McChrystal undermined

Michael Schneemann

All due respect, Ms. Phillips - but you're not a military strategist and you don't have the Pentagon advising you. Sure the CiC calls the shots in the end, but Obama's not stupid and he's listened to the brass.

Furthermore, as Sun Tzu wrote thousands of years ago, deception is the key to the art of war. And that goes not just for the jihadis but also for the folks at the hearth.

How do you know where Obama or the US will be 18 months down the track? The surge will give NATO the time to make something decent out of the Afghan government, and if that works the Taliban will have a tougher time hacking themselves back into power. Read Petraeus' 2007 Counter-Insurgency Manual or David Kilcullen's 2009 'The Accidental Guerrilla'.

If Obama and the rest of NATO cannot get a functioning government in Afghanistan by 2011, then you will have a real leg to stand on. But as for this argument - it's prosthetic and judging by its quality probably made in China.

Jason from AZ

Does anyone really believe that NATO can win the hearts and minds of Afgani's, successfully nation-build, and bring stability to an Islamic country stuck in Medieval times?

And does anyone really believe that, even if we did deprive terrorists of a base in Afganistan, they cannot simply open up shop in some other part of the Mideast or Africa?

The most courageous act for Obama to have done would have been to declare victory and start bringing our brave soldiers home now without some phony, limited surge.

Captain Canuck

Looks like the old Bill Cosby story of the coin flip. British troops you lost the toss, now you get to march all in a line with red tops and white crossed straps while American revolutionary soldiers get to shoot from behind the trees, at those nice targets.
So now that you have won the election you get to put 100000 troops in harm's way for another year or so and then just bring them home. Wow what a plan!!!

Just Cause

Obama, like most leftists, thinks like a child. Wars don't have an expiry date when everyone just packs up and goes home as if nothing ever happened and we can all go back to the status quo - someone has to win, and someone has to lose.

Obama has clearly chosen the latter which will not only be an insult to those that have died fighting there but will resound throughout the middle east as a clear sign that the west is ripe for the picking with the inevitable and sadly ironic end result of more war, most likely being left to the people to fight.

A quick glance at a couple of history books would give plenty of examples throughout our documented time on this planet of why we should fight to win as peace cannot be bought, it is a mere by-product of victory. But of course, children do not understand why wars have to be fought, only that they should be stopped, at all costs.

YA

The timetable is introduced because of the following reasons:

1) to keep Islamo-leftis in the dark, not giving a pretext of "illegitimate occupation", - a PC smokescreen, delivered by Nobel Price winner.

2) to mobilize Afghan government for fast, decisive fight, - after ensuring that they have something to loose, and that there is bad blood between them and Taliban

3) to untie hands of NATO for elevated intensity conflict. Other words, to make a pancake of Taliban. "Don't mess up with our peace effort, we have a deadline to meet".

Oh and BTW after 18 months, there will be a review, and structure of withdrawal will be defined. Or it might be postponed. Infantry might go home but intelligence installations, spec-ops, drone airfields, long range artillery - that might stay for longer, supporting Afghan forces.

All pro-jihadi MSM (Steve Bells' cartoon on CiF, etc.) are infuriated today by this decision, - which means, Obama does everything right.

ahem

With all due respect, Schneemann, it is you who have no idea what you're talking about. Don't tell me--you voted for Obama. What a surprise.

Yeah, that's that old preternatural Obama brilliance on show right there for everyone to see. He's been traveling the world lately, flopping on his back at the least excuse, exposing his throat and abasing himself--or haven't you noticed?

Head over to Youtube and watch "Obama-Caucus4Priorities" to see an interview of where Obama, er, stands on defense. He freely admits he was against Iraq--a war we won. That was only one of many issues on when he has supported the wrong side. But--God willing--he'll still be able to wrest defeat from the jaws of victory. I guess you think he's right on that one, too.

No--there is no more subtle, informed strategic plan; he's surrendering. It'll make him look good to uninformed voters like you, but it will be paid for in someone else's blood.

elfraed

By expending more Coalition lives, instead of fewer, this surge will allow ISAF to "save face" by leaving Afghanistan under improved conditions, rather than under deteriorating conditions. And, no matter how well or poorly we do in the coming months, WE WILL HAVE TO RETURN to this battleground of global Jihad. Then, we will be asking ourselves, "What were all those lives, all those years and a mighty effort...for?" Whatever answers our leaders give, whatever the lessons learned, will soon be forgotten. The Pentagon's collective memory has a half-life of only ten years. Politicians will forget at the next election. Since most Americans never remember, they will have nothing to forget. We will have done everything we could really afford.

elfraed

By expending more Coalition lives, instead of fewer, this surge will allow ISAF to "save face" by leaving Afghanistan under improved conditions, rather than under deteriorating conditions.

And, no matter how well or poorly we do in the coming months, WE WILL HAVE TO RETURN to this battleground of global Jihad.

Then, we will be asking ourselves, "What were all those lives, all those years and a mighty effort...for?"

Whatever answers our leaders give, whatever the lessons learned, will soon be forgotten. The Pentagon's collective memory has a half-life of only ten years. Politicians will forget at the next election. Since most Americans never remember, they will have nothing to forget. We will have done everything we could really afford.

Rocko

Michael Schneemann, even commentators who don't think we should be in Afghanistan can see how stupid it is to say 'we'll be gone by tea tim, so hide until then'.

Here's one of them:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1232483/MAX-HASTINGS-Obamas-Afghan-surge-winning-war-managing-looming-failure.html

'How do you know where Obama or the US will be 18 months down the track?'

Der. I think he might be seeking re-election? Does that give you a clue?

As to 'deception is the key to the art of war', indeed, so why lay your cards on the table by saying we'll be gone by 2011?

Obama has not taken the advice of McChrystal but has instead given al Qaeda and its associates a timetable around which to organise themselves in the Middle East.

porkbelly

McChrystal is being set up by Obama and will be the scapegoat if things go badly...he had better start polishing his resume. And for those confused about the timeline - there's a Presidential election in 2012. Obama knows that his first term will consist of laying the groundwork for the truly radical transformation of the United States in his second term. Afghanistan will not be allowed to get in the way. Too bad a few Brits have to be sacrificed for the Cause, but they don't vote do they?

Adam B.

Michael Schneeman, you're making excuses, and you know it - when you're second guessing a strategy, without any evidence, (art of deception etc) you're making excuses.

Why did it take Obama months to come up with this piece of brilliance?

Shimon

Looking forward to Manchester United's next match against West Ham. I've heard that because of Obama's speech, Alex Ferguson will have his team leave the stadium at some point before the end of the match. A great strategy for victory.

Watt Tyler

It seems to me that he is trying to be all things to all men. The surge is to garner the support of one side, the reassurances of withdrawal to hanker to the desires of the other. Obama obviously wants to keep everyone on side until the damage he can do becomes irrevocable (the nation he wants to "build" is the US - scary, eh?).

Nordheim

Melanie, our whole war effort in Iraq and Afghanistan is just odd. The anti-war crowd in the US got elected and is now running two worthless wars for the second year. We haven't learned from the Israeli experience: after a few weeks, there's nothing worth bombing in these G-d forsaken places, so just go home and sharpen your knives for the next time. We have no possibility of victory in either war, the minute we leave it goes back to however it was without us, and the enemy gains in strength just by fighting us. I say we all leave, and just fire some remote controlled missiles at the bad guys every now and again to let them know of our displeasure.

Terry, Eilat - Israel

Sorry, this isn't about Afghanistan - this is about Obama. He was trapped by his own campaign rhetoric, the situation deteriorated in Afghanistan, his poll numbers keep dropping, criticism is mounting, etc. etc. - but, he's been dithering around looking for the least politically damaging decision for himself, not a success in Afghanistan. If he could, he would cut & run today but it would be politically damaging.
I can't argue the merits of the Afghan conflict, I tend to think it is a hopeless mess but can't deny that the Taliban or any other Islamic group MUST be defeated. I have to take on faith the opinion of Gen. McChrystal that it's possible.
But, have faith in Obama to conduct a war to a successful conclusion, you must be kidding.

elixelx

The returned-because-unwanted bust of Churchill must be turning on its plinth, but, nevertheless, glad to be back in the black cellars of the British Museum rather than in the yellow confines of the Oval Office

Terry, Eilat - Israel

And, to add to my previous comment, the number one problem of the Middle-East is Iran & it's nuclear program. Afghanistan is far less of a priority. If Obama really wanted to improve the security situation in the entire region, he would initiate military action against Iran.

GaryO

Obama has the world media at his feet. After 18 months, the White House will announce a great victory and the world media, Hollywood stars and Western islamo-feminists will hail their hero!

Of course the correct and right thing to do is to pull out right now!

Lizzy

No doubt I'm no strategist either, but why aren't the Allies going into North West Pakistan?

Big Bertha

Nordheim. I totally agree with your suggestions. Neither Hamas, Hizbollah nor Al Qaeda give a stuff about the Geneva Convention, so the Americans and British should just fight like with like. It's enough already!

Wilhelm

'' why aren't the Allies going into North West Pakistan? ''

Cos its an independent, sovereign country, luv. It would be a bit like the British Army invading County Cork to catch IRA terrorists, It wouldnt go down too well in Dublin, now would it ?

steve

im sure the taliban are so pleased now that they have their timetable to work to..
unbelievable
and so clueless,old obama s, clutching at straws applauding any old taqiya like this...
(i could hardly believe it)
the saudi leadership, have been lauded, on making great advances,(apparently) at the end of the hajj in wait for it
brokering discussions on intergrating the taliban, into the leading light of democracy in afghanistan bbc. news :-D
you just couldn t make this stuff up, could you :-D
"like taking a drunk to a bar to dry out, while its permanently happy hour"

Ian C

The stupidest bit about the 'we'll be gone in mid 2011' is that the Taliban can now pretend to be coming on board. Thereby they could aim to convince 'The One' that the strategy has succeeded and then come out from behind their rocks with weapons on automatic.

Rather more dangerously, if they convince the American electorate this is the case by the Nov. 2010 elections the Taliban will have outsmarted him completely as they can then sit and wait for mid-2011.

If this is a Commander in Chief in action, not to mention leader of the free world, we're all martians. He has handed the long game to them. Amazing naiivety.

Baron

Obama has faced a lose/lose dilemma; he withdraws, and the Muslim fanatics will declare a victory; he stays the course, and the hole just gets deeper.

There’s a middle ground that could salvage quite a lot, and get the troops back soon. Making the deal with the country’s true powerbase. Painful as it may be to everyone, and in particular to those who subscribes to the ‘uman rights’ pap, the middle ground solution could and would work.

What the West needed most was cleansing Afghanistan from al-Qaeda and its training camps. This has been accomplished. What we need now it’s keeping Afghanistan free of those who want to kill us. (The Taliban has never had any desire to pursue us here). Karzai bunkered in Kabul, cannot deliver, only the tribal leaders in the inaccessible border areas can. We should make a deal with them.

Defeating Taliban? How do you defeat a creed in a couple of years? Cannot be done any more than an invading force into this country could defeat Labour. Mullah Omar may be in exile, but the vast majority of the Taliban are Afghans, it’s their country, they live there. They’ll hide their weapons, do abit of IED moonlighting, plough the fields during the day, take our gifts, learn a thing or two, and when we are gone will return to their own way of life. Given the history of this harsh and inhospitable land could we really hope that they accept any of the belief system, or societal set-up of people whom they regard as soft, secular, narcissistic, fornicating sexual deviants?

Frank P

Baron

"... people whom they regard as soft, secular, narcissistic, fornicating sexual deviants?"

You think they're on to us, then? I suppose we have been showing out a bit in recent years.

Augustus

An old military uncle of mine once told me that in WW2 ten Russian troops needed one man behind to supply them, but one American needed ten men behind him. Whether true or false, I don't know. But the logistics in Afghanistan must be a terrible nightmare, with its mountainous terrain and bad roads, fuel and ammo, and all the little goodies that the troops 'have to have'. So it's either flying the stuff in, or convoy work, and in both cases the enemy will have a field day shooting down the helicopters or
targeting the massive convoys snaking their way through the passes. I think it's fair to call the whole exercise a second Vietnam. A no-win situation. No wonder he didn't use the word. And if the new escalation is basically an exit strategy, it's odds on that the Taliban won't be weakened enough
for an effective long-term political strategy to mean anything. And all these newly trained Afghan policemen that are going to emerge once the toops have left, and all the districts and provinces which are going to be 'handed over' within a year. Does anyone really believe that, once the dust has settled, the old ways of bribery and corruption won't return? If ever there was a political lost cause, Afghanistan is surely it. As the British Empire and the USSR have surely proved.

Mailman

Baron,

Thats why it is important to realise that any action will take more than 18 months to WIN in Afghanistan.

Somewhere along the line the West has replaced its backbone with soft white mushy stuff!

America and the world needs a strong American President. Unfortunately for America and the World we dont have a strong American President. In fact we have the exact opposite.

Perhaps though the Times captured the moment the best yesterday when it said "...this isnt McCrystal Lite, its McCrystal late..."

Mailman

Lizzy

Wilhelm, luvvie,Pakistan "an independent, sovereign country"? More like a flailing, failing state. And that's where the worst of the Islamist terrorists reside. 'Nuff said!

Drakken

Well if you want to win? here is my two cents worth, Take out all of the woman and educate them in the West. Then turn around and do a Atilla the Hun and then leave. See? so simple a caveman can do it.

YA

recent news:

Americans attack in Helmand.
Operation "Cobra's anger".
Goal - cutting Taliban's weapons supply routes. Should be the same as opium smuggling routes.

Most likely Obama ordered thorough intelligence gathering/planning, and that was seen as 2-3 months pause.

Waiting for boiling anger of "international community" re atrocities of neo-colonialists, refugee crisis, Bagram airbase detainees, human rights, innocent native civilians, wedding parties bummed, bla bla.

Vic Elford

Obama has now compromised the safety of every single American and British soldier,

What you really mean is that he has compromised the safety of every single American....wherever they may be!!!!

Rob-NY

"The Grand Old Duke of York
He had ten thousand men
He marched them up to the top of the hill
And he marched them down again."

The Grand Young Duke of Hope has 30,000 men. He'll march them up the Khyber Pass but he'll march them down again in July 2011. If you're some village headman who's been making nice to the Americans, the Taliban have a whole new pitch for you: In a year and a half, the Yanks are going. But we'll still be here.
STEYN

Gary Wintle

Bin Laden's objective was to bankrupt America, by using its own strength against it.

The Pentagon, with its staggering incompetence and corporate welfare (No-Bid and Cost Plus) and treasonous abuse of the US taxpayer, has plunged the US into a massive deficit.
The Pentagon and Wall Street have been Bin Laden's most loyal lieutenants, bankrupting the US, stealing from the taxpayer,

Michael Schneemann

Sorry about the source, but:

www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/dec/06/us-2011-afghanistan-troop-withdrawal-target

Rathtyen

Its hard to judge just how dumb or smart the Taliban are. If they are dumb, they’ll keep attacking American and coalition troops. Sure they’ll get lucky sometimes, but they’ll get hammered for meagre gains.

On the other hand, if they are smart, they have the war won. All they need to do is a big, fat nothing. Sit on their hands, have sing-a-longs in their caves and tunnels (oho, my bad, Taliban don’t sing; whatever they do to pass the time then). Everything quietens down, Obama declares victory and can start pulling troops out before 18 months are up.

When the US is gone, so are the Allied troops. In 18+ months, the rested and rearmed Taliban can do their surge, very safe in the knowledge Obama isn’t going to go back after them, aided by a compliant press who will ignore the Taliban resurgence so Obama doesn’t feel pressured. Its all so easy.

McChrystal’s success is in the hands of the Taliban. If they want to fight, he’ll crush them. If they go quiet, he won’t be able to root them out, and will have failed notwithstanding the shorter term peace and quiet.

Who fights a war by letting the enemy dictate the outcome? Losers do. Do you think the US Commander-in0Chief is listening?......hmmm, what was that about Losers?

David

Obama is not giving up, nor is he betraying McChrystal. I agree with YA - the 18 mos. 'deadline' concept really gives a green light to launching more massive concentrated destruction right away.

Also, tactical deception is likely involved here in some way.

Anyhow, politically, Obama cannot afford to oversee a full-scale retreat at any time, certainly not in 2010, an election year. Thus the announcement of an 18 month term strikes me as a smart move politically too because it blunts criticism on both the left and right. You can’t say he’s a wimp and can’t say he’s a warmonger either. He really compels people to shut up for a while and wait and see what happens in 2010-11. I think a hell of a lot of destruction can take place in this timeframe, after which he can simply argue that his strategy deserves another 1 yr renewal. He would likely get the usual grudging, carping support again, if it comes to that.

Remember, the Iraq surge was ridiculed and opposed by many, but ultimately it succeeded, and in about the same time frame.

Anyhow, I do not think Obama has much choice in the matter. Certainly, a retreat at this or any point would be militarily and politicaly catastrophic. It would amount to Taleban alQaeda victory over the U.S. and West after 8 yrs of war. It would embolden and empower global Islamist resolve for generations to come. It would tend to destabilize non-Islamist Muslim states. It would produce a retributive bloodbath to some Afghans, sending a message everywhere to our supports. It would knock Pakistan into a serious security crisis. The real problem there is not yet military but more one of political subversion by Islamists. So, a white flag now would be totally insane.

Melanie's readers here seem to disapprove of Obama, but in this case I think he is the mouthpiece of Pentagon strategy