Low confidence in the NIE

Gareth

This report does rather confirm the suspicion of many Republicans that the people Clinton appointed to the CIA are so virulently partisan that they are engaging in treason to undermine Bush.

field

I don't believe it! As Victor Meldrew might say. The Iranians aren't stupid. Their counter intelligence will be feeding lots of disinformation. The precautionary principle applies here. Interdiction, bombing, blockade, no fly zones, economic boycott. We must do whatever it takes to render impotent all the nuclear sites in Iran.

Richard

Melanie, READ THIS. The Clinton appointees are fulfilling the pact of the red front, sorry, Democrats. This is a political lie, cooked up to rescue the Democrats from their own idiocy at home. http://www.newsmax.com/timmerman/iran_nukes/2007/12/04/54359.html http://wien1938.wordpress.com/

korova

Would I be right in thinking that had the intelligence services come to the opposite conclusion, you would be using it as evidence to support action in Iran?? Of course you would. I doubt very much that you would dismiss their findings so readily. Despite the fact that, as you claim, they have a 'lousy' record (see WMD in Iraq for proof - oh no, that would contradict your argument wouldn't it?). Leave the intelligence to the people who know Melanie. I suggest you know an awful lot less than the people on the ground.

Charles Barton

There is no great mystery why the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) turned around about the assertion that the Iranians were developing nuclear weapons. The 2005 estimate was fudged by the same person who tried to fix the new estimate, Dick Chaney. Chaney, more that any other person was also responsible for fixing the previous NIE that told us about all those Iraqi WMD. You know the WMD that were stolen by space aliens in flying saucers shortly before we invaded Iraq. he International Atomic Energy Agency has known since 2004 that the A.Q. Khan gang sold the Iranians defective centrifuge designs that can only enrich Uranium to reactor grade fuel, not atomic weapon material. In 2004, CNN reported at that time: “IAEA inspectors detailed its findings in the report titled “Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran” – a report compiled for the June 14 meeting of the IAEA board of governors in Vienna, Austria. ” The IAEA has recently determined that the Iranians are making no current efforts to construct nuclear weapons, and have closed their case file. Chaney tried to bolster the case for war with Iran, by demanding another intelligence fix up. The intelligence community is disgusted with Chaney anyway, because not only has he demanded false reports on the Iranians plans and capacities, he has also damaged the US anti-proliferation program for Iran by exposing one of its major covert operatives, Valerie Plame, endangering her life for political reasons. Most US intelligence agencies, recalling that the IAEA was spot on about the fraudulent Bush/Chaney claims about Iraqi nuclear weapons programs, dug in and refused to kowtow to Chaney’s demands for more dummied up intelligence estimates. There is no mystery here, only further evidence of the disgusting, corrupt, dishonesty and insane methods of the Bush Administration.

ASG

The wording of key phrases presented within the National Intelligence Estimate such as: –"high confidence", "assess with only moderate confidence", "very likely", "almost certainly" have a distinctive ring of similarity to the language used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) using terminology such as: –"the balance of the evidence suggests a discernible human influence on the climate", "projections", "levels of likelihood", "probability". The IPCC's politically tuned "Summary for Policymakers" strides for an outcome that is based on a political agenda rather than on solid scientific foundations where those foundations have shown that there is no evidence that proves anthropogenic green house gases are harming the climate but rather the IPCC has assembled a series of scientific arguments to support this pursuit and if closely examined they are based on unsound scientific and mathematical principles. In a similar way the National Intelligence Estimate may indeed be throwing a veil of ambiguity over their report to achieve a nefarious outcome in the pursuit of political expediency. Taking ones foot of the Iranian nuclear surveillance throttle would be detrimental to world stability as Iran not only having shown strategies to be the controlling power in the M.E. has also has a historic record of estimating its own losses if it used a nuclear device against another UN country in close proximity.

Bogdan of Australia

One doesn't have to be a memeber of ANY intelligence organisation, to realise immediately that the NIE repport is a total humbug. Just a bit of a common sense should suffice. It is undoubtedly a blatantly political move made by the anti-Bush forces inside the Washington's political nomenclature to undermine Bush, even at the price of exposing the US and her allies to a mortal danger presented by a terrorist state equipped with nuclear weapons. It has as much credibility as a infamous Baker-Hamilton repport. Taking into account its timing and coupled with the farce and a treason of Annapolis, it represnts the ultimate collapse of West's collective political consciousness. Even worse; it means that the, so called, West is losing its collective instinct of self-preservation; exactly as it had happened before the WW1 and WW2 started. Unfortunately, that also proves that Bush is an extremaly weak leader who is incapable of controlling the processes that are threatening the very survival of democracy. One can only assume what is going to be like when, and if those ignorants like Hilary Clinton or Obama take over...

Mike

The fact of the matter is that we simply don't know. But since the military option, at least for the United States, would appear to be 'off the table', the ascendency of the diplomatic route can be only for the better. Meanwhile, we can expect the neo-cons, led by their current spokesman this side of the Atlantic, John Bolton, to re-group and do as much as they can in the interests of those they covertly represent to bring the military option back to the fore. Let's hope the lessons of Iraq will prevail.

Anne K

Richard, thank you for that NewsMax link. Very interesting and goes to explain an awful lot. Korova, you suggest that Melanie leaves the intelligence to people who know. I agree. The Israelis know a lot more than all of us put together and they happen to be of the same opinion as Melanie. The very fact that Iran has been so obfuscatory and vague about its nuclear plans makes it suspicious. If it wasn't planning a bomb why didn't they completely open up their program for full inspection? Why all the skulduggery?

M.Lester

Just to add to some of the comments here - with which mostly I agree. Incidentally, at the moment, we're lacking a post from those who inevitably damn the US for whatever it does. It's worth pointing out, as has Melanie previously, that the US Intelligence community is far from intelligent. But whatever, they are removed and divorced from the executive. So what they say is not prompted by Cheney, Bush and certainly does not aim to support them (or Israel for that matter) - but rather to justify their salaries and whatever daft statement they've made previously. Again harking back to Melanie, it was obvious, at least a year before the US (& the UK) actually struck in Iraq, that they were bound to do so as relying on the UN is like waiting for the flying pig. Therefore, on the balance of probability & previous track records, Saddam was BOUND to move his WMD out & cleanse all the sites - as the Syrians have recently done. Syria, which loves the US and Israel not one iota is known to be pursuing a varied mix of WMD and has the mechanism to deliver it, courtesy of N.Korea, Iran. Also, it's worth pointing out that the feelings that these Muslims (Arabs) have is NOT one of competing with the US for hegemony. They HATE with a depth of hatred that's impossible for Westerners to fathom - & hence 9/11, 7/7 and many other outrages against (usually) non-Muslims around the world. The problem, I reckon stems from the fact that they're a people similar to "the Lost World", back in the Dark Ages and yet they feel that they deserve the top seat, given their great culture (?) and their vast amounts of loot. Even if you say that they fail to benefit from their wealth because their leaders salt it away, even then that's part of their culture to tolerate, nay support such leaders. If GWB harkens to this report then we really are in trouble

steve

It's a shame that the left-wing U.S. intelligence community (note the word "community"--it's not just the CIA that produces the NIEs it is 16 agencies including the NSA which has a much larger budget than the liberal-run CIA) didn't listen to Melanie and other experts like Bill Kristol and John Bolton about Iran's nuclear program. After all, they were spot on about Iraq's WMDs. Who cares what new intelligence might have come in that led to the NIE's conclusion. AS for Israel's position on this, Ehud Barak said that Iran did stop its nuclear program 4 years ago (funny how no one mentioned this before) but that it has "probably" restarted it. That's certainly strong enough evidence to go to war on. http://209.157.64.200/focus/f-news/1934366/posts

ASG

“But since the military option, at least for the United States, would appear to be 'off the table', the ascendency of the diplomatic route can be only for the better.” – Well then, “better” for whom?? Perhaps the Iranians can now feel better and victorious about diplomatic negotiations over their nuclear “ambitions” now that an ambiguous US report has levered them up to the status of a now reformed interlocutor while they carry on unimpeded enriching Uranium, with diplomatic help from the oil hungry Security Council member China, in a country literally dripping in energy providing oil. Or is it better for the Western world to take the politically correct diplomatic route having not learned anything from the past and pull in the negotiation reins while the Iranians further their “ambitions” until such time that diplomacy is ineffective and the horse has already bolted. It is without a doubt that the Iranians will now feel that they are on the better side having been given a trump report card. It would be helpful if Mike could expand on his own covert reference to those he perceives as the overlords of the ex-US ambassador to the UN John Bolton, so that we can get a feel for the direction that Mike is pitching from.

Rev Goat Boy

Don't you love just love the conspiracy theories of the loony right, so the fact that Iran doesn't have the bomb after all is a conspiracy dreamt up by bunch of traitors appointed by Clinton in that well known pinko organisation the CIA to undermine Bush & Israel. Gosh that must be it, why didn't I think of that it's so obvious I particularly like the post from ASG so their is no intelligence evidence that Iran has the bomb so La La Land it must have one. In the real world their is overwhelming scientific evidence that humans are changing the worlds climate but no in La La Land behold it's hoax perpetrated by climate scientists & leftie politicians to bring capitalism to it's knees. Political agenda anyone.

johnf

Poor Mad Mel. So far up denial she's in Khartoum. Do you people have no respect for the truth? How long can you keep your fingers jammed in your ears and keep screaming "S'not. S'not. S'not!"

Mike

M Lester: Love and hate! What sort of a language is that? Do YOU by chance actually HATE people? Are you seriously suggesting that ALL Muslims and Arabs hate the United States, - and 'we are in trouble' - who is 'we'?

Mike

ASG: John Bolton’s reputation is well documented and personally I find him a distasteful character. Frankly, I think he’s a bully and a bit of a ‘thug’ who I believe is harmful to the very best interests of the United States. As an apologist for US unilateralism he set out to sabotage the United Nations, and I believe the White House nominated him not to help serve the UN, but to destroy its effectiveness as an independent body, and reduce it to an extension of US policy in the Middle East. This is an indication of his support of Israel, right or wrong, and therefore of his Zionist credentials. You will recall he led the attack on the International Court of Justice’s right to rule on the legality of Israel’s Wall. It is undeniably a flagrant violation of international law, and accordingly falls within the courts jurisdiction. You must be aware that the Wall takes in whole swaths of land beyond the 1967 cease-fire line, and denies so many rights of an Occupied people that it can only be construed as collective punishment contrary to the regulations of the Fourth Geneva Convention. When he was at the US State Department he did all he could to undermine Secretary of State Powell, and worked covertly behind his back for the neo-con agenda of Rumsfeld, Perle, Wolfowitz, Cheney and others. This is one of the reasons why the Senate Foreign Relations Committee held up his nomination for weeks so it could investigate these and other charges of improper conduct. It was only when the Senate went into recess, that President Bush made the appointment behind its back. Covertly, some would say. As you will probably know a recess appointment is time-limited and when it came up for review this year John Bolton resigned rather than face certain rejection. Thankfully the neo-con agenda is now thoroughly discredited, and there is hope that a new Presidency will bring peace and justice to the Middle East. But without justice, we shall never have peace. If you wish to know more accurately ‘where I’m pitching from’ take a look at the ‘Independent Jewish Voice’ at http://www.ijv.org.uk/ whose views I fully support. By the way, I’m not Jewish myself, and have no religious affiliations although I subscribe to Judeo/Christian

Reid of America

What a relief! Peace in our time.

Phillip Reece

korova If this report is as accurate as you believe it to be it looks like the Iranians dont believe in 'balance' either, And if you believe that you'll believe anything, till there's nothing like a disgusting fascist dictatorship to think the best of is there.

field

Mike - Bolton was right to seek to undermine the UN. We need some more undermining since the UN can't deliver. It serves a useful purpose as a meeting place for democracies and dictators but that is about it. We need a World Union for Democracy where democratic states such as USA, UK, Australia, Japan, S. Korea, South Africa, Brazil, Philippines and India will co-operate effectively on trade, economic development, world finance, defence etc. That's where our money should go - we should leave the UN as an underfunded husk. My concern with Bolton would be that he is an Americanist rather than an internationalist.

Mike

field: Not unlike many long-established institutions, eg the EU, the House of Lords, the United Nations is no different. But what you don't do, unless one wishes to take the fascist route, is to undermine it. I would suggest that what you do, as a member of the human race, is to seek to reform it by the Democratic will of its membership. Perhaps there is a case even for the US Constitution to be reformed. We must never forget, must we, the horrific cicumstances under which the UN was formed in 1945 - or perhaps you have. You may recall its aims are to facilitate cooperation in international law, international security, economic development, social progress and human rights issues. It's not the UN's fault if certain countries continue to flout its decisions, or seek to undermine it because it can't get its own way. That is fascism, generally defined as an authoritarian political ideology (generally tied to a mass movement) that considers individual and social interests subordinate to the interests of the state. Fascists seek to forge a type of national unity, usually based on (but not limited to) ethnic, cultural, racial, and religious attributes. On this basis you are free to make up your own mind about John Bolton and otheres similarly inclined. The world community has been here before, but as the man said 'The only thing we learn from history, is that we don't learn from history'. Since I'm a very old person, I have a very long memory!

Frank Pulley

Mike: Your rhetoric has the ring of the surname Herseltine, who is also 'very old' with a selective memory.

ASG

With the Rev Goat Boy using his divine “intelligence” and mounting a circuitous argument of conspiratorial proportions suggesting that Iran actually had the bomb only confirms the nature of his frivolous comments.

Mike

Frank Pulley: I never thought for one moment I'd ever receive a compliment as salutary as that. To compare me with Lord Heseltine has made my day!