Sunday 8 November 2009

Jobs at Telegraph

This fateful election

Thursday, 30th October 2008


A must-read column by Walid Phares says the overriding issue in the US presidential election is national survival. Carefully and fairly analysing the differences between Obama and McCain, he concludes that the candidate who will best give America the best chance of surviving is McCain. Beyond his analysis of the candidates’ differences, Phares makes the chilling and all-too obvious observation that neither candidate has shown he grasps the full dimensions of the threat to its national survival -- and the survival of the free world – that America currently faces from the global jihad and the economic meltdown -- which he connects -- and which makes this election such a fateful one. Phares writes:
The flames of the urban uprisings in France, of the train bombings in Madrid, of the subway blasts in London and the school massacre in Beslan are only handwriting on the wall. The OPEC aggression against the US economy, the formation of gas cartels by Iran, Qatar and Venezuela with the enticement to Russia to join; all that are just ominous signs of what is ahead... The penetration of our systems, including educational, legal, bureaucratic, technological, defense and security by the Jihadists is ongoing and is projected to expand...

There are large segments in our society which have been disabled from understanding that the nation is at risk. They were made to think that this war against us is a matter of foreign policy and a President who can just ‘talk’ to some people out there will simply solve it and maintain the paychecks flowing. Many among us don't understand that the world around us can simply crumble if we don't have leadership that can strike a balance between defending the country and the free world and at the same time managing the economy successfully. But the bottom line is that these two are linked, deeply linked.

Senator McCain declared that the threat to the Homeland is a movement and an ideology, Jihadism. Senator Obama didn't tell us if that is his view as well. Instead we saw shreds of political alliances between his campaign and groups affiliated with this particular ideology. I am not impressed with the ‘Weather Underground’ network story as much as I am concerned about the access the political Jihadists will have to US National Security.

If that happens, Homeland Security will be at risk. Hence until I get answers to this fundamental question from Senator Obama's campaign, I do have a national security concern. Until then I can project a spread of Jihadi sympathizer networks within the country and even throughout many layers of Government. Over four years, and possibly eight, such a growth would become malignant. Over less than a decade, Americans could find themselves in situations never experienced since the Civil War.

Exactly. Do read the whole thing.


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Verity

October 30th, 2008 4:04pm

There has been a blackout, especially in Britain, on information about jihad. Complicit are Tony and Cherie Blair, Jack Straw, Alastair Campbell, Gordon Brown and all those fat middle aged women in the Cabinet who I can't distinguish from one another. Complicit, too, are Charles Moore, who was editor of The Telegraph during the MoToon riots, and whoever was editor of The Times. Uber complicit has been the BBC at all levels, the greatest traitor in the history of the human race. The British establishment, with very few honourable exceptions like David Davis and William Hague, is beneath contempt. If they think they are going to be thanked and allowed to go on their way, they need to do much more reading about jihad.

John Birch

October 30th, 2008 4:07pm

Yes, the survival of the most powerful nation in the history of the world is in doubt. Please! In case you've forgotten, there were far worse oil shocks in the 1970s that the United States survived. And in case you hadn't noticed, the price of oil has dropped dramatically over the last few weeks. The places in danger are Russia and Iran because of their dependence on oil not the United States.

Verity

October 30th, 2008 4:34pm

John Birch, you would do well to keep your mouth shut and stop confirming to the world that you are naive. Surely you don't imagine that so many tens of millions of voters are strongly opposed to Obama because they fear oil prices will go up?

john doe

October 30th, 2008 4:38pm

If only Durer had known that his 'Four Horseman of the Apocalypse' would be used to comment on the election of a country that did not even exist in his time. Enduring art.

Emmet Sweeney

October 30th, 2008 5:08pm

Mr Birch, nations and civilizations don't fall because they lack economic power, they fall because their citizens no longer believe in anything apart from self-interest. The west is indeed in terminal decline, as you and eveyone else will see in a very few years.

WG Graceless

October 30th, 2008 5:29pm

I feel sick. The desperate hyping up of 'danger' that Britain and America supposedly face by people who will profit from the fear is enough to make me want to cry.

To clarify...There was a cause for celebration this year as road deaths fell to 25,000.

25,000!!

In the past 5 years terrorism has killed about 30 people in Britain and yet Phillips would gladly throw out the Magna Carta and Habeas Corpus to ensure that we can lock anyone with a foreign looking face up for 40 days. Jihadism and Islamo-fascism are great distractors from what is really happening in the world. The new opiates of the masses.

Here's a test...How many people know someone who died because of terrorism (this person cannot be a soldier - the definition of terrorism is against non-military personnel).

No one

Now who knows of someone who was killed by a car accident?

You see my point?

David

October 30th, 2008 5:49pm

"There has been a blackout, especially in Britain, on information about jihad"

Yes. It's never been mentioned at all. No one's ever heard of it. In fact, this post doesn't exist due to the blackout. Cherie Blair has intercepted it.

David

October 30th, 2008 5:50pm

"How many people know someone who died because of terrorism"

I do. Next?

David

October 30th, 2008 5:53pm

"Surely you don't imagine that so many tens of millions of voters are strongly opposed to Obama"

I certainly don't have to imagine the many more tens of millions strongly supporting Obama. Roll on the election!

Verity

October 30th, 2008 5:54pm

W G Graceless "You see my point?"

No.

But I think you are a very provincial, not to say naive, bumpkin.

Craig Strachan

October 30th, 2008 5:59pm

Ah, yes, this fateful election that seems to have driven a certain hitherto respected British columnist into a state of utterly paranoid delusion.

America won't survive an Obama win? Really? Do you expect America to end during his first term? Because it seems to me that the effacement of America would be a two-term undertaking, at the very least...

John Birch

October 30th, 2008 6:23pm

WG Graceless: Well put. The hysteria that dominates here is laughable. And the article that Melanie quotes here is anti-American to its very core.

David

October 30th, 2008 6:29pm

"Because it seems to me that the effacement of America would be a two-term undertaking, at the very least..."

The Republicans appear to have tried very hard under Dubya......

Pip

October 30th, 2008 6:33pm

Well said Mr Phares.

Craig Strachan

October 30th, 2008 6:37pm

John Birch: "And the article that Melanie quotes here is anti-American to its very core."

Exactly.

fellow traveller

October 30th, 2008 6:51pm

I read the whole article and I don't understand why he decides that

"a spread of Jihadi sympathizer networks within the country and even throughout many layers of Government"

is imminent. There's no evidence that it has happened, or examples that it is happening in the US.

So therefore

"Over less than a decade, Americans could find themselves in situations never experienced since the Civil War"

seems to be based solely on his opinion.

He's some sort of expert, so if someone can see evidence that I missed in his article please let us know or else it's not really an analysis - it's just an opinion broken up into sections. It doesn't mean he'll be wrong - I just don't see why we should believe him at face value.

Ted Tedford

October 30th, 2008 6:56pm

WG Graceless: I cannot decide which is more depressing: your comparison between accidents and the deliberate murder for ideological purposes of your countrymen; or your blithely ignorant assertion that a soldier cannot be a victim of terrorism.

The murders by the IRA of British soldiers in Northern Ireland - deployed in support of the law of the United Kingdom - were every bit as much terrorism as were the IRA's murder of civilians.

Verity

October 30th, 2008 7:16pm

Well, all the little Obama trolls herein are hitting the panic button with an unseemly lack of restraint.

Do they really believe that saying "Bush" over and over again, like an incantation, is going to have a magical effect?

BTW, I see two more poor Obama relatives have surfaced, and these ones just down the road from the White House, so to speak, in Boston. An elderly couple from Kenya living in disabled accommodation.

Hysteria

October 30th, 2008 7:26pm

I agree the article uses a degree of hyperbole - but my interpretation is not that there is some Jihadist HQ somewhere with chains of cmmand, budgets, power-point slides and all the rest of it.

So will Amercia be taken over by subversives infiltrating every level - no.

BUT - many of the posters in CH do see the steady drip, drip as individuals in the West see the fabric of our society taken away piece by piece.

The uproar about Brand/Ross is not so much about what was said (bad enough as it was) but about the way the BBC has become the mouthpiece for this and similar behavour (at our bloody expense to boot)- how PC correctness preventts us calling Islamic Fascism what it is, how some section of the youth do not see the lowering of absolute values as being wrong or even realise the importance of these values, the attack of the liberals on our traditions - etc etc - the list goes on.

So this leads to an open goal for the jihadists and those who do not share our tolerance and sense of justice - for those who would use these qualities against us.

So the "subcersive layers" refered to will be people like you and me, just doing their job, not realising that in their desire to be PC, liberal, welfare supporting , just doing my job - they are in fact supporting the enemies of the West.

Darwin Akbar

October 30th, 2008 7:27pm

Those of us in the USA who think like Melanie Philips are as just as concerned.We cannot understand how a historically center-right country can possibly elect a Barack Obama to its highest office, when he could probably not receive national security clearance due to his odious associations. We believe there is some form of mass hypnosis and that many, many people will be very, very sorry.
A few years ago, Mark Steyn wrote the problems of convincing the public that we are in a "war against terror" when there is no terror, i.e., no fatal attacks on US soil. Moreover, the success of the surge took Iraq out of the mindset of the public, which has watched their investment accounts drop 30%. Yet, to elect a socialist/appeaser to govern a congress which can't wait to tax and spend in the name of "change" is truly, truly awful.

GoM

October 30th, 2008 7:51pm

From an outsiders point of view, I have never seen a country lose so much respect, so quickly on a world stage.

For the last eight years, Americans have suffered under the "leadership" of George "Dubbya" Bush and the world has laughed at his mismanagement.

How citizens of your once great country can even comprehend voting for John McCain and his obvious lack of direction and guidance is bewildering!

The ties between him and George "Dubbya" can not be denied. Do Americans really want more of the same?

God help us all if Palin would have to assume Presidency duties.

Time to restore some faith America.

Craig Strachan

October 30th, 2008 7:53pm

Darwin Akbar: "We believe there is some form of mass hypnosis and that many, many people will be very, very sorry."

Were you humming the theme to "The X Files" when you typed that?

Burt

October 30th, 2008 8:56pm

So 'Verity' and her like know all about Jihad despite the 'blackout of information' on it. So what are her sources other than pathological fantasies?

Byron in Wahroonga

October 30th, 2008 10:05pm

***yes, the survival of the most powerful nation in the history of the world is in doubt. Please!***

Obama's spent twenty years sitting at the feet of the leaders of the Hate America faction, gazing upwards starry-eyed. That doesn't concern you because you're a member of the same team.

Byron in Wahroonga

October 30th, 2008 10:07pm

***there was a cause for celebration this year as road deaths fell to 25,000.

25,000!!

In the past 5 years terrorism has killed about 30 people in Britain***

No-one prayed for, actively sought, and celebrated the deaths of those 25,000, Graceless.

Can you understand the difference?

Hayward Maberley

October 30th, 2008 10:09pm

Mr Graceless, and Verity fyi.
A few years ago walking through my workplace carpark I picked up some litter, one piece of which was the ubiquitous empty cigarette packet.
On the front was a picture of some medical condition
caused by cigarette smoking.
On the back was chart of causes of deaths in Australia. The figures mighty not be quite accurate now in 2008, but nearly 20,000 were due to smoking. All the rest and that includes alcohol,illicit/licit drugs, industrial ,transport realted accidents came to well less than half of that amount.
No mention of terrorism.

Hayward Maberley

October 30th, 2008 10:18pm

Verity,
Is this the David Davis who wrote a Piece in The Independent entitled "David Davis: We are losing Taliban battle" his report from Afghanistan makes interesting readin.
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/david-davis-we-are-losing-taliban-battle-966926.html

fellow traveller

October 30th, 2008 10:35pm

Darwin

While I appreciate you're worried, to post that

"he could probably not receive national security clearance due to his odious associations."

when he already has security clearance (he's a senator), and

"We believe there is some form of mass hypnosis"

what form? how does it work? Is not very helpful. You add

"the success of the surge took Iraq out of the mindset of the public"

Evidence? National security has been one of the major issues of the campaign. It's what we're discussing here.

"to elect a socialist/appeaser"

do you have any evidence he is either, apart from what the republicans have labelled him? As we've been discussing for a few weeks, there's nothing in his policies that remotely compares to socialism.

"to govern a congress which can't wait to tax and spend"

tax under the Obama plan will be reduced or stay the same for everyone under $250K, and for the super-rich it will go back to the level it was when Bush came to office.

If you are just going to come and throw out Republican smears and slogans, we can get those from TV. Why not engage in the debate a bit?

Marco Polo

October 30th, 2008 10:38pm

WG Graceless,

The word 'astounded' spring to mind when I read comments such as yours comparing Islamic Terrosim and Road deaths.
Has it not even dawned upon you in the slightest that it's not about deaths atall, it's about complete and total cultural destruction in favour of an oppressive, totalitarian one, that hates anyone other than itself - male, heterosexual and Muslim?
I think what really amazes me about the views of people such as yourself is that you are completely unwilling to put one and one together.
Are you completely unable to see the demographic change here in the UK?
Are you completely unable to see the blatant Islamic appeasement by our government(there are many)?
Are you completely unable to see that many of the government's Muslim advisors on terror and community are in fact part of the Muslim Council of Britain and the Muslim Brotherhoods both with strong connections to radical Islam?
Are you completely unable to see that the government did nothing when the Ch4 Dispatches Team investigated Radicalism within British Mosques, naming Preachers of Hate and instead allowed the Police to 'try' to prosecute Dispatches for inciting Religious Hatred against Muslims(which they failed miserably in doing)?
Are you completely unable to see that with the allowing of Polygamy amongst Muslims(still illegal for Non Muslims and up to a 9 year prison term) will increase the Muslim birthrate well above what it already is and that is higher than the current British average?
Are you completely unable to see that the governments estimate on Muslims in the UK is not 1.6million as they say but more around the 4/5 million area?
Are you completely unable to see that Islam is here not to integrate and become British but to simply take over our society and Islamise it by mere population increase?
Are you completely unable to see that the government has allowed Sharia Law here in the UK, that although Muslims state it will be subservient to British Law and not above it, it has already presided over many 'violent' cases that should have gone to British Law courts?
Are you completely unable to see that Saudi Arabia is pumping millions into the teaching of Wahabism into our faith schools as well as the setting up of Islamic studies in many of our student campuses which are also producing a large Islamist following of students, completely anti to British Culture(Have a look at the university of Westminster's last Head of the Islamic Society - Yassin Nassari)?
On the above do you not see that the British Government is playing ball to Saudi Arabia and not only is it selling the UK out to Europe but also to the Saudis too?

People like you are so dangerous because you will tell others that there is no danger when the danger is very, very real and here right now. We are looking at the complete and utter destruction of Western Freedoms and the many cultures that exist. We are looking at the end of all human law to be replaced by Divine Law, worse still one that favours men over women. We are looking at the end of Language other than Islamic ones. we are looking at the end of all other religions, non Muslim, or if not, then a situation where an infidel tax would be there for them to pay - Jizyah. We are looking at persecution of people for their religious beliefs, their sexual preferences and of course their sex(women). We are looking at the most unfair, one sided, oppressive law system that can never be questioned with Sharia.

The future implications of an Islamic society in the UK and the West are horrific. We would not advance but move back to the 7th Century. It would be Hell on Earth.

fellow traveller

October 30th, 2008 11:22pm

Verity: "Do they really believe that saying "Bush" over and over again, like an incantation, is going to have a magical effect?"

You're the first, and so far only, person to use the word "Bush" on this thread.

hadrian

October 30th, 2008 11:47pm

Those inclined to underplay the very real threats to our society that the madness of 'Jihad' poses really need to educate themselves. In Scotland we recently by the ski of our teeth escaped a bloodbath at Glasgow Airport, carried out it is unassailably clear, by Islamic fanatics 'excited' by Jihad. When I was down in London after the Tube and bus bombings these same madmen had planted a bomb outside a 'degenerate' nightclub in order to kill the moral delinquents therein...thus crudely spreading the joy of Islamic rule.These are but two instances...I could mention the deaths in Holland; the Danish newspaper furore; the more recent cowing of publishers, not forgetting the distant but revealing Rushdie fatwa. Hysteria? No, just plain realism.

Sam

October 31st, 2008 12:18am

I fear for our Country, our children and grandchildren if Obama is elected. Our enemies are waiting for the outcome of this election with baited breath. It will become a country like we have never known. Unfortunately, the blacks, and not all of them, the young college kids, who are so impressed by their college professors opinions that they believe every word told or lectured to them, the poor who have very little and are tired of being poor, and then of course the very lazy who have been the recipients of every available agency that hands out welfare checks, food stamps, rent subsidies and the like. Some of the people receiving need a start and for them, these programs are good. However, there are generation after generation of people who have been on the receiving end of all the Acorn projects since its inception. Of course Acorn doesn't want this to end nor do they want the programs to end. It will mean the end of a scam that has gone undealt with for years at the taxpayers expense. It took this election for many Americans to realize what's been going on and who's been behind the problems. We will kiss our pensions and social security good-bye. And yes, Obama's so call acquaintences-Bill Ayers,Prof. K. from Columbia, his pal from Iran and the rest of the terrorists that will join in and totally destroy our beloved country, our constitution. There will be no legacy for our future generations. In the eyes of every other country, we will be the pathetic country that allowed this to happen. SHAME on us. AMERICANS need to stand tall and be patriotic and fight for their country NOW.

HarleyDavidson

October 31st, 2008 1:06am

GoM
Tell me, GoM, has Obama ever run a small business? Maybe a town of any kind? How about a government department? Has Obama ever ran a state?

So where would Obama gained any economic experience along the way? Where exactly would Obama gained any government experience that he personally ran or was responsible for, ever?

Where exactly did Obama gain foreign policy experience? Did Obama ever sign a trade agreement with a foreign country?

Sarah Palin did each and ever one of the above.

Did Obama accomplish even one?

Verity

October 31st, 2008 1:22am

Fellow Traveller - apologies to all puzzled readers. Different thread.

Hadrian - John Smeaton is a Scottish hero. As you know, but it bears repeating, an Islamic nutter, having crashed a jeep into Glasgow Airport - but not as far as they wished, given the bollards and all - duh - caught fire when their vehicle exploded. Said terrorist ran about lit up like a flaming idiot.

The excellent John Smeaton, exhibiting no fear of the flames and no interest in putting them out, punched the terrorist in the face.

Said terrorist had been a medical student - tuition free, courtesy of the British taxpayer. He was, outrageously, taken care of by the NHS free of charge before he popped his sandals. How much did the pain shots cost the British taxpayer? How much did his bed and his oxygen cost? And the nurses and doctors looking over him for no reason. He's already sacrificed himself! Take his word for it!

I was puzzled at the time: why waste resources on trying to save the life of someone who was on cctv as having sacrificed himself to destroy British lives? Topsy-turvey socialist values - with a malign agenda - imposed on the British electorate without their permission.

Sarah Palin's Wink

October 31st, 2008 4:19am

GoM - You mention George "Dubbya" Bush.

The Dubya is a family pet name to distinguish him from his dad, the former President Bush.

You are rather intrusive when you presume to use this family nickname. You are also being illiterate, given that the name is Dubya. No reason for your intrusive double b. You look rather silly and really socially reaching.

When you don't understand something, it really is best not to refer to it. You can end up looking irretrievably silly.

Lee laurie

October 31st, 2008 7:15am

WG Graceless.........it's not the 30 or so people killed by terrorists in the UK that worries me so much as the thousands being butchered all around the world in the name of a medieval mind set.Including Muslims,I might add.
Maybe you should wake up and smell the daisies....as they say.

Grumpy

October 31st, 2008 7:16am

Marco Polo

A truly chilling summation, in words that most should understand. (ref also Londonistan - M Phillips)
Islamic idiology and its proponents are in for the long haul - they understand clearly that the erosian of our culture and systems will take time, and that is why they continue to preach hatred and jihadism in their schools/madrassas throughout the muslim world. To ensure that the next generation is well primed for the on-going battle.
We are truly engaged in what is now being termed as the 'Long War' ie the war of clashing civilizations.
question is - do we have the stomach for it, or will the forces of appeasement cause us to surrender to this onslaught!!

Conservative Cabbie

October 31st, 2008 8:32am

Anyone here good at reading voting figures. I've just culled the below from The Weekly Standard (so obviously a right wing bent) but it seems that early voting isn't going well for Obama - behind in Florida, no youth vote, no hispanics in Nevada, new voters not especially favouring Obama.

Interested to hear peoples thoughts:
"Democrats are beaming that their party is outperforming the Republicans in early voting, releasing numbers Wednesday that show registrants of their party ahead 54 percent to 30 percent among the 1.4 million voters who have gone to the polls early.

A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll gave McCain a 49-45 lead over Democrat Barack Obama among Floridians who have already voted.

And Republicans continued to show a traditional strength, leading 50 percent to the Democrats' 30 percent in the 1.2 million absentee ballots already returned.

Kerry lost Florida by five percent after leading early voting by a decent margin.

Other early voting shows similarly underwhelming results for the alleged flood of first-time voters and young voters Obama is supposed to draw:

But serious pollsters know that the electorate may have changed slightly since 2004, but that massive turnout will still reflect past performance. It will be the same, just much more of it. Consider what’s going on with early voters in swing state Nevada.

According to the Las Vegas Review Journal, a quarter of the state’s electorate had already voted by Sunday. But of those voters, just 20 percent were Hispanic, 14 percent were under 30, and 15 percent didn’t vote in the last three elections.

Early voters this year look pretty much like what we’ve seen in Nevada before. If that’s the case, polls based on a huge shift in the electorate that show Obama with a doughty lead would come up a cropper."

David

October 31st, 2008 8:39am

"Well, all the little Obama trolls herein are hitting the panic button with an unseemly lack of restraint"

Yeah, if only they wrote restrained, sensible articles, like claming the US will be destroyed in 4 years......

Israel

October 31st, 2008 8:48am

From Josh Marshall of Talkingpointsmemo:

McCain's Disgrace

"The McCain campaign has been throwing around so much mud and smears in recent weeks that it's easy to miss just how ugly and shameful their character assassination of Rashid Khalidi is. This is an entirely respectable, highly respected scholar. To go further into making a case for him would only be to enable and indulge McCain's sordid appeal to racism. For McCain, personally, to compare Khalidi to a neo-nazi, it's just an offense McCain should never be forgiven for. It's right down in the gutter with Joe McCarthy and the worst of the worst. Khalidi is in this new McCain set piece for one reason -- as a generic Arab, to spur the idea that Obama is foreign, friendly with terrorists and possibly Muslim."

One of the most disgusting things about this election is the appeal by the McCain camp t othe lowest instincts of the less intelligent section of the American rightwing and his reliance on the smear merchants who helped derail him 8 years ago, the tactics they use and those of the rightwing written press, television commentators and blogs including this one who have for weeks ramped up the innuendo, smears and outright falsehoods. John McCain USED to have a large by-partizan base who thought him to be a man of honour. John McCain USED to have a very large base of support amongst journalists and tv media who used to think him a man of honour and the simple fact is, by making his Faustian deal in his desperation to become President has seen all of that now gone. The rabid right may have found a new home on this site but whatever your rantings it seems as those in the US on the right have been shocked by a man they thought they knew becoming something they cannot stomach. Whatever happens next teusday one thing is for sure, people will remember the smears, the hate, the blatent lies and expecially the overt racial overtones of the McCain campaign which has been rightly called the sleezist of all time.

John Birch

October 31st, 2008 9:14am

Byron in Wahroonga:
The United States is a country that continually reinvents itself and that's part of its greatness. The idea that it is threatened by external and/or internal enemies is simply paranoia. The idea that it is threatened by a man who will get the most votes from Americans next week is even more ridiculous. Even if he turns out to be a lousy president, he would still have to sink to some depths to be as bad as the current one who through his policies has weakened the brand America image around the world while threatening civil liberties at home.

John Birch

October 31st, 2008 11:30am

HarleyDavidson: Sarah Palin did not sign a trade agreement with a foreign government--that's not a role played by state governors. She's attempted to develop a pipeline project that would run through Canadian territory but there's no agreement in place with Ottawa. Even Larry Eagleburger, a senior McCain advisor and a former US secretary of state, has admitted Palin is not ready to be president. In fact, he said in an interview "I devoutly hope that [she] would never be tested."

John Birch

October 31st, 2008 11:36am

Conservative Cabbie: We'll know for sure about the voting in 4 days. It will undoubtedly be closer than some are expecting (I have it at 326 Obama to 212 for McCain with Obama taking Ohio but McCain winning Florida), but the odds are just too stacked against McCain for him to pull it out. When he is having to run ads in Montana and do robocalls in his own home state (where a poll the other day had him two points ahead) at this late stage in the campaign clearly things don't look good.

fellow traveller

October 31st, 2008 11:53am

Cabbie

For poll reading I'd really recommend www.fivethirtyeight.com, which as cool and analytical as you could wish for, as the guy who runs it analyses the polls for strengths and weaknesses in their models, and is very open-minded.

Israel

October 31st, 2008 11:55am

HarleyDavidson:

Why don't we look at your girls "accomplishments"?

She left the town she was in charge of millions of dollars in debt, after it haveing none before she was mayor. She ws forced to pay 1.5 million MORE for an ice rink built in the town as she had cocked up the bidding process for the land it's built on. Is that the sort of thing your on about?

In a report in the Seattle Times 12/09/2008:

"Opportunities abound for Alaska governors to engage in Russian diplomacy, with the state host to several organizations focusing on Arctic issues. Anchorage is the seat of the Northern Forum, an 18-year-old organization that represents the leaders of regional governments in Russia, as well as Finland, Iceland and Canada, Japan, China and South Korea.
Yet under Palin, the state government — without consultation — reduced its annual financial support to the Northern Forum to $15,000 from $75,000, according to Priscilla Wohl, the group's executive director. That forced the forum's Anchorage office to go without pay for two months.
Palin — unlike the previous administrations of Gov. Frank Murkowski and Gov. Tony Knowles — also stopped sending representatives to Northern Forum's annual meetings, including one last year for regional governors held in the heart of Russia's oil territory." Is this the commitment to foreign policy you mean?

Barack Obama may not have the "economic expereience" you seem to crave but if you look at the response from reknowned economists including John McCain's OWN ECONOMIC ADVISOR it would look like he has the right ideas, and unlike Palin has not decided to put in a policy where they take the tax money from Oil firms and giving it to the people of the state (there's a name for that kind of politics, l think it begins with "S").
You also ask if he has any government experience? At last count, sponsorship of 820 laws in Illinois, and authorship of 152 bills and co-sponsorship of 427 in Washington including Lobbying, Climate Change, Nuclear Terrorism and Care for returning Troops may answer your question , but from what l have read above l doubt that you would like it. The 2007 Obama-Feingold Ethics Reform bill alone cannot be dismissed as simply non-existent. And since part of Palin's own claim to substance is an ethics reform bill, it seems extremely weird that you should believe that Obama's record is a total zero.

Your last laughable claim is on Foreign Policy experience.

Barack Obama has held assignments on the Senate Committees for FOREIGN RELATIONS, Environment and Public Works and Veterans' Affairs through December 2006. In January 2007, he left the Environment and Public Works committee and took additional assignments with Health, Education, Labor and Pensions and Homeland Security and GOVERNMENTAL AFFAIRS.He also became Chairman of the Senate's subcommittee on EUROPEAN AFFAIRS. As a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Obama made official trips to Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Central Asia and Africa.

Promote your girl as much as you want, the fact is the SERIOUS conservatives have walked away from her and McCain in droves regardless of the "accomplishments" you list above. You may dislike Obama but you claims are bunk which is why they are so easily refuted.

Alexandra

October 31st, 2008 12:27pm

WG Graceless calls Walid Phares' comments: “The desperate hyping up of 'danger'.”

So the jihad has left dead bodies in New York, London, Madrid, Delhi, Indonesia and so on is all ‘hype’.

Maybe you should tell that to the faces of the relatives of the dead and see if they think it’s hype.

John Birch: “The hysteria that dominates here is laughable.”

So it’s funny when thousands of people die from terrorism, is it?

You find The Koran funny when it says:

Sura (2:216) -"Fighting is prescribed for you, and ye dislike it. But it is possible that ye dislike a thing which is good for you, and that ye love a thing which is bad for you. But Allah knoweth, and ye know not."

And

Sura (3:151) - "Soon shall We cast terror into the hearts of the Unbelievers, for that they joined companions with Allah, for which He had sent no authority".

And so on.

Burt complains: “So 'Verity' and her like know all about Jihad despite the 'blackout of information' on it.”

There is a blackout on it.

The religious background is airbrushed out of all mainstream TV and most mainstream print media.

All we ever hear is the mantra of: “US foreign policy” – a complete lie since we had Dhiren Barot (now serving life) plotting terrorism in the UK before Iraq and Afgahistan and before 9/11 even – “Western decadence” – a complete lie since so many Islamic countries grow narcotics and have huge drug problems themselves.

The blackout is just this: a monolith of phony excuses with discussion of religion banned.

To show how extreme this blackout on the causes of the jihad is, we even had Dan Rivers (on UK’s ITV News 12 October 2008) interviewing a convicted Islamist terrorist bomber yelling at him that Islam was a religion of peace.

The bomber responded by quoting The Koran. He got six words out before the editors pulled the plug on that part of the report: “Blood by blood, soul by soul,” he read, and that was it. Mustn't let the public hear any more.

That is the sort of blackout we face. Why was this interview curtailed?

It was epitomised in the BBC’s The Power of Nightmares, which posits all of the phony arguments we’re hearing here from David, WG Graceless, John Birch et al.

Three hours of brazen rubbish dedicated to trying to brainwash us that the jihad is non-existent.

It won a bucketful of awards – and then 7/7 happened. The show is now never mentioned on the BBC and has (unusually for the BBC) never been repeated. The denial goes on but in less brazen ways.

Where is the evidence that Obama gets the scale of the threat we are under? Why does he have such strange alliances?

To quote Phares above: “We saw shreds of political alliances between his [Obama] campaign and groups affiliated with this particular ideology [Jihadism].”

If Obama ‘gets’ the jihad at all he wouldn’t have these alliances in the first place.

The fires in the economy are bad but in the end they can be put out.

It’s the fires of the jihad that could burn us all alive.

Conservative Cabbie

October 31st, 2008 12:50pm

John Birch/fellow traveller

If Obama isn't winning Florida, doesn't that show the polls to be a farce. If any state that Bush won was going to Obama it should have been Florida, it has been hardest hit by the house price recession.

I just saw 2 Democratic supporters on Fox admit that Florida was likely lost.

FWIW, I have a McCain win (surprise, surprise) 273-265. Maybe 274 if they get that spare Maine vote.

He'll lose Virginia and Colorado but will win Florida, Nevada, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Latest Mason-Dixon poll has McCain down 4 in PA but with 9% still undecided - I maintain that most of those undecideds will go McCains way.

Anyway, probably wishful thinking, all I hope is that it is close on the night. I've been waiting for this for 12 months+ following the process very closely. The last thing I want is for it all to be over in the first half hour.

Regards

Verity

October 31st, 2008 1:36pm

Israel - We don't refer to governors of states as "girls".

Any more than any of us who truly loathe him would dream of referring to Obama as a "boy".

Ronnie

October 31st, 2008 2:34pm

Conservative Cabbie, I love your fervour and I agree with you. An early massacre on Tuesday night would be a terrible anti-climax after all that has gone before.

Andrew

October 31st, 2008 2:40pm

One of the most infamous 'blackout' incidents (unreported by most media) was the disgraceful Madeleine Bunting hand-over-the-microphone incident at Hay on Wye.

One of the participants on the stage attempted to read from The Koran and Madeleine Bunting, a Guardian journalist, prevented him, by putting her hand over the microphone:

http://www.melaniephillips.com/diary/?p=1395

The fifth column have sway over the broadcast media and the print media and yet even in a situation like this will try to censor.

Orwellian hardly does it justice.

John Birch

October 31st, 2008 2:57pm

Alexandra:

I don't dispute there is a threat from terrorism but the idea that the survival of the United States is imperiled by them is laughable. And the threat has been made worse by the invasion of Iraq, something John McCain became one of the first American polticians to openly advocate. Invading Iraq, led to the U.S. taking the eye off the ball in dealing with Bin Laden and al-Qaeda--it provided them with a chance to regroup and re-establish themself in Pakistan, something the CIA has warned about. In the meantime, the invasion of Iraq provided al-Qaeda with a new generation of recruits and a new tool of recruitment. Western intelligence agencies warned of these implications in advance of the invasion.

John Birch

October 31st, 2008 3:05pm

Conservative Cabbie: Polls aren't an exact science. According to the polls, Obama was going to easily beat Clinton in New Hampshire but it didn't happen. In cases where it's close, it will come down to turnout and the Democrats appear to be the ones fired up by this election--look at the size of the crowds turning out for Obama in his various stops. Even the closer polls of the last few days help the Democrats because it means people won't not vote assuming it is a done deal. Bush won Florida twice so it is a Republican state, hence my pick. Ultimately, Obama has a number of different ways he can win while McCain has but a dwindling few.

Conservative Cabbie

October 31st, 2008 3:41pm

John birch/Ronnie

Agreed that the prospects look better for Obama, McCain has only one route to a win, if he loses any of the states I mentioned in my earlier post then it's all over.

You seem to be arguing against yourself somewhat by citing the NH primary. Obama has regularly overperformed in the polls (NH, PA and Ohio) and I think we're seeing some of that now. These poll results are only accurate if certain sectors vote extensivly fo Obama (African-American, Latino, Jews, Youth).

The African-Americans seem to be living up to their side of the bargain but at least in Nevada, the youth and latino votes aren't. Working class catholics (the Hillary Democrats) seem to be switching somewhat to McCain (particularly relevant in Ohio and Pennsylvania) and an interesting exit poll has just come out of Israel. In it, an exit poll of Americans in Israel, those voting have gone 76% in favour of McCain. More incredibly, 46% of those polled were registered Democrats. Of course this might be a one off, but there is indications that what's showing in the polls isn't being reflected in the actual votes being cast.

My point is, there is some genuine cause for optimism for McCain supporters, but it is cautionary optimism. The youth vote may well on election day turn out in huge numbers and everything I said becomes academic, but that does mean placing faith in a group that have never materialised en masse and so far haven't this cycle either.

My prediction of a McCain win isn't just blind optimism or fervour as Ronnie put it, there are genuine reasons for it.

Verity

October 31st, 2008 3:56pm

John Birch - When I think of Iraq, I think of all those smiling faces and all those purple fingers.

Verity

October 31st, 2008 4:12pm

An interesting piece about Colin Powell by Thomas Sowell, a Senior Fellow of the Hoover Institute and an ace journalist. (My favourite after St Mark of Steyn.) He discusses Powell's lack of reliability or any secure moral moorings. http://townhall.com/columnists/ThomasSowell/2008/10/31/obama,_powell_and_popularity?page=2

Marian C

October 31st, 2008 5:19pm

Marco Polo, Hadrian, Conservative Cabbie and Verity; Very well said to all of you, I concur with all your comments. Keep them coming

Ronnie

October 31st, 2008 8:00pm

Yeah Verity, I remember everyone saying that when Colin Powell was winning the first Irag war and when he became Secretary of State. I bet your second favourite 'journalist' was one of Powell's biggest fans in those days.

Ronnie

October 31st, 2008 8:06pm

Conservative Cabbie, don't misunderstand. I didn't mean 'fervour' in the way you suspect.

I have read what you have been saying with genuine interest and I respect your energy in following the polls so closely. I don't know if you are right but if you are then it will be a very, very interesting story and will occupy political analyists for many years.

Lets see how it finally turns out, its not over till its over.

Byron in Wahroonga

October 31st, 2008 9:33pm

***idea that it is threatened by a man who will get the most votes from Americans next week is even more ridiculous***

You obviously never lived through the Carter years, Mr. Birch.

If you had, you'd know that a left-leaning president ashamed of his country's destiny is more dangerous than a hundred Bin Ladens.

Verity

October 31st, 2008 10:40pm

Ronnie - Thomas Sowell is a brilliant analyst, a highly readable writer and a fine conservative thinker. And he holds a prestigious position, as well as being a national columnist and is very much in the establishment. He clearly doesn't hold a high opinion of Colin Powell or Barack Obama.

Sami Abdallah

October 31st, 2008 11:10pm

How weird to see those British citizens playing smart with the world reality, probably before going having a nice drink in a bar. They know it all, they have figured it all of course. Until the Jihadis blew up their "tubes" and buses on 7/7. "Oah" said the smart Brits, "maybe it is because of some stress these young men have been going through?" The came the plot to blow up trans atlantic flights. "Oah, said the Oxford snobs, it is because of racism." Then came the 45 doctors and the explosion in Scotland."Oah, said the Cambridge upper educated English. "Perhaps it is because of disenfranchisement." Our friends the British are so high up in the upper levels of intelliegence that they can't see their neighborhoods going Talibanesque. "It can't happen to us, we the Brits." Poor mates, they are being eaten alive and their society will have to face the worse urban distrubancies a-la-France 2005 (but uglier) before a second generation of citizens of her majesty would be able to regain their freedom from terror. Unfortunately the smartest people on the Planet can't figure out what is happening to their cities and streets. Too high class to admit that they are penetrated to the bones by Jihadism. They can't pronounce that term. Too primitive perhaps? Nevertheless the academic elite is happy and thrive. As long as it enjoys its little pretty and complicated life, the real world doesn't matter. What matters is that no one tells them that trouble is ahead.

Beth George

October 31st, 2008 11:28pm

Goodness! There were only dozens of people killed in the UK because of terrorism compared to those who are dying in bed. Thus, we should wage a war on beds, not on terror. No?
Better, read this:

"In 1940 there were those many planes flying over London and dropping what seems to have been objects that exploded when they touched the houses. Many civilians were killed apparently after these objects exploded. Those planes had all strange signs on them and seemed to have been flying from the East. These incidents took place during that summer before they stopped gradually. Authorities should have dispatched psychologists to check the pilots and investigate the stresses they were under and if it were British citizens who have caused these stresses. But more dangerous were those few so-called journalists -extremists- who wrote that all these pilots and planes were part of a war waged against Britain. These fringe journalists were spreading fear in the hearts of the citizens, probably for political reasons."
Oxford New Reader of the History of WWII.

Frank P

November 1st, 2008 12:39am

I don't think that jihad will 'win' against the West. The endemic pacifism and Dhimmitude that is already in place and the dearth of recent attacks on Western targets indicate to me that the militants have been told to cool it by the Mullahs, who realise that infiltration and the waiting game is already being so successful that it's just a matter of time. They don't have to fight when the surrender is already under way. They are out Gramsci-ing Gramsci. The UK is already a goner. They are buying our banks and real estate already aand milking us dry with the price of oil. With Obama in office militant Islam can relax; he'll soften Uncle Sam up for them. Mark Steyn's prescience about Eurabia is spot on and will be lauded on the blogs of Judeo-Christian undergound movement of the future. For those of you who still haven't read America Alone, buy it, particularly if you like to laugh as you're receiving bad news. I'm afraid Mark will have to change the title to 'America Also', if Obama gets his ass first past the post next week. Don't let it happen Uncle Sam, please, we're counting on you. Mind you we were counting on you in 1939, too, I remember it well - so we may have to wait a another coupla years or so. ;-)
Only kidding guys - what would we have done without you. And before anybody reminds me that Uncle Joe had a hand in it too, yes - I remember that too! And look what it led to.

John

November 1st, 2008 2:42am

Actually Ronnie, a lot of people at the time said that Powell should have taken Sadam out then, saved a lot of trouble.

fellow traveller

November 1st, 2008 2:56am

Cabbie

Will have a tenner on the result with you! And I'll give you 3-1. I won't attempt to tread on fivethirtyeight's analysis, but Florida is a complicated state. Most important: the cuban expat community is firmly republican and very responsive to an anti-communist pitch, probably more so than anywhere else.

Maybe close on the night is good - it's better if everyone feels that their vote has meaning.

Ronnie

November 1st, 2008 7:45am

Verity, thanks for the CV. You didn't answer my point, as usual.

Markosh

November 1st, 2008 12:17pm

An unbelievable majority of contemporary journalists and social scientists are immersed in Marxist millenarianism. Luckily, that is becoming a common knowledge and it shows in falling number of papers sold. The success of Wall Street Journal shows that internet is more an excuse for the debacle and that the real cause is a broader public perception of a moral debasement of the media. Probably gullible high school graduates still enrol into Gramscian social studies but do they in such numbers as in 90ies?
Nevertheless, history shows that there could be a curious and sinister relation between charismatic demagogues and so many of women voters. Aforementioned women, hooked by leftists' trash political talk are immensely larger part of a society than any other special rights group in the west that likewise mostly endorses the left. We can observe this in US 2008 elections. According to the polls Mr. Obama attracts majority of women of any group in US. There’s no doubt that he is obviously an extremely talented mob captivator, a charismatic demagogue, as Thomas Sowell describes him. If that is so, there's a real and present danger for a democracy, especially if the majority of MSM&Academia’s fight against Western civilization continues.
We all could just hope that US stays as a beacon of freedom to be able to defend the rest of the world, especially the Europe, from itself. Unfortunately, the danger is not just this US election, but in any time in the future. US 2008 election is the perfect sample but also was Serbia during Milosevic, or Argentina, probably also Venezuela, Russia etc. Would such developments arise when future Chinese demagogues start to burn a supremacist’s fervour at the beginning of their parliamentary democracy, presumably in 2030?

Ronnie

November 1st, 2008 3:01pm

John, as I remember it, it was President George Bush that decided not to finish Sadam off because he didn't have a mandate and he wanted to avoid the mess his son subsequently got into.

I also remember Powell being touted for the Republican ticket, even as candidate for President, and I don't recall his 'moral equivalence' being mentioned then. He was a national hero.

It is simply childish, but not unexpected, for him to now be excoriated by his former, oh-so-precious, supporters.

Frank P

November 1st, 2008 5:01pm

All those who have the vote, you will find this interesting:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yvc0tYG_YpA

For all those who are just observers; you may find it even more interesting. Wise words from a fast-talking brother and it ain't the Obamouth!

Verity

November 1st, 2008 6:56pm

Markosh, I don't agree. Women are more intuitive than men and millions of them see right through Obama. I don't know a single woman who would vote for him.

Oddly enough, he's getting a big gay vote. Lots of posters up in swanky gay neighbourhoods. These guys have never voted Democrat in their lives and there they are with Obama posters on their manicured lawns and their glistening windows. A Republican gay friend of mine in one of those neighbourhood was close to the tipping point. I had to pull him back from the brink! "No", I cried! You'll never forgive yourself!" I pleaded. The fact is, gay men love to think they are on the social cutting edge. They love to be in at the head of a trend. (Have they seen some of those Obama supporters? Eeeeewwww!) They love to feel totally daring.

Anyway, I think I saved my friend, but I don't know for sure ... I think I may have neutralised him and got him to stay home if he won't vote Rep.

I'm surprised at the gays not having made a gay icon out of Sarah Palin, though.

Verity

November 1st, 2008 7:47pm

Frank P - thank you so much for the link? Who is that guy? He is fabulous! (Cute, too.)

Conservative Cabbie

November 1st, 2008 9:09pm

Ronnie

On Colin Powell. "It is simply childish, but not unexpected, for him to now be excoriated by his former, oh-so-precious, supporters"

Rather than being praised as insightful by the same people who excoriated him previously for his role in the Iraq war. Please, some balance.

Hayward Maberley

November 2nd, 2008 6:41am

Verity,
Another target for you.
All those gays with "their manicured lawns and their glistening windows."
They are gay not stupid.
They have seen where 12 years of GOP with a majority in Congress and 8 years of a GOP President have taken the country.
Thy may not want another 4 years of GOP.
It has nothing to do with you dismissive "They love to feel totally daring."
Palin a "gay icon" I do not think her church would approve. Would she not have to disavow them while reminding them that they will all surely "Burn in Hell!"

Conservative Cabbie

November 2nd, 2008 9:17am

Just a thought on Obama's auntie.

For me, this is not a big thing. Of all the things that trouble me about Obama, this is way down the list. But what I do find interesting is how this will be handled if Obama wins on tuesday.

This woman is effectively a fugitive from the law, she has had a deportation order. Will Obama be pressured to focus on her as a special case, will he be forced to ensure that she is put on a plane or will he be allowed to let justice take it's course. I don't know but it's going to be a dilemma which will to some extent distract from his first hundred days. Any thoughts?

Ronnie

November 2nd, 2008 9:38am

That's my point, Conservative Cabbie, balance and consistency.

Don't make the mistake of thinking that I am praising a former member of George W Bush's cabinet.

Conservative Cabbie

November 2nd, 2008 9:52am

As some may be aware, I've made some posts that tend to fly in the face of all the polls. My contention with the polls is that they weight too much on party id (whether someone is a registered Democrat or Republican). Pollsters this cycle had weighted very heavily in favour of the Democrats to reflect the massive voter registration drives that Obama's campaign have carried out. However, the pollsters, I contend, have weighted far too heavily in the Dems favour, for example Pew Research believes that Democratic support over the GOP is the same as it was following The Watergate scandal. Bear in mind, in 2004, the GOP and the Dems had exactly the same party id, now pollsters have it at 5-15% to the Dems.

Heres an explanation of how it adversly affects the polls for McCain.

"The media polls are heavily weighted towards Democrats in terms of Party ID. With that kind of heavy weighting, it would be impossible for McCain to show any lead even if he had a small led among independents. For example, Rasmussen currently assumes the following party id break down: Democrats 40%, Republicans 32.8%, and Independents 27.2%. He is assuming a whopping 7 percent advantage in party id for the Democrats. This is a big barrier to overcome in these polls. If we assume a 85% Democrat support for Obama and 85% Republican support for McCain and a 50/50 breakdown among independents (ignore undecided and third party candidates) this would translate to a poll finding of 52.5% for Obama and 47.5% for McCain which incidentally gives the same 5% spread as in the current Rasmussen poll.

Note that all of this is simply from the 7% party id advantage. If we reduce the party id spread to 3%, the numbers would change to 51% for Obama and 49% to McCain. Now if we assume that McCain picks off more Democrats than Obama does Republicans, 85% Democrats for Obama and 90% Republicans for McCain then the outcome will be 49.3% for Obama and 50.7% for McCain, a clear LEAD."

Sorry for the long post, his is a bit of a pet subject for me right now. Hope you found it interesting.

Verity

November 2nd, 2008 2:46pm

Her Majesty Howard Mayberly misses the point, again (and again, and again) of my post.

Where did I imply that gay men are stupid? People who own houses in the neighbourhoods to which I refer, and where so many of my friends live, did not get those houses, and those gleaming late model cars parked in their garages, by being stupid, uneducated or lacking drive, savvy and the ability to think ahead.

I think you are a wee bit over-sensitive.

Read my post. That you didn't is clear from this moronic sentence: "Palin a "gay icon" I do not think her church would approve."

I had written that I was surprised she hadn't become a gay icon because she is pretty, stylish and has a robust sense of humour. And she takes the stage well. This type of female personally usually appeals to gay men. I cannot understand how you feel that the approval or the disapproval of her church (and I don't agree with you anyway) would deter any gays who wanted to make her into a gay icon. Also, the assumption that her church would give a monkey's either way is so provincial. Your imagination is, to say the least, rather over-heated.

I normally skip over your dreary, fussy, not to say fusty, little posts, but I am not going to let your "sly" suggestion (as in, it came clumping onto the site in jackboots) that I have written something demeaning about gay men stand. Like most women, I feel an affinity with gay men.

Although, not all of them, missy.

Ronnie

November 2nd, 2008 5:01pm

I think, through the prism of Verity's ever-stranger contributions to these threads, that the Republican's tactic of dumbing-down debate has finally come back to bite them on the arse.

The point has arrived at which her constant inability to conduct even the most basic rational discourse works against the very credidibilty of those she purports to support.

Hayward Maberley

November 3rd, 2008 2:43am

Verity,
As noted by Israel maybe you should not be fed. But just one more from me than I will leave you and you rantings.
Thanks for both the incorrect
spelling my name and the strange royal entitling. Neither faches me too much, though I suppose as one ever hopeful for the Commonwealth of Australia to become a republic I should firmly reject the royal entitling.
As fo the rest of your rant. as usual you did not address the topic expressed. But having now heeded both my son and Israel, am I suprised!
Good to know you get on with gays, so do I. But that church of Sarah Palin's definitely woild not.

John

November 11th, 2008 9:12pm

I am an American. I basicly study all Mr. Phares has written, said, and done. I am only 20, but hope to open the eyes of other Americans. I hope that I can get my Congressman to read and understand Walids' message's. They are key to our survival. God bless

Melanie Phillips

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Melanie Phillips is a Daily Mail columnist. She also writes for the Jewish Chronicle and is a panellist on BBC Radio Four's Moral Maze. Her most recent book is 'Londonistan', published by Encounter and Gibson Square.

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