Saturday 7 November 2009

Jobs at Telegraph

The Grand Bargain?

Wednesday, 6th May 2009


The Confidential Reporter blog has suggested an even more baroque interpretation of Obama’s grovelling to Iran: that the Grand Bargain -- denied by Defence Secretary Robert Gates -- involves America seeking Iran’s assistance in an American invasion of Pakistan to prevent a more radical Islamist administration there from giving nuclear weapons to al Qaeda. This, says CR, is based on the totally mistaken belief that Ahmadinejad is a Stalin figure, a devil with whom it is possible to do deals – whereas in fact the correct analogy for Ahmadinejad is not Stalin but Hitler:

Unlike the monster Stalin, who, in the years leading up to World War II, consistently put the Soviet Union's national interest, as he saw it, ahead of the country’s Communist ideology, to the point of betraying overseas Communists (his ‘useful idiots’) and the cause of world revolution--from China to Germany--Ahmadinejad intends to overthrow the balance of power, globally as well as regionally, by destroying Israel, driving America (the ‘Great Satan’) out of the Middle East, and dominating the region for decades to come--for starters. He dreams of a ‘world without America and Israel’ and he intends to make his dreams come true.

If this theory is correct – big if – the explanation for forcing Israel to sacrifice its security on the grounds that a Palestine state is necessary to get the Arab states on side in the fight to contain Iran clearly doesn’t hold up. In which case, Obama would be throwing Israel under the bus just because he wants it gone altogether -- as analysed here in terrifyingly plausible detail.

Either way, however, Iran doesn’t seem terribly impressed:

In further comments on U.S.-Iran relations, Khatami said: "Praise to the Imam [Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, founder of the Islamic Revolution in Iran] who said, 'If America was a human being, we would talk with it' – but you are not human beings, and this is the same nation it was 30 years ago... and [therefore] say: 'Death to America!'"

So much for the American hand of friendship. And as Amir Taheri points out, the only result of Obama’s overtures to Iran has been -- to strengthen Iran:

Convinced that the Obama administration is preparing to retreat from the Middle East, Iran's Khomeinist regime is intensifying its goal of regional domination. It has targeted six close allies of the U.S.: Egypt, Lebanon, Bahrain, Morocco, Kuwait and Jordan, all of which are experiencing economic and/or political crises.

...Arab states are especially concerned because Tehran has succeeded in transcending sectarian and ideological divides to create a coalition that includes Sunni movements such as Hamas, the Islamic Jihad, sections of the Muslim Brotherhood, and even Marxist-Leninist and other leftist outfits that share Iran’s anti-Americanism.

Indeed, Shiite Iran has already made numerous Molotov/Ribbentrop-style pacts with Sunni jihadists. Doubtless that’s another little detail that the Obama administration finds just too inconvenient to note.

  

 

 

 

 


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porkbelly

May 7th, 2009 1:19am

You are giving much too much credit to Obama in supposing he could cook up a plan this sophisticated. More likely is that he - good liberal that he is - simply believes that if Israel would just make more more more concessions the Palestinians' anger would evaporate (the same way his "Apology Tour" was supposed to usher in a new era of Euro-American security cooperation). The Iranians know his type all too well - all they need to do is keep insisting that America is just one concession away from peace...just one more, and one more, and one more...the North Vietnamese used to be past masters of this (it served them well).

Tom the Redhunter

May 7th, 2009 3:39am

I certainly wouldn't put it past Obama to try and strike a "grand bargain" with Iran. Nor would I be surprised to see him throw Israel under the bus, as you say in your previous post. Iran might "accept" it to throw us all off guard, while they readied their missiles.

Ronnie

May 7th, 2009 8:38am

None of you really get it do you?

The real plan is to pally-up to the Iranians, with their new nuclear capability, Russia and Afghanistan to over-run Pakistan at its moment of greatest weakness.

But then, to use all these forces, co-ordinated by the US military, to launch a huge ground offensive against China.

After the inevitable victory and occupation of that enormous territory and all its resources, there will be a socialist/marxist/islamofascist/lilly-livered-lefty/bus-driving hegemony for centuries to come. And no repenting!

Oh, and Israel will be reconstituted in occupied Outer Mongolia.

We were warned about Obama and now it's too late, the wheels are already in motion.

The wheels on the bus go round and round,
Round and round,
Round and round.

The wheels on the bus go round and round,
all day long.

Conservative Cabbie

May 7th, 2009 10:33am

Ronnie

"Oh, and Israel will be reconstituted in occupied Outer Mongolia."

So he's not abandoning Israel after all, just relocating it. That's a relief. Don't you forsee a problem with the diaspora of the minions of Genghis Khan though. I can see a huge problem with suicide Yaks.

flabslab

May 7th, 2009 11:14am

I smell a rat. Ahmadonjihad is grinning like the cat that got the cheese and definitely has something up his sleeve (probably a rat), which is why he keeps laughing up it. He's laughing at us, but why?

On the face of it, the Iranian position doesn't make sense. Their numero uno priority is to develop a bomb, so why are they simultaneously broadcasting to the whole world their intention to annihilate the one country that could possibly stop them? They are clearly goading Israel and leaving her absolutely no option but to strike. Iran wants to be attacked. They have a dastardly plan. But what?

My fear is that they already have some nukes, possibly acquired from the Soviets or the Chinese, and they are already in place in Gaza, Lebanon, Israel or maybe even in America. This might explain the kid-gloves-carrot-and-carrot approach that America has been taking with Iran for years now.

But not to worry, now we have hope'n'change. Obama will sit this one out. He hates Israel (and America) and instinctively sides with Islamists and Communists. I don't believe he'll invade Pakistan. He thinks he may need Iran as an alternate supply/retreat route into/out of Afghanistan when Pakistan falls. He's effectively given the crazy-as-a-fox mullahs the green light to destroy Israel and I'm very afraid that they have the means and they mean to do it.

The Washington Post is reporting traces of highly enriched plutonium being found in Egypt. You can bet your life that the Saudis, the Turks, the Sudanese and just about every tin-pot tyrannical state from Venezuela to Zimbabwe is going to be rushing to join the nuclear club.

The nuclear cat is out of the bag but this cat sides with the above mention rat. Unfortunately, so does the new leader of the (soon not to be) free world.

It's going to be bloody.

Occasional Ostrich

May 7th, 2009 11:47am

the only result of Obama’s overtures to Iran has been -- to strengthen Iran:

No, no, No, Melanie, all this has done is to get Iran to show a slightly different face to the west, and for America to learn something in the process. Ahmedinejad won't be there forever, he IS subject to elections, unlike Stalin or Hitler, and many sensible Iranians are wincing at his performance.
I appreciate your impatience in wanting to get The Middle East peace process settled, after over 60 years, but this has many years (and changes of governments) to play out yet

The Triguy

May 7th, 2009 12:16pm

There are too many divisions in the Islamic world with far too many leaders and groups being jealous of one another. The way to unite them behind one leader is for that leader to be a victim. AJ will sacrifice part of Iran to Israel. He will then have the support he needs to be the leader of the rest of the Islamic world--at least for awhile.
As for bombs, let's stop thinking about the big one. Instead let's start thinking about lots of little "dirty" bombs that can do just as much damage to the infrastructure as well as the economy. If I were him, I'd have dozens of them hidden (or on their way) to Israel and parts of the middle east. I also wouldn't worry about the US because the current leadership will be tripping over itself to stay neutral in an effort to act as the peacemaker whcih it can never be.

Ronnie

May 7th, 2009 1:09pm

Cabbie, come on! I've thought about this long and hard. Outer Mongolia is massive, there is plenty of room for everyone there, so much that the different ethnic groups never even have to see each other (there might even be oil, but keep that quiet.)

As for Yaks, they just don't care about anything.

I'm telling you Cabbie, if we are going to have a grand conspiracy theory, I say lets have a lulu.

So, it's not so much being thrown under a bus as put on a train.

logdon

May 7th, 2009 1:17pm

Maybe this explains.....

http://jeannieology.wordpress.com/2009/05/04/obama%E2%80%99s-nefarious-narcissism/

Here's a relevant section.

Feeling judged for treating England’s Gordon Brown in a discourteous manner, Obama symbolically flips the proverbial bird and bows acquiescently to a Saudi King. He desires correspondence with Ahmadinejad but is hesitant about meeting Israeli Prime Minister, Netanyahu. Obama struts around with a conceited, in-your-face megalomaniacal egotism, which is “dictator like nature.” With every retort to incongruity, he swiftly reminds his critics who is the head rooster in the coop.

Original Tony

May 7th, 2009 2:50pm

What's happening with the moderator? Very few of my postings are displayed these days. Has the New World Order got hold of you?

Conservative Cabbie

May 7th, 2009 2:50pm

Ronnie

"come on! I've thought about this long and hard"

I can tell.

"there might even be oil, but keep that quiet."

You are aware that there are a lot of right wingers on this site, and that the Obama administration has declared being right wing tantamount to being a terrorist. In other words, the FBI, CIA and NSA all follow this site closely (you don't really think An American is a humble American housewife do you). Now you've let the cat out of the bag about Mongolian oil, the insidious neo-con cabal that control the corridors of power in Washington (at least on Alinsky's and Ayers' days off) are already planning the invasion.

nonsense?

May 7th, 2009 2:54pm

Quoted by with apparent approval by logdon:

"With every retort to incongruity, he swiftly reminds his critics who is the head rooster in the coop."

Can anyone please explain to me what on earth this is supposed to mean. What in particular is a retort to incongruity?

Penny

May 7th, 2009 4:08pm

Conservative Cabbie:

"..I can see a huge problem with suicide Yaks."

Thank you for the best smile of the day!

THX1138

May 7th, 2009 4:35pm

Cabbie& Ronnie - Not any oil in Mogolia but plenty of coal and America has lots of that already. It must be the yak milk that Obama wants I heard it goes great in those lattes us libruls love so much:) I'm off bit feel a bit too much a gawping tourist on this far right hand edge of the blogosphere, I'll leave you all to it.

An American

May 7th, 2009 4:57pm

C. Cabbie and Ronnie,

Thank you for my chuckles of the day. You guys should get together and write comedy...except American comics wouldn't be able to use anything that smacked of the truth...they are so in awe of Obama, they can't find anthing interesting, funny or heaven forbid, controversial about this extraordinary, exhalted human being.

Cabbie, you've let the cat out of the bag about me...you'll have to show more respect in the future. Since no one respects a humble American housewife...

Ronnie, I have to agree with you on this one...Arabs are tribes, they would never be able to come together on anything, especially this convoluted political analysis...most of world leaders have a hard time tying their own shoe laces.

solemnman

May 7th, 2009 5:22pm

Why would a country ,without the means to do it, threaten to wipe another country,with the means to do it,off the map? The answer ,I believe, is they would not.
What moral or strategic impediment would there have been to prevent cash strapped North Korea from selling a few nukes from their stockpile? What wouldn't oil rich Iran have been willing to pay to acquire the two nukes Rasfanjani thought necessary for Israel's destruction?

RobNY

May 7th, 2009 6:16pm

A must read column by Mark Steyn.
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/viewarticle.cfm/israel-today--the-west-tomorrow-15134?search=1

RobNY

May 7th, 2009 6:57pm

Everyone should read the comment from "Flabslab" who is fifth from the top. He is on to something

Gil

May 7th, 2009 7:39pm

Obama is making overtures towards Iran because in the 21st Century you have to explore all options before resorting to force. I believe that Obama, Clinton Gates et al know that it's a matter of time before force has to be used. However, Obama was elected to show a fresh US face to the world in a PR sense. As part of the Obama 'brand equity' he needs to show that he is different to Bush. This is pure politics. After all, Obama is a politician and that is why there are elections.

However, this is merely the public face. In the background things are proceeding as planned. Why? Because the US defence establishment as well as the Europeans know that the game with Iran has to be resolved sooner or later. Within this time window, they are showing to the world that they are trying to do all that is possible to moderate Iran's views. Perhaps Ahmadinejad will lose the elections to a moderate. In the meantime, Israel is practising and preparing. When the day comes, the US will not flinch and will do the right thing by Israel and, by extension, the free world.

It's called 'going through the motions' which is what the US and UK did at the UN before the invasion of Iraq.

I'm amazed you can't see this.

Jenny

May 7th, 2009 7:59pm

Either this blog is being censored a lot today or stuff isn't getting through.

I'm hearing this from others in cyberspace too.

Come on, cough up what you've received.

Henry

May 7th, 2009 8:04pm

This is not the right number of posts.

eby

May 7th, 2009 8:14pm

RobNY is correct. Because flabslab has a point. What if Iran is wanting to be attacked in order to unleash, with a sense of moral righteousness, its retaliatory attacks which could be just about anywhere?

And the fact is Israel is constitutionally incapable of reacting with the barbarism that one would associate with such an action. Question is whether Israel will react even after it's attacked by Iran. It will, and it's this balance of terror that's keeping things in that hothouse in the current state of equilibrium or disequilibrium.

Bill M

May 7th, 2009 8:28pm

"Some seem to believe we should negotiate with terrorists and radicals, as if some ingenious argument will persuade them they have been wrong all along. We have heard this foolish delusion before. As Nazi tanks crossed into Poland in 1939, an American senator declared: "Lord, if I could only have talked to Hitler, all this might have been avoided." We have an obligation to call this what it is--the false comfort of appeasement, which has been repeatedly discredited by history."
--an American president addressing the Israeli Knesset

A little known fact is the Bush administration DID have senior level talks with Iranian leaders at the ambassadorial level and above, 28 times over his eight years in office, though the media would have you believe that Bush stonewalled Iran. Was this appeasement? Maybe, but I doubt it. What we do all know is that these talks were ineffective.

Do we really believe the Great Appeaser will do any better?

Bill M

May 7th, 2009 9:37pm

"Some seem to believe we should negotiate with terrorists and radicals, as if some ingenious argument will persuade them they have been wrong all along. We have heard this foolish delusion before. As Nazi tanks crossed into Poland in 1939, an American senator declared: "Lord, if I could have only talked to Hitler, all this might have been avoided." We have an obligation to call this what it is--the false comfort of appeasement, which has been repeatedly discredited by history." --an American president

A little known fact (an one that our major media has ignored and irresponsibly left unreported) is that the Bush administration, represented at the ambassadorial level and above, held 28 high level talks with Iranian leaders over his eight-year tenure as president. Can this be considered appeasement? Most likely not considering Bolton was a considerable influence during a good portion of that time. What is clear is that they led nowhere. Is it because of the ineffectiveness of Bush's strategy or because Iran is hellbent on acquiring a nuclear weapon at the cost of its own destruction?

If Obama wants to continue talks, why not? The only problem with this is that a narcissist like Obama will believe that he, more so than any other, can speak to Iran in a way that the Supreme Leader will understand and sympathize and halt Iran's rapid approach to it's first nuclear weapon. After all, with Obama's Muslim upbringing, only he has the wisdom to talk sense into these violent Islamist dictators. The problem is that Obama will be willing to dole out concessions as liberally as he tossed around the stolen line, "We are the change we have been waiting for."

Well, the change we have been waiting for will come in 2010 when a nuclear armed Iran steps on the scene from stage left.

As the Obama continues to neuter the power and influence of the U.S., we will be left hands-on-the-ankles, so to speak, with Iran's nuclear-tipped missile headed to an exposed and weakened West.

Though Obama does understand the severity of the situation and what's at stake, the problem is that his advisers have not settled on an approach except to tie it to the B.S. Palestinian issue (Boring!) and let Israel fend for itself.

Obama doesn't have the nuts to go military because he's already served them on a silver platter to every nation on the planet in apology for our behavior over the past 300 years.

So, Pray for Israel and the peace of Jerusalem. May the Lord be with you as you face the greatest threat to your safety and right to exist in your 61 year history.

Conservative Cabbie

May 7th, 2009 9:38pm

An American

You should know by now that I have a great deal of respect for you because...

"no one respects a humble American housewife..."

Descendents of the redoubtable frontierswomen who could shoot the testicles off a stampeding buffalo, reshingle the roof, chop wood, milk the cows and still have time to have a hearty meal on the table for her carrousing gun-totin' husband when he got home. Where would the western (or America) be without the "humble American housewife".

Sorry to have outed you from your secretive double existence. Just call me Deep Throat.

An American

May 8th, 2009 1:33am

C. Cabbie,

Not to worry, I considered it a compliment, although I have had a sucessful professional life.

Actually, I was raised on a ranch. My father was a third generation rancher and I actually did some of the tasks you described minus shooting the testicles off a buffalo, but I did remove the real things from a few young bulls. There really is a 'real' west still out there which even today, many Americans are not aware of.

I'm so glad I had the opportunity to grow up on a ranch. It taught me at a very young age to be independent and creative, have a sense of fairness, love nature and have an abiding respect for my country.

That's why I am so angry when I see a Chicago 'wimp' ruin everything that my forefathers worked so hard to create.

Ronnie

May 8th, 2009 6:39am

Oh, Cabbie, I think you may be right.

We must prepare ourselves as I'm certain that our Gordon will want to be part of it, backing President Obama all the way.

On this, GB's slobbering to Obama, I agree with An American, our redoubtable frontiers woman.

Cabbie, did you know that these Mongolian rascals can launch a nuclear-tipped Yak within 35 minutes of the order being given? It's so clearly a direct threat to our security.

It's time to 'move em out'.

Conservative Cabbie

May 8th, 2009 10:21am

Ronnie

id you know that these Mongolian rascals can launch a nuclear-tipped Yak within 35 minutes of the order being given?

A Yakxis of evil?

Ronnie

May 8th, 2009 12:33pm

Cabbie, I was thinking of YMD.

Yes - Yaks of Mass Destruction.

Solemnman

May 9th, 2009 5:05pm

To Bill M,
Nothing will dissuade Iran from becoming a nuclear power.It's Ahmadinijads determination to use it on Israel that could ,conceivably ,be stopped if his main rival(whose name iv'e forgotten) defeats him in the next election.

Melanie Phillips

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Melanie Phillips is a Daily Mail columnist. She also writes for the Jewish Chronicle and is a panellist on BBC Radio Four's Moral Maze. Her most recent book is 'Londonistan', published by Encounter and Gibson Square.

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