gets exhausted and leaves?
Last week I accompanied Des Browne, the Defence Secretary, for one of his regular trips to Afghanistan. I was able to sit in on many of his meetings with the British and Afghan military, as well as to make my own inquiries in military bases and in Kabul. It was remarkable access, evidently granted by Mr Browne to showcase what he believes to be Britain’s extraordinary military and diplomatic progress.
From the quality of the food to the quality of the intelligence, the British base in Lashkar Gah have been transformed in the two years since the deployment. Then, just 3,300 troops were sent out, told by a dodgy Nato intelligence assessment that there were just a thousand Taleban in the southern Afghan. The real figure was closer to 10,000, as the soldiers found out when coming under direct assault. After some of the most sustained fighting since the Korean War, a truce was negotiated in the town of Musa Qala and the Taleban later moved in.
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Water
May 29th, 2008 11:02am Report this comment"Only in Afghanistan could the rockets being fired into the Kandahar airbase be seen as a sign of progress" surreal.
Water
May 29th, 2008 11:15am Report this comment"Only in Afghanistan could the rockets being fired into the Kandahar airbase be seen as a sign of progress" surreal.
Water
May 29th, 2008 11:55am Report this commentGlad to see the posting system is working as normal.
Ray
May 31st, 2008 10:13am Report this commentThe most cutting comment on this whole tragic imbroglio comes from Charles moore writing in the Telegraph... "Why have we allowed ourselves to fantasise about ideal states, rather than exerting our power to make the best of real ones? Afghanistan won't have democracy as we know it; it won't suddenly want its women to wear jeans and choose their boyfriends; it won't forget tribe and embrace diversity. Perhaps this is a statement of the obvious, but, in our rather sanctimonious politics, the obvious is not always easily stated."
Ed Hummer
May 31st, 2008 2:41pm Report this commentHe was probably told to say ¨touch wood¨instead of the ubiquitous and equally meaningless Inshallah to any infidels he met.
Praetorian
May 31st, 2008 10:01pm Report this commentI am returning to Helmand for a tour of duty this Sep. I thoroughly recommend this article as it is the most informative and accurate one I have read on the situation in both Helmand and wider Afghanistan. Our presence in Helmand guarantees nothing except that the Taliban will not regain control. However, that is worth fighting for, the alternative is a terrorist sanctuary from which further attacks will be launched against the West. I hope the politicians keep their nerve and start to make a better case for our engagement.
Mungo Lockhart
June 9th, 2008 2:16am Report this commentA very good article - we are in for the long haul.
Note the milder comparison with Mexico where I live. Narcotics bosses apparently offer their front line Governmnent opponents a choice between cooperation or a bullet. This is not a choice.
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