
Excellent, if utterly chilling, analysis by the incomparable Greg Sheridan in the Australian of the way in which the world is sitting on its hands while Iran proceeds to acquire nuclear weapons in order to realise its openly declared aim of destroying the west. His point is that not only will even more stringent sanctions not work, but that even if Israel bombs Iran’s nuclear facilities it can at best only delay Iran going nuclear. And the one country that could stop it will not:
The US could strike Iran’s nuclear facilities far more effectively than Israel could, but to do so would be foreign to every instinct of the Obama administration. It would also be hugely risky. But the risks of not acting are even greater. Nonetheless, the portents are strong that the Obama administration will dither.
... Most Western analysts refuse to take Islamic religion seriously as a factor in geopolitics, assuming there must always be a rational national-interest explanation for any state’s behaviour. The truth is that history is littered with states behaving irrationally and pursuing irrational ends, and doing so in often self-destructive ways... It is intensely ahistorical to believe political regimes will always act according to Western conceptions of enlightened self-interest.
It is striking, to this British observer at least, how very unlikely it would be to encounter anywhere in the British media such a well-informed, realistic and intelligent analysis of the Iranian crisis and the paralysis of the west.
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Melanie Phillips is a Daily Mail columnist. She also writes for the Jewish Chronicle and is a panellist on BBC Radio Four's Moral Maze. Her most recent book is 'The World Turned Upside Down: The Global Battle over God, Truth and Power', published by Encounter.
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Michael B
February 18th, 2010 3:53am"The paralysis of the west."
Supremely fitting. And, yet again, a self-blinded and self-blinkered paralysis - and that too is a supremely apposite characterization. Lincoln famously said "we must disenthrall ourselves."
Rachael Clark
February 18th, 2010 4:00amLast night I attended a diner where Melanie Phillips spoke about an England that to me was totally unrecognisable country. The place of my birth seemed like I had been brought up in a parallel universe. Where is the England I know and love, what have you done with her! Come on England stand up and be coounted dont let the poli's bullshit to you, they are self serving arogant nausiating plebs, who dont give a dam about the ordinary folk.Blair should be ashamed for what he did, and so should we all because for the most part we let it happen, because its easier to agree than fight for what is right. I have to stop now, but I am very angry that brittans let brittan down! I love living here, but still refer to England as home. Would I want to live there again not on your life
tiki
February 18th, 2010 6:05amThe West 'did read his lips, but are to scared and helpless to act. They hope (against all odds) that Achmed is only
'bluffing like Sadam was and they don't have to get involved. Achmed is NOT bluffing, the man is dead serious and he got the West exactly where he wanted them. Fuming hot air from home.
Austin Barry
February 18th, 2010 7:25amI wouldn't be so sure of US inertia.
This from Reuters on 2 August 2009:
"The Pentagon is seeking to speed deployment of an ultra-large "bunker-buster" bomb on the most advanced U.S. bomber as soon as July 2010, the Air Force said on Sunday, amid concerns over perceived nuclear threats from North Korea and Iran.
The non-nuclear, 30,000-pound Massive Ordnance Penetrator, or MOP, which is still being tested, is designed to destroy deeply buried bunkers beyond the reach of existing bombs.
(The) radar-evading B-2 bomber "would be capable of carrying the bomb by July 2010," said Andy Bourland, an Air Force spokesman."
davo
February 18th, 2010 8:30amRachael echoes my own feelings and i too left England for greener pastures when i realised that the inmates had taken over the asylum several years ago.
what is amazing is the level of hatred towards Israel in the comments on Greg's article in the Australian .
It seems that it is OK for Iran to hold WMDs simply because Israel has them too and since Australia is a long way away from Iran it is not threatened by them!
Johnnie Barleycorn
February 18th, 2010 8:45amThe Geert Wilders trial in the Netherlands proves the West has no stomach for a fight against radical Islam. Moreover this morning's vilification of Mossad for apparently forging British passports to help in the assassination of an Hammas killer illustrates our craven subservience to radical Islam. Obama cannot go to war with Iran without a popular mandate. Complicating the mater still further are the leaders of the west - Brown, Cameron, Sarkozy, Merkel and Obama making it abundantly clear they have no wish to fight. It is only with new leaders and clearer thinking, as MP points out above, that the cause of freedom may be saved. I take no comfort from the fact that in the UK we have a general election this year.
Australians for Non-Bigoted Thinking
February 18th, 2010 8:47amNEVER FORGET TO PERSPECTIVE TAKE !
Greg Sheridan's alerting article all too lucidly highlights that when we assess the motivations of others, be it people, be it nations, be it cultures, we need to PERSPECTIVE TAKE !
Far too often after we ask the question why did they do that, we look incredulous, only because we assess people's actions through the prism of our own eyes and not from the perspective of theirs. We then make a similar mistake when we respond to the actions of others, acting in a way we may think will bring a resolution to the problem; in our own eyes.
Appeasing Hitler may have seemed the civilized English way to expect a resolution at that time, but Hitler was a tyrant.
Looking through one's own prism cost 10's of millions of lives...
just Louise
February 18th, 2010 9:04amGreg Sheridan is one of the most perspicacious of journalists; we need his sort here, along with Canada's Mark Steyn.
Ahmadinejad is said to believe in the Coming of the Twelfth Imam, which must apparently be preceded by strife and mayhem; he might well be nutty enough to start Armageddon in order to bring it about.
Yes, Rachael, as a Brit born and bred who returned here (temorarily) some years ago after 20 years in The Lucky Country (where my heart is) I can tell you that this is not the Great Britain that we once knew and loved so deeply. It is as if society has been turned upside down, and a demographic revolution threatening what remains of our culture carries on apace. Tellingly, the nation's history is ignored by the school curriculum. A paralysis of will seems to have taken hold, while some of our bravest and best young men are dying in foreign fields. I advise anyone who has the chance to emigrate to Australia to do so. Upon retirement, that's where I'm headed.
Fabio P.Barbieri
February 18th, 2010 9:47amThe saddest thing is that if and when it comes to open war, we shall have to rely on the large minority of western dupes and worse-than-dupes who currently spend their time pooh-poohing any concern about the monsters in Tehran and indulging their hateful religious prejudice against Jews. There is likely to be war (indeed, there is already) whether or not the current Western leaderships accept it, and when it comes, the enemy will have not one but two massive fifth columns this side of the barrier. And the local Muslims are by far the least worrying of the two. It will be the pacifists, the rainbow-wavers and all their likes, who will really do their best to disarm and demolish us and deliver us bound hand and feet to our enemies. Muslims don't worry me so much - indeed, our best hope is that there probably are more Muslims on the other side who are disaffected with their leaderships, out of love with hate preaching, and disposed to live in peace with their neighbours, than there are dangerous Western self-haters over here.
Philo
February 18th, 2010 10:10am"... Most Western analysts refuse to take Islamic religion seriously as a factor in geopolitics, assuming there must always be a rational national-interest explanation for any state’s behaviour..."
And yet for the last thirty years, Iran has behave as you would expect a state and a regime to behave if interested in its own self-interest and survival. Iran has shown no desire to be incinerated by the US or anyone else.
Robbit
February 18th, 2010 11:42amPhilo (or is it rather Sopho?) - well I guess Iran training, arming and managing Hezbollah and Hamas to fight the preliminary proxy stages of its genocidal war against the Jews is what you would call enlightened self-interest. Evidently Iran has decided that a second Holocaust is in its self-interest. So that's OK. Some of us take the view that if there is anything to be learn't from history it is that when tyrants and demagogues rant and rave it is prudent to take their words at face value... and more, because what they _say_ inevitably proves to be just the tip of the dung heap on which they are sitting. Know anything about history?
Ricky
February 18th, 2010 12:10pmJohnny Barleycorn - agreed. Amazing isn't it how the Islamophile Liberal Elite are united in their criticism of Israeli intelligence, the CIA and MI5. All these people are surrendering us to the Islamic thugocracies.
My question is this: how come a confessed murderer of a proscribed terror organisation - Hamas - was able to enter Dubai and openly trade banned weaponry from the specious bosses of Iran? In the rush to condemn the Israelis, no one appears to be checking the on Dubai connection and the murky relationships in the Gulf.
It is also quite possible, given the ineptness of the team involved and the rush to condemn Israel by Dubai, that the whole action was a set up - with the Syranian axis getting revenge on a recalcitrant Palestinian.
Johnnie Barleycorn
February 18th, 2010 2:20pmRicky I can't answer your question directly - unless the truth is he was lured there by another faction and the Israelis weren't involved at all. Could well be a set up. However Mossad can make mistakes - remember the Norwegian fiasco, post-Munich? Read the novels of Daniel Silva for reassurance about Israel's moral conscience and professionalism.
Augustus
February 18th, 2010 2:21pmIt is quite likely that the Obama administration will dither. China, which has negotiated billions in energy deals with Iran is most likely to block meaningful sanctions which would be truly harmful to Iran, and to it's own profitable trade relations with the regime. A fuel embargo would trigger a sharp rise in the price of petrol because, although Iran has the world's second largest oil reserves, lack of refinery capacity means that it has to import half the petrol it uses. And such a measure could easily inflame the
Iranian people once again against the 'evil West'.
However, there are signs that the internal power struggle beween Khameni and Rafsanjani is intensifying. This could play itself out in the form of a political implosion of fundamentalist rule, then leading through the will of the people towards a more moderate (but not secular) regime change.
Civil war might be the modus operandae, or, if the revolutionary guard decide to back the dissident immam(s) as being the most likely to keep the country together, it might not. Internally, only one thing is certain: Khameini's only answer to people protest is violence and yet more violence. The Iranian revolution may soon enter a new phase, in which case
the military option of bombing Iran's nuclear facilities (a difficult task anyway), while the present regime still has the upper hand, might prove counter-productive for future relations.
Alex Bensky
February 18th, 2010 2:26pmOh, you cynics. Just yesterday the Obama administration announced that any sanctions against Iran would relate to Iran's military and would be designed not to impinge on the quality of life of average Iranians, and that the US had taken the military option off the table. In other words, the US is not going to do anything that might actually cause the Iranians to reconsider their rush towards nuclear weapons.
Obama soon will combine this measured response with another open handed offer for Iran to join the community of responsible nations. And yet you people think that this will not result in an immediate change of Iranian policy when undertaken by President Obama, whose charm and charisma wins over all.
Besides, if for some reason this doesn't bring Iran around the US will consider unleashing --I shudder to think of the havoc to be wreaked--a very sharp note.
And yet you think the president's policy is not likely to deter Iran.
ahem
February 18th, 2010 3:07pmHumanity seems never to learn from history.
Ray
February 18th, 2010 3:16pmSadly, this is where the chickens of Bush II's ruinous decision to attack Iraq have really come home to roost.
Now that the United States and its allies are facing a regime that really is determined to manufacture and deploy WMDs it finds the political capital it needs to pre-emptively deal with that regime has been frittered away, both at home and abroad.
Sergey
February 18th, 2010 5:07pmNow it looks as a race against time, where the outcome depends on what will come first: Iranian bomb or US technical preparedness to stop it. Obama being increasingly unpopular, he can chose to improve his chances to re-election by a bold military move. He will dither, of course, but eventually he could take a risk, as he done with Afganistan surge.
Dixon
February 18th, 2010 5:41pm"Ray
February 18th, 2010 3:16pm
Sadly, this is where the chickens of Bush II's ruinous decision to attack Iraq have really come home to roost.
Now that the United States and its allies are facing a regime that really is determined to manufacture and deploy WMDs it finds the political capital it needs to pre-emptively deal with that regime has been frittered away, both at home and abroad."
So, are you saying that if Bush had not invaded Iraq then Obama might have invaded Iran?
If so, and leaving out the fact that Obama is not Bush, I suggest you look at the Atlas and compare the geography of Iraq and Iran.
Invasion of Iran would never have been possible. Iraq or otherwise. But the bombing of targets in various territories, bu Obama, continues irrespective. So might it in Iran. Were Obama inclined to that action, which he appears not to be.
So, all round, the invasion of Iraq has no bearing upon the issue. Except that it does mean the US now has a large military deployment ( still ) and infrastructure of land and air-power established on Irans borders.
In the Wilderness in America
February 18th, 2010 6:09pmWhy does the dithering and appeasement of Obama remind me of the dithering and appeasement of Neville Chamberlain about Hitler and Czechoslovakia in 1938? Perhaps because there are eerie parallels. After Munich and "peace in our time," Hitler observed, referring to Chamberlain and his entourage, that he hated dealing with those "worms." I am sure that Ahmadinejad has the same opinion of Obama and crew.
But opinions are not actions, and actions are all that are left, especially if Russia sells new defensive missile systems to Iran. Israel will not wait considering this threat, and Obama will hem and haw and afterward blame Israel for things that have gone wrong.
But the world should be thankful to Israel for recognizing the threat to civilization and for acting decisively while Obama just fiddles away.
John.
February 18th, 2010 7:55pmIsrael now is where the Byzantine Empire was in the past. Until the eleventh century the West was too disorganized to help Constantinople but as soon as it could, it weakened the Eastern Empire fatally by letting the Crusaders sack Constantinople at the beginning of the 13th century - just as we do all we can to weaken an disparage Israel now, little realizing that Israel is our vanguard against the inevitable onslaught of Islam, yet again, on the West. In the same way we allowed the Eastern Empire to be swept away by the Muslims and before we knew it they had siezed the Balkans and Spain. Where Greek had been spoken throughout the Near and Middle East and Latin in North Africa, except for Greek and Coptic speaking Egypt, Arabic was now spoken, where once there had only been Christians and Jews now nearly all had been forcibly converted to Islam - those who doggedly stuck to Christianity or Judaism had to pay onerous taxes from which the Muslims were exempt, and suffer recurrent persecution. The disappearance of Greek, Latin and most of Christianity and Judaism throughout this enormous area need never have happened had we in the West only been less self-concerned, blind and more far-seeing and vigilant. As another contributor notes here, the situation is even more dangerous now, for not only do the Muslims openly plan to take over the whole of Europe, beginning in Britain, but we also have a massive 5th column within the gates that never existed in Byzantine times. How we continue to attack our most essential ally and defender while helping our own executioners simply astounds me. Many ordinary people see the writing on the wall perfectly clearly but our unbelievably blind and stupid so-called representatives do all they can to deliver us at the earliest opportuniy into the hands of our worst enemies. We, the people, must take matters into our own hands very soon or we are lost.
Truthtriumphs
February 18th, 2010 7:56pmFabio.
I wouldn't be too sure about the local Muslims.
They do worry me.
It is the local Muslims who are the reason for the protective measures that Jews have to take for their synagogues, schools etc.
It is the local Muslims who force Geert Wilders into hiding in his own country for the "crime" of exercising his right to free speech and telling the truth.
And it will be the local Muslims, when they are numerous enough and feel strong enough, who will throw the Western democracies into a state of civil war in Europe.
The neture of Islam will always ensure that moderate voices will never prevail over the extremists.
PB
February 18th, 2010 10:27pm"the world is sitting on its hands while Iran proceeds to acquire nuclear weapons in order to realise its openly declared aim of destroying the west"
Could someone just point me to where Ahmedinijad (or another government official) has stated his aim to destroy the west? Some fanatics in the earlier days of the revolutionary regime have no doubt at some point expressed this desire but I am not aware of it being stated government policy (i.e. "openly declared"). Maybe I have missed it?
I know he made a statement which was translated by some as suggesting a desire to wipe Israel off the map but by others as suggesting Israel is not a viable state in the long term. As I can't speak Persian I am not necessarily convinced it was the former (but this is much better for Israeli propaganda purposes).
Marcus from the USA
February 18th, 2010 11:18pm"Humanity seems never to learn from history."
Most American's understand and now accept that our nation was duped by George II in 2002/2003.
Thats why many Americans are very skeptical about claims of Irans alleged WMD program, and there is next to no support of an invasion.
Fooled me once Bush/neo-cons. Never Again will America be fooled.
Tom the Redhunter
February 19th, 2010 2:21amRay - February 18th, 2010 3:16pm
"Sadly, this is where the chickens of Bush II's ruinous decision to attack Iraq have really come home to roost."
Ah yes, typical leftist. They're always against the war we're fighting, but boy oh boy they're in favor of fighting someplace else!
Until we actually get there, of course.
Stuart Smith
February 19th, 2010 9:42amAfter-dinner-jacket is patently a loony, and it seems there is every possibility he will drag the world into a horrible, backward blood-bath. Then again, he might not. A case of hope for the best, but prepare extremely thoroughly for the worst.
There is no doubt in my mind that Gulf War II did expend, and continues to expend political "war capital" which would be rather useful right now to deter Ahmedinejad. But still what needs to be done must be done, if and when the time comes, despite spinelessness Western leadership.
And if that time does come, it is perfectly clear that it will require lightening-fast, and pre-emptive action. But the 5th column of naturalised Muslims and rainbow hippies will of course seek to disrupt this, each in their own special ways.
On another topic - look at yesterday's ridiculous attempts by the BBC to place the Mossad/ British passports/ assassination story in first spot on the global agenda. I believe that an awful lot of people either don't care at all, or just think - ok, got one of the buggers, let it go.
The annoying thing about it is that the operation seems to have been somewhat bungled, handing a media soft-lob to the all too prevalent Isreal hating left. And now they'll hang on like a dog humping a trouser-leg, boring the majority of people to tears.
Derek BLADES
February 19th, 2010 11:46pmIran's foreign policy is rational and non-aggressive. Which country did they last attack?
Iran may indeed be financing Hamas but America financed the IRA. The British government did not declare war on the USA. We recognised that it was done for sentimental reasons and wisely drew a veil over the affair.
The suggestion that Iran intends to destroy "the West" using a nuclear weapon that it has not yet manufactured to be delivered by rockets that it does not have comes straight fr(om the’ mad-house. Let us please stop discussing this nonsense.
John A. Davison
February 20th, 2010 9:53pmIt is not only Amendinijad that would destroy the West, we have a sitting President with the same end in mind. Obama's refusal to support the Iranian dissidents betrays his loathing of Democracy in any form whether in Israel, Iraq or in the United States. Obama is a transparent Marxist and has been since he was a teenager when he fell under the spell of Frank Marshall Davis, a friend of Paul Robeson, both members of the Communist Party USA. He has associated with the radical left ever since. He violates the Constitution on a daily basis. He should be impeached and hopefully will be. Signatures are already accumulating for that result.
jadavison.wordpress.com
Kepha
February 21st, 2010 3:07amSpeaking as a conservative American, I am against a pre-emptive strike on Iran. We managed to live with a nuclear-armed Communist China ruled by an insane despot (Mao Zedong), whose country was larger and a far more serious geopolitical threat. I say let Iran stew in its own juices for a few more decades while making it clear that an Iranian or proxy attack on the US or any ally will be met with massive retaliation. I don't think that Mahmoud Ahmedinajad has so great a faith that he thinks that the hidden Twelfth Imam will keep him or his country safe in such a scenario.
N
February 21st, 2010 4:34amMel,
Why it is true that sitting on our bums doing nothing is aiding Iranian research into nuclear weapons, the US can't really do anything. Iran is split in half over the fixed election and the desire for democratic change. If the US were to strike that could unite all of Iran...bad idea. Also, it's well know that many of Iran's nuclear facilities are deep under ground and that many of them are hidden (aka: we don't know how many or where they are). If the US does attack, what if they don't get all of the facilities? What then? What do we do when the entire Middle East erupts in war? You know Iran would blame Israel just to start a war with them. The US is already bogged down in Afghanistan, Israel would be by themselves because the U.N. would have to "debate" sending troops.
Augustus
February 21st, 2010 1:53pmJohn A. Davidson gets it. Obama'a naive A la Carte(r) Iran policy has not only damaged the Green revolutionary movement, it has demeaned America. All America should demand that he takes off his wimpish gloves and start supporting the revolutionaries.
Not with sanctions, but with undercover actions to help destroy their evil regime. This would not only help the protesters, but also the whole world. But will he do this? The sad truth is that he's far more likely to aid Ahmadinejad, a man who loves to support terrorists, delights in the kind of torture that makes Guantanamo look like a five-star hotel, doesn't even know the meaning of 'human rights', and who is capable of hanging a human being as easily and casually as one would drink a glass of water. There must be very many freedom-loving Iranians who are deeply disappointed and puzzled why a democratic leader of the free world, who carries the title President of the United States of America, holds out a hand of friendship to such an inhuman and intolerant regime.
Ron Todd
February 22nd, 2010 6:13pmThey could go a long way to destroying the west just by having nuclear weapons.
the west is not a united whole, they are not all equaly commited to defending Israel or to defeating the threat of extream Islam.
Any pre-emtive strike by the USA or Israel could have knock on effect that I could not predict. Leaving them with nukes could temp other countries in the region to aquire their own nukes.
Saudi Arabia has already bought misiles from China. China wants more control over natural resources not so far fetched that a deal could be done. Given that the missles they have are not that accurate and so only suitable for use against targets like cities can we be sure a deal has not already been done?
Philo
February 22nd, 2010 7:40pmRobbit,
I have only just noticed your remarks.
Could you clarify for me what the Samson Option is?
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