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The war within the west

Friday, 7th December 2007


A propos my post below about the three State Department officials who were behind the NIE, this is what the Wall Street Journal had to say about them:

The NIE's main authors include three former State Department officials with previous reputations as ‘hyper-partisan anti-Bush officials,’ according to an intelligence source. They are Tom Fingar, formerly of the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research; Vann Van Diepen, the National Intelligence Officer for WMD; and Kenneth Brill, the former U.S. Ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
This is what the New York Sun said about one member of this unlovely trio:
Vann Van Diepen, one of the estimate's main authors, has spent the last five years trying to get America to accept Iran's right to enrich uranium. Mr. Van Diepen no doubt reckons that in helping push the estimate through the system, he has succeeded in influencing the policy debate in Washington.
Now the Worldwide Standard reports that the volte-face performed by a second member was even more abrupt than it appears from their report:

Consider that on July 11, 2007, roughly four or so months prior to the most recent NIE’s publication, Deputy Director of Analysis Thomas Fingar gave the following testimony before the House Armed Services Committee (emphasis added):

Iran and North Korea are the states of most concern to us. The United States’ concerns about Iran are shared by many nations, including many of Iran’s neighbors. Iran is continuing to pursue uranium enrichment and has shown more interest in protracting negotiations and working to delay and diminish the impact of UNSC sanctions than in reaching an acceptable diplomatic solution. We assess that Tehran is determined to develop nuclear weapons--despite its international obligations and international pressure. This is a grave concern to the other countries in the region whose security would be threatened should Iran acquire nuclear weapons.

This paragraph appeared under the subheading: ‘Iran Assessed As Determined to Develop Nuclear Weapons.’ And the entirety of Fingar’s 22-page testimony was labeled ‘Information as of July 11, 2007.’ No part of it is consistent with the latest NIE, in which our spooks tell us Iran suspended its covert nuclear weapons program in 2003 ‘primarily in response to international pressure’ and they ‘do not know whether (Iran) currently intends to develop nuclear weapons.’
So what happened in the last four months to make Fingar so dramatically change his mind?

The NIE is not about intelligence or Iran. It is about the treacherous war that has been waged by the State Department and intelligence world against President Bush ever since 9/11. As the New York Sun went on to observe:
The proper way to read this report is through the lens of the long struggle the professional intelligence community has been waging against the elected civilian administration in Washington. They have opposed President Bush on nearly every major policy decision. They were against the Iraqi National Congress. They were against elections in Iraq. They were against I. Lewis Libby. They are against a tough line on Iran. One could call all this revenge of the bureaucrats… The bureaucrats may even think they are stopping another war.

It's a dangerous game that may boomerang, making a war with Iran more likely. Our diplomats, after all, hoped to seal this month a deal to pass a third Security Council resolution against Iran. Already on Monday the Chinese delegation at Turtle Bay has started making noises about dropping their tepid support for such a document. Call it the Van Diepen Demarche, since the Chinese camarilla can boast that even America's intelligence estimate concludes the mullahs shuttered their nuclear weapons program more than four years ago.
 
As a result of the NIE, the world is now an even more dangerous place. What perfidy. Ahmadinejad has every reason to gloat. Unless the US pulls itself together, this is the way the west loses.


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Bob Latchford

December 7th, 2007 10:47am

this is a typical response from those on the Right, who spit their dummy out when things dont go their way....they will delve deep and look to discredit and besmirch the authors of the report. Its so tired, and so predictable. For those of us who dont have a fetish for seeing countries blown to smithereens, and tens of thousands of civilians massacred in the name of freedom & democracy, this report is great news

Gondor

December 7th, 2007 12:02pm

For those of us who care about the defence of the West, it's bad news.

Frank Pulley

December 7th, 2007 1:16pm

Bob Latchford Great News for Peaceniks, but for anyone with two penn'orth of nous, the report is partisan bollocks and infighting between the multifactional elements of what purports to be the 'intelligence' community, viz. a bunch of warring soothsayers who have ganged up against the current administration. For Christ's sake (and I mean that literally) listen to what the real enemy is saying. Islam is on the march and will employ all possible means of subterfuge; hypocricy, 'moderation', terrorism and ultimtately nuclear weapons to achieve their ends. Just as the West will - I hope - because I know which side I'm on; you myopic Dhimmi! What's more I think you were an over-rated soccer player too. And your comment is an own goal after kicking your own goalie in the Niagras.

james Murphy

December 7th, 2007 1:23pm

So all was peace, quiet and moral stability in good old Saddam's Iraq, was it Bob? How blissful it must be to live with such a simple (minded) left-wing world view. Doubtless that's what attracts them. Ostrich + head + sand = Bob L.

Brad Brzezinski

December 7th, 2007 1:55pm

OK Bob, and if Iran really is developing nukes for the purpose of destroying Israel and threatening or nuking other countries, how would you handle that? They have made the threats and are going through the motions to raise concerns about their intentions. The animosity of many in the State Dept. to Israel, Republicans etc. is not new.

Bill Meinel

December 7th, 2007 2:45pm

Unlike Mr. Latchford who has an obvious fetish to remain ignorant of the facts, I am pleased that the "Right", or, shall we, more appropriately, call them "Realists", delve deep and look to uncover the motives and ensure the authenticity of the bureaucrats who would so brazenly betray their responsibilities and put their nation and other innocents at risk in order to attempt to affect international affairs in such a dangerous and self-serving way. Mr. Latchford would apparently choose to continue to suck on his dummy believing that it will make everything OK.

Jonhson

December 7th, 2007 3:49pm

Of course Iran are developing nukes, and they have every right to do so for defense purposes. Look at the North Korean example: nukes = American trade and aid. Iraq: no nukes = 'regime change'

Tony McGowan

December 7th, 2007 3:52pm

The New York Sun advocated prosecuting protesters against the Iraq war for treason. What a truly bizarre organ, Melanie, to choose to site. Or do you also advocate that? Perhaps Israeli peace protesters are traitorous too?

Nick

December 7th, 2007 6:21pm

Tony, in Mel's world there are no peace protestors, only appeasers and useful idiots.

Thothal

December 7th, 2007 8:12pm

Mr Johnson, I think most North Koreans would prefer a 'regime change' to all the aid of the world (out of which they wouldn't get much anyhow). Probably the same is true for Iranians. It surely was true in 1956 for Hungarians, despite the fact that Hungary - compared to NK today - was Paradise on Earth. In other words: the expression 'NK defends itself' has no meaning at all.

LDN Calling

December 7th, 2007 8:19pm

Well done Bob spot on. Judging by the posts looks like you really got right up the Friends of Mel's nose

Frank Pulley

December 7th, 2007 8:20pm

Nick Better 'Mel's World' than Cloud Cuckoo Land. I prefer reality. Tony McGowan I'm with the NYS when it comes to people who canvass for the enemy in times of war. As for 'a bizarre organ' stand up and take a bow!

Peter

December 7th, 2007 9:38pm

On the other hand two of Europes leaders Sarkozy and Merkel have both stated that Iran remains dangerous.
Perhaps Mr Latchford would care to ponder what it was in 2003 that cause Iran to discontinue nuclear arms development,if indeed they did. A large army next door in Iraq ? Seemed to have worked the oracle on Libya also.

Frank Pulley

December 8th, 2007 12:10am

Londonistan Calling: I'm sure Melanie's nose has many friends; it's a very nice nose. You'd do well to get your own nose out of its current fundamental positioning and pay attention to what Islamic fundamentalism is trying to achieve - and their time frame. If you are one of them, remember - if the USA really get's angry, there won't be enough virgins to go around - not if the quota of 72 per nutter is adhered to.

Riaz Ahmad

December 8th, 2007 12:16am

Usa wants mini nukes, or deep bunker busters. Both USA and UK are always busy upgrading their nukes. Both UK and USA have declared pre-emptive use of nuclear weapons. Both NPT and NTBT is a gigantic hipocricy designed to preserve nuclear monoploly. If nuclear weopans are ok for USA and UK, then why should Iran be devoid of them. Unlike USA, Iran has invaded no other nation; in fact it has been invaded by Iraq with UK and USA complicit in this invasion. I am no supportor of Iran or mullahs, but hypocricy has its limits.

field

December 8th, 2007 1:23am

Did anyone see Newsnight tonight - interviews with ex State Dept. officials? The naivety of these characters was breathtaking and extremely worrying. It was almost as though they were being used as opinion makers by the Iranians. If these are the sort of people who have been generating the "intelligence" - then God help us. They seemed to know nothing about the Iranian regime. One of them quoted the Iranian government offering to cut off aid to Hamas. Did she really think that meant anything at all? The Iranian government can make that promise with a clear conscience. The Mullahs have control over hundreds of huge Islamic "charities" - more like big corporations - which have access to a huge amount of Iran's wealth. The government could quite easily cut off aid, while the "charities" would step in to fill the gap. Precise difference? Zero. Meanwhile, in return these beanheads would have offered REAL concessions. Such ignorance of the way Iranians do things is incredible. The clerics are determined to make Iran a nuclear power and they will stop at nothing to achieve that aim. They will lie, steal, cheat and divert - just as the North Koreans have done.

Al Ramy

December 8th, 2007 5:50am

On the money! However, releasing this data can only be explained in the context of Bush blinked and cut and ran. He had no stomach for another round and set a twofer- Lebanon and Iraq for no strike on Iran. The cowboy got tired.

Lee Jakeman

December 8th, 2007 7:55am

It's depressing to see that the US is becoming more like perfidious Albion every day. I won't abandon hope, though. America's greatest strength has always been the American people. But then that's always been Britain's greatest strength, too.

Neil Turner

December 8th, 2007 8:02am

Please don't worry about this. One day, in the not too distant future, you will wake to "breaking news" that the Israelis have launched a pre-emptive strike that will break the back of Iran's nuclear ambitions. How will Iran respond ? Very quietly, I think.

Tony C

December 8th, 2007 8:30am

Regime change is all well and good, but if the US is involved it tends to include the butchery of a hundred thousand innocent civilians. Shock and awe, and all that.

Bob Latchford

December 8th, 2007 10:52am

a few comments I will deal with... "So all was peace, quiet and moral stability in good old Saddam's Iraq, was it Bob? " no, but the reason we went to war, was supposedly because they had an arsenal of nuclear weapons, which now everyone in the world (with the exception of Ms. Phillips, who still thinks that under the worlds gaze they were shipped off on the back of lorries to Syria!) everyone knows was a lie. We know the reasons for wanting to go into Iran, and its nothing to do with weapons, its to do with regime change. One day, all these bloodthirsty chickenhawks will realise that forcing regime change on people will only lead to more tension. "They have made the threats and are going through the motions to raise concerns about their intentions" This is an important point. The 'threats' you mention are just rhetoric from a deeply unpopular leader, clinging onto power...Iran has never attacked anyone in its life, and for all Ms. Phillips bluster, these are not stupid people, they aren't cavemen living in mud huts, they are prosperous, educated people, and they realise that an attack on Israel would mean the death of tens, if not hundreds of thousands of their citizens...the way forward, and I understand that this is not a concept Ms Phillips would recognise, is dialogue.

Bob Latchford

December 8th, 2007 11:34am

@ Neil Turner, if you think that Iran, after a pre-emptive strike by Israel, would just react 'very quietly' then you are either a fool, or a knave. Iran is not Iraq. Iran is a huge country, with a first world army, and a first world arsenal. You can be sure that they will respond in kind, and the results will be devestating and tragic for all sides concerned. And you can be sure that the first people to suffer would be the thousands of British troops on the border, who are there at the behest of chickenhawks like you & Ms Phillips.

Mike

December 8th, 2007 11:59am

Bob Latchford: Don't know if this will help you in your debate with this lot, but I, for one, agree with you 100%. Of course it's all about regime change, so was Iraq. Let's hope a new US President will shake off, or neutralise the neo-cons and their mad agenda, and bring some mature sense to world affairs. Othewise we're in for more killing, killing and killing. The US must sit down with Iran and talk, talk, and talk.

Bob Latchford

December 8th, 2007 12:12pm

Mike, its plain for anyone to see....the rhetoric for Iran is almost identical to the rhetoric for Iraq, and its the likes of Ms. Phillips who are lead cheerleaders for war after war after war.

LDN Calling

December 8th, 2007 1:43pm

Frank unlike you arm chair general's (sorry if I'm wrong) I have dealt first hand with fallout of terrorism two of my friends were blown to pieces in a bar in shamal shiekh & my father was nearly killed by an IRA bomb in pub in Longacre. I'm very glad that for whatever reason the US has decided to blink, the bombing/invasion of Iran would inevitably had led to the slaughter of the innocents across the Middle East, Israel & the West. & as in Iraq it will have solved nothing.

Turner

December 8th, 2007 1:53pm

I'm not quite sure what Phillips means by 'the US pulling itself together', but I suspect it involves thermobaric ordnance and a lot of dismembered Iranians. The 'authentic voice of Liberalism' speaks once again!

Frank Pulley

December 8th, 2007 1:55pm

Those who talk of 'regime change' in Iraq as a negative, expose their woolly-headedness about geopolitics. Of course part of it was about regime change, which is what most of the oppressed Iraq people had been thirsting for decades. The Peaceniks talk as though Saddam Hussein was some sort of benign but firm dictator, a necessary evil. He was a Stalinist monster; it was his and his nepotistic thugs defiance against the West that gave the other tin-pot terrorists the idea that the West were not up for a fight (obviously largely true and becoming even truer as even Bush's bottle now seems to have gone). Saddam publicly pissed all over the supine so called United Nations for a decade. Bush's willingness to delay the strike to enable Blair to con the rag tags and bobtails of 'socialism' into voting for the Iraq liberation was a mistake. He should have made it clear that 9/11 was a monstrous outrage, barbarism, the last straw and that the retribution would be immediate and very bloody indeed against all the Near Eastern jackals, starting with Saddam as the biggest bully on the Eastern Bloc. To suggest that Saddam had 'nothing to do with' 9/11 is childish. Rather tlike saying that Hitler was not personally responsible for the holocaust. My friend was the Port Authority Police Chief who bravely entered the Twin Towers after the outrage and was killed. The nay Sayers are despicable. The free world rests under the very expensive umbrella of the USA. The idiots in the West who wish to poke holes in it and knock our only real ally in this increasingly dangerous world (Australia has just disqualified itself with the result of their recent election)are beneath contempt. History will eventually condemn the enemy within even more fiercely than it has the egregious and cowardly 1930s pacifists and Quislings. Cowardice is a crime against civilisation and always has been.

Gary Lineker

December 8th, 2007 2:20pm

''Iran is a huge country, with a first world army, and a first world arsenal'' I bet you were saying that about Iraq and their fabled Republican Guard back in 2003 eh Bob

Max Kaye

December 8th, 2007 2:33pm

The West is already at war - with Islamism. It's just that we don't want to acknowledge it.

Bob Latchford

December 8th, 2007 4:25pm

Frank Pullery, what on earth are you babbling on about? "To suggest that Saddam had 'nothing to do with' 9/11 is childish. Rather tlike saying that Hitler was not personally responsible for the holocaust." Neither Saddam or Iraq had anything to do with 9/11, as every sane person on earth knows....and as long as people like you think that regime change in Arab countries for the benefit of 'the West' is acceptable, the longer we will be in conflict....

Bob Latchford

December 8th, 2007 4:27pm

"'Iran is a huge country, with a first world army, and a first world arsenal'' I bet you were saying that about Iraq and their fabled Republican Guard back in 2003 eh Bob".....erm no, do you have any idea about Iran? It is not an impoverished country, beleive me. If Israel attacks, it will be attacked back, by Iran, and her many friends

Tony C

December 8th, 2007 4:39pm

Frank Pulley - the neocon war in Iraq was about oil - nothing more, nothing less. And at what cost? A hundred thousand slaughtered Iraqi citizens. George W. Bush certainly has a lot of blood on his hands. He is a war criminal, nothing more, nothing less, and should be tried before the ICC as such.

rich

December 8th, 2007 5:40pm

Hey Bob, Do you really think Iran has ". . . a first world army, and a first world arsenal . . . . "? If so, you have to learn something about armies and arsenals (or are an ignorant nutter!) Iran knows that it does not have a world class army or arsenal which is exactly the reason why they are enriching uranium. Mel is correct on most of her analysis, but if Iran nukes anyone in the Persian Gulf region they will be sent back to the stone age, and then rebuilt by the Americans. The question is whether Iran is stopped before it actually uses the nukes. Unfortunately the record of the West in stopping these threats before they emerge is not good.

Bob Latchford

December 8th, 2007 8:57pm

but how can Iran nuke anyone when it has no nukes? Like every other sovereign nation on earth, it has the legal right to proceed with a civilian nuclear programme, which it is doing as a member of the NPT, which Ms Phillips beloved Israel is not. The arrogance of people to think that Israel should be allowed an unregulated arsenal of nukes, pointed at Tehran, but Iran should be bombed back to the stone age for merely having a fully legal nuclear programme is remarkable

Mike

December 8th, 2007 10:17pm

It's amazing how short some people's memories are. The US armed and supported Saddam in his war against Iran, and supported Bin Laden when he was fighting against the Russian occupation of Afghanistan. Throughout the 1980s, the US initiated and supported much of the financing, intelligence, and military help that built Saddam's Iraq into an aggressive power. The Reagan/Bush Snr administrations permitted — and frequently encouraged — the flow of money, agricultural credits, dual-use technology, chemicals, and weapons to Iraq. Dick Cheney, when he was CEO of Hallibuton, said, 'The Middle East, with two-thirds of the world's oil and lowest cost, is still where the prize ulitimately lies' When Melanie says 'Unless the US pulls itself together, this is the way the West loses'. One has to wonder in which direction she want the 'pull' to go unless she is thinking of pulling at each end against the middle!

Tony C

December 8th, 2007 11:07pm

It's true that the Republican Guard weren't much of a threat. In fact, the American military proved far more proficient at gunning down their British counterparts than the Iraqis. With friends like these, who needs enemies?

N. Ferguson

December 8th, 2007 11:12pm

Bob Latchford is absolutely right. 9/11 was formulated and perpetrated by Saudi nationals. Bin Laden himself (- remember him?) is a Saudi. And yet, the US govt continues to sell billions of dollars worth of arms to Riyadh. I wonder why that is?

Frank Pulley

December 9th, 2007 12:06am

Tony C - You say: 'George W. Bush certainly has a lot of blood on his hands. He is a war criminal, nothing more, nothing less, and should be tried before the ICC as such.' Yeah, let's hang the President of the Country that is our closest and most powerful ally. That will solve all of our problems and completely negate the militant threat of Islamic fundamentalism. Is that the 'diplomatic solution' you lefties keep banging on about? It would certainly be the first prereqisite to satisfy President Ahmadinejad. I think I can guess the other three letters of your surname.

Tony C

December 9th, 2007 10:10am

The UK would do very well to distance itself from America, at least until sanity prevails and the Democrats are back in power. The USA is rapidly turning into a basket case. The economy is in meltdown, the administration is corrupt and morally bankrupt, and the populace living in fear of some fictional Islamic bogeymen. The answer lies over the Channel. We need to strengthen our ties with Europe - a progressive, modern feudal superstate for the 21st Century.

DOC

December 9th, 2007 4:58pm

its funny that the author has chossen to quote from the new york sun who are owned by the same guy who ownes fox news, the sun(u.k) and also daily mail. MR.RUPeRT M

PeterUK

December 9th, 2007 5:56pm

"do you have any idea about Iran? It is not an impoverished country, beleive me. If Israel attacks, it will be attacked back, by Iran, and her many friends".

Like Hezbollah and Syria perhaps?

PeterUK

December 9th, 2007 5:59pm

"We need to strengthen our ties with Europe - a progressive, modern feudal superstate for the 21st Century."

Yes,"feudal superstate" sums it up nicely

drzz

December 10th, 2007 12:38pm

Congratulations, Mrs Phillips. I have contacted John Loftus, a former American intelligence officer and later prosecutor in cases related to intelligence and this expert told me the NIE report was nuts. It was written to hurt Bush's foreign policy, but has nothing to do with actual intelligence files. Indeed, the UK intelligence services do not believe this report, which quickly disappeared from discussions. The CIA is currently lauching a war against the Bush administration and wants all its pre-9/11 privileges back, including stability by backing Middle Eastern dictators. They are silly. drzz http://leblogdrzz.over-blog.com

Richard Morgan

December 10th, 2007 2:32pm

Its interesting how american intelligence reports are scoffed at by the left, then this one comes out and everyone believes it!

LDN Calling

December 10th, 2007 4:11pm

Its interesting how american intelligence reports are believed by the right then this one comes out and everyone scoffs at it!

The Radical

December 11th, 2007 2:55pm

I am never ceased to be amused by Melanie's sources - the New York Sun, the Wall Street Journal, the Sunday Telegraph, DEBKA. All neutral, and non-partisan. As for referring to the State Department as "treacherous", on what grounds does she make such a nonsensical and hypocritical claim? radicalopinions.blogspot.com

J. Isaacs

December 12th, 2007 12:08pm

On hearing Bob Latchford's throaty screech "Chickenhawks, Chickenhawks," one might have thought one was in the presence of a Great Tit or possibly a yellow-tailed Tit. But on further reflection, the continuing whining undertone heralds the winter warning call of that most unusual of cross-breeds, the Cuckoo Vulture.

The Radical

December 12th, 2007 12:11pm

Melanie – is it not time you stopped relying on the likes of the Sunday Telegraph, the New York Sun an DEBKA as your sources of ‘intel’, seeing as how they – like you – got almost everything wrong on Iraq and its phantom WMDs? The reality is that the best intelligence – and the IAEA inspections – suggests Iran, unlike your beloved Israel, has no nuclear weapons and no nuclear weapons programme. Like all other inconvenient truths, it is one you seem irrationally and fanatically unwilling to acknowledge. http://radicalopinions.blogspot.com

J.Isaacs

December 13th, 2007 8:32am

The Cuckoo Vulture has a cousin, the Radical, which is not to be confused with its more splendidly-plumed relative the red-crested Radical. The Radical is a dull fowl with an unattractive winter display call; "radicalopininions. blogspot,radicalopinions.blogspot," which seldom attracts a mate. Consequently the Radical is forced to scavenge other sites in its quest for its favourite food - nuts. It adapts at these sites with a more hopefull mating call; "no nuclear weapons programme," but this is hardly more enticing. So both the Radical and the Cuckoo Vulture are forced to spend the winter months going for nuts and mates in the alleyways round the back of nightclubs in Essex instead of flying south to the Americas. Their future remains hopeless and extinction beckons.

JimmyJazz

December 13th, 2007 10:52am

Radical: Is it not time that you stopped relying on the likes of the BBC the Guardian and the New York Times as your sources of “intel”? Especially seeing as they – like you and your mates – got the impressive strength of the Republican Guard, the quagmire of Iraqi’ cities and the defeat of the American surge wrong? AS for the IAEA – another of these famed international organizations that have served so well the people of Sudan, Rwanda, Srebrenica and Sadam’s Iraq, I think the less said the better.

The Radical

December 13th, 2007 2:34pm

Actually, I don't rely on the New York Times for 'intel' as it too is often used (e.g. Judith Miller) as a mouthpiece for Bush administration propaganda. As for the IAEA, you seem rather confused. It had no jurisdiction or involvement in the Balkans or Rwanda and, by the way, unlike you and Melanie, it proved to be correct abou Iraq's 'WMDS' (or lack of). radicalopinions.blogspot.com

J. Isaacs

December 13th, 2007 6:05pm

As frosty midwinter approaches, the Radical revives its ancient plaintive squawk; "radicalopinions. blogspot." Even the dull Radical has seen the mass migrations of potential cross-breeding mates to warmer climes due south. But wait; is doom arriving faster than at first perceived? Is that the sound of poulterers seeking to make laughing-stock cubes from the remains of this shrivelled-up frozen fowl? No; it is the ominous gurgle of the bottom of the blog, sorry bog of the Thames estuary rising to swallow up the Radical, never to be seen again.

Mike

December 14th, 2007 11:03pm

Melanie: Your Last sentence -'Unless the US pulls itself together, this is the way the west loses'. I would urge you, and to comment if you please, on the following: http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2007/12/14/blackwater/?source=newsletter

Melanie Phillips

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Melanie Phillips is a Daily Mail columnist. She also writes for the Jewish Chronicle and is a panellist on BBC Radio Four's Moral Maze. Her most recent book is 'Londonistan', published by Encounter and Gibson Square.

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