Wednesday 8 October 2008

 

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Michael Henderson

Michael Henderson suggests


The other consensus

Sunday, 21st October 2007

 

 

Some more informed common sense about man-made global warming in this article by sceptical scientists who, ahem, don’t exist. They propose the following questions to be put to the over-heated warmers:

2.) How do you know the ‘vast majority of scientists’ agree with your viewpoint?
Despite the confident proclamations of Al Gore, the only place that a climate change science consensus exists is in what Essex and McKitrick call ‘official science.’ the collective voice of governments and so-called ‘science authorities.’ But this is not real science. Among qualified researchers, there is a debate raging about the causes of the past century’s modest warming. Ignoring science, but sensing a massive shift in public awareness of the issue, politicians have jumped on the climate catastrophe bandwagon.

3.) If we delayed carbon dioxide, or CO2, reduction decisions by a few years to allow examination of the science, what would be the impact on climate?
Essentially none. Even its supporters admit that complete compliance with Kyoto by all nations held to limits would result in less than a 0.1° C difference to global climate a half century from now.

4.) How closely has climate tracked CO2 levels in the past?
About 440 million years ago, when CO2 levels are estimated to have been over 10 times today’s, our planet was in the depths of the coldest period in the last half billion years. At other times, high CO2 levels coincided with warm periods. There is no meaningful correlation with temperature in the geological record.

Al Gore points out that, over the past half million years, the Antarctic ice core records show a link between temperature and CO2. What he neglects to mention is that these records consistently show that temperature rises some 800 years before CO2 rise, not after it. Even over the past century, the CO2 and global warming correlation is poor, with significant cooling taking place between 1940 and 1980 while human produced CO2 emissions were increasing rapidly.

And what is the likely response to these facts? We can write the script now:

‘evilinsaneooilindustrystoogesworsethanholocaustdeniersflatearth
rightwingdrivelconsensusohmygodIjustcan’tbelieveyouarestillsaying
suchthingswhenveryimportantpeopleindeedaresayingthepreciseopposite
whichthereforewemustallbelievewithoutquestionalgorenobelherohowdareyou.’

Or some such intelligent, evidence-based and above all scientific reply.


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Will

October 22nd, 2007 1:25pm

Univariate explanations of complex phenomena are unlikely. The 1940-80 'non-correlation' may be explained by the cooling effect of Sulphur dioxide and particulate polution...once this polution was combatted, the carbon/temperature link returns. Methane is more of a problem and there are links here with mankinds move from hunter/gathering, via nomadic shepherding to farming are two upward step changes in methane volumes and temperature. Growing middle class culture shifts to meat-eating in ChIndia adds to the food inflation problem!

Max Kaye

October 22nd, 2007 3:17pm

David Bellamy's article in today's edition of The Times is highly amusing and supportive of 'heretical' views.

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