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Sunday 27 May 2012

Mr Cameron's human shields

Monday, 9th May 2011

Lots of stories this morning to the effect that the price that Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg is demanding of David Cameron to shore Clegg up after the LibDem humiliation in last week’s local council elections and AV referendum is the emasculation of Health Secretary Andrew Lansley’s much slated NHS reform package.

This seems to me to be total garbage.

First, Clegg is surely in no position to demand anything at all from Cameron. Why on earth should he be considered to be so? He is now a proven loser. The combined effect of the LibDems’ catastrophic performance in the local council elections and the even more disastrous (from his point of view) rejection of their core goal of voting reform has sent his party to the electoral knacker’s yard.

As warned here (and elsewhere) when he first made his Faustian pact with Cameron, Clegg walked into a trap from which he cannot extricate himself. If he stays in the Coalition, his party will never recover its independence. The idea that it can now wring concessions from Cameron that will make the slightest difference to that swelling electoral constituency of the terminally infantile -- for whom any deviation from neo-Marxist entitlement and grievance culture is anathema, and for whom any politician in alliance with the Conservatives is automatically and irrevocably consigned to the third circle of hell -- is absurd.

Cameron’s position is more interesting. He finds himself in the happy situation whereby the Labour party is dead in the water with no compelling or even half-sensible story to tell voters who have rightly concluded that it is now totally useless -- the gains it made in the local elections were almost wholly the result of the LibDem collapse – and that the LibDems have managed to shoot themselves in both feet and what passes for their brain (as far as the defeat of the referendum was concerned, however, Tim Montgomerie’s authoritative analysis shows this was no thanks to Cameron himself, whose out-of-touch arrogance nearly capsized both the No vote and his party leadership) .

So the Tories have no opposition. Yet far from Cameron thus being in an unassailable position and the Tories now destined to rule in perpetuity (see the anguished wails of Polly Toynbee to that end) the fact remains that he did not win the general election and has no overall majority. He thus needs Clegg and the Lib Dems to prop up his government. But he also knows that, whatever abuse they hurl at their Tory coalitionists, Clegg and co aren’t going to walk away from that Cabinet table back into the wilderness of permanent irrelevance.

So it is Cameron who holds the trump card against Clegg, not the other way round. And so Cameron can use the LibDems once more in the utterly invaluable role they have played for him so far -- as electoral human shields.

It was after all the LibDems who, in the local elections, took all the heat over the spending cuts; the Tories, whose policy this actually is, were left totally unscathed by the voters’ fury. And now step forward once again the LibDems waving their puny little fists at the NHS reforms and insisting they be all but scrapped – the very outcome upon which Cameron appears to have decided weeks ago, when he suddenly realised what trouble he was in over these reforms and decided to ditch both them and the embattled Health Secretary Andrew Lansley. Now the whole scrapping of the reforms and the dumping of Lansley can be laid off on Clegg – with Cameron holding up his own hands as spotlessly clean.

One really doesn’t know what to marvel at more – the stupidity and cupidity of the LibDem leadership, or the extraordinarily lucky hand that fate continues to play for David Cameron, who yet again can snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.

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adam

May 9th, 2011 12:01pm

Napoleon said “ Go back and find me a lucky general.”.

Cameron is a lucky general, an invaluable thing in politics.

The Tories have had a succession of unlucky ones, Cameron is the first lucky one they've had in long time.

Derek BLADES

May 9th, 2011 12:24pm

Clegg's position is stronger than Melanie realises. A Lib-Dem pact with Labour would give a new coalition a working majority.

Clegg's pact with the Tories was anathema to most Lib-Dems. The more natural pact with Labour is Cameron's nightmare.

Reverse the banker-imposed cuts and focus on employment creation and economic growth. Legg might finally see where his interests lie.

Kenny

May 9th, 2011 12:33pm

Miss Phillips wrote:

"...or the extraordinarily lucky hand that fate continues to play for David Cameron..."

"I am a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work the
more I have of it."

Thomas Jefferson

Robert Eve

May 9th, 2011 12:42pm

Puny little fists!!

Love it Melanie!!

Fabio P.Barbieri

May 9th, 2011 12:47pm

Et tu, Melanie? That the Lib Dems go into denial and repeat, one and all and in the same words, the same pathetic excuse - that they served as human shields for the Tories - that is bad enough. That every journalist in the land should let them get away with it is much worse. Please, everyone, try to exercise you short-term memory at least. The doom of the Lib Dems was spoken last November, when their electorate found out that their most solemn promise to them had been a cold and deliberate lie. Remember? Remember the personal pledges? That is when Nick Clegg lost his electorate; the rest is an appendix. The electorate did not reject the Lib Dems because they were in bed with the Tories, but because they were a bunch of bare-faced liars. No amount of political repositioning will change that.

Augustus

May 9th, 2011 1:06pm

Derek Blades - I believe you are reading this wrong. Despite the fact that about one-third of the LibDem vote defected to Labour, Labour failed in England, as well as Scotland, to
make anything of a leap back towards electability. And as for
phase two of the coalition, the LibDem shield has suffered so many dents they have no alternative but to grit their teeth and lick their wounds rather than join a dinosaur-like
labour party.

REPay

May 9th, 2011 1:12pm

The Lib Dems are foolishly coming on like a weak version of Labour (which they are minus the interest in voting refrom - that is self-serving.) The real issue is what are the Lib Dems for?

David Lindsay

May 9th, 2011 1:30pm

The Lib Dems never expected to be in government, and as a party they could easily survive the loss of office; in fact, as a party they could easily survive the loss of anything other than the First Past The Post electoral system, of which as a party they are entirely a product.

Whereas the Conservative Party, as such, is historically so accustomed to office that it could not have survived a General Election loss last year, nor could it survive a return to Opposition at any point before 2015.

That said, when Vince Cable left Labour for what looked like the rising SDP, he was an ambitious local politician and academic economist. When Chris Huhne left Labour for what looked like the rising SDP, he was an ambitious student politician and economics journalist.

Liberals are one thing. But people like those two always intended to make it big in politics. Having finally done so, they will not be giving it all up voluntarily.

D. Singh

May 9th, 2011 1:43pm

Toynbee asks: ‘Today a frightening question confronts Labour: is this the start of a long Conservative hegemony?’

The answer to that is: Yes.

The Conservative vote should have collapsed – it didn’t – and they gained seats: remarkable.

We have had thirteen years of being bullied by the Socialists.

Everyone knows that the reason why the cuts are being imposed is because Labour taxed, spent, taxed and spent. And when they ran out of money they borrowed on our credit card and put us; our children and our grandchildren in debt.

People associate Labour with benefit cheats; redundancy; homelessness; taxes; layer after layer of bureacracy; prisoners’ rights; trashing victims; Prescott’s face; elf ‘n’safety; Brown getting us into the EU mess; bailouts (because Brown signed us in); not being listened to; speed humps; delay and endless frustration.

As the Labour Party are down and nearly out for the count it is time to privatise the BBC who always put out Labour’s view – and they force us to pay for it with the telly licence.

Slim Jim

May 9th, 2011 1:45pm

Frankly, Cameron should now play hard ball with the Libs. He should now push ahead with the policies the Libs have blocked, then invite Clegg & co. to support him or eff off and resign, setting off a general election. Unfortunately, in the parallel universe of Westminster, failure is often rewarded. Lord Clegg anyone? Oh dear!

E Hart

May 9th, 2011 3:25pm

Cameron's position isn't good. His party are dancing around the floor shackled to a stiff.

As things evolve the Lib-Dems - feet dragging, slumped and cowed - aren't going to be getting the flak any more.
They'll be seen as an irritating and irrelevant appendage that's slowing up reform. From then on it won't be possible to hide the real culprit or the divisions within the coalition. This is as it should be.

The only reason for the coalition is the Hobson's choice left to the Lib-Dems after the election; they couldn't go with a discredited Labour Party; a minority Tory government wouldn't have worked; they didn't want another general election and they preferred some power to none. As for FPTP and strong government? Strong government is based on good leadership and policy not an unrepresentative electoral system and economic quackery.

From here on, the Tories' economic policy is going to unravel spectacularly and then they'll be stuffed. They took on a growth rate of 4% and have progressively whittled it down to - at best - less than 0.5% per quarter [CBI projection - 2011] - if they are lucky. Which they won't be. The one sign of life - exports - is largely dependent on factors beyond their control (the value of the dollar, commodity prices, inflation). The cuts - presently smouldering in the regions - will eventually burn down to below the Severn-Wash divide and then Dave's luck will really start to run out.

The so-called "neo-Marxist entitlement and grievance culture" - otherwise known as wishy-washy, talentless, social democracy - will then have the luxury of watching events at their leisure whilst they ponder whether they have the wit to come up with anything different.

Miliband and Balls need only tarry while the Tories are rodgered by their own petard.

Nicholas

May 9th, 2011 3:50pm

"that swelling electoral constituency of the terminally infantile -- for whom any deviation from neo-Marxist entitlement and grievance culture is anathema . . "

Beautifully characterised.

Kenny

May 9th, 2011 3:50pm

D. Singh wrote:

"People associate Labour with..."

So the 62% who voted for Labour or the Liberal Democrats are not "People"...?

Nicholas

May 9th, 2011 3:55pm

@ D Singh Shabash! But in addition to the "qualities" you so admirably summarise were that unique combination of mawkish hysteria and authoritarian nannyism, the "we know what is best for you" arrogance and all the barmy, barmy laws (which I'm sorry to see have not been repealed).

mark

May 9th, 2011 4:47pm

A different theme. Thank God for that! I'd thought you'd forgotten about British politics

Anne Hill

May 9th, 2011 4:50pm

Thank you for directing me to this site I am enjoying it
I had thought Cameron needed Clegg to get anything passed in parliament

Nicholas

May 9th, 2011 6:42pm

"So the 62% who voted for Labour or the Liberal Democrats are not "People"...?"

Ah, we saw what you did there! A nice Hain-like presumption that Labour and Lib Dem supporters are naturally cosy travelling companions on the "progressive", rainbow alliance bus. So why have two parties?

And actually, it was 52%. But only 29% preferred Labour to the Tories 36% and only 23% preferred the LibDems. But yes, a nice tricky way to show the stats. Let me give you another. At least 7% more voters preferred the Conservatives to any other single party. See how I did that?

On yer bike.

Gareth

May 9th, 2011 7:27pm

Hmmm..if I took over the reins with government spending running at £180billion pa more than its income, with the national debt heading towards £20,000 for every man, woman and child in the country before balance can be restored, I would find myself wishing I could have taken over when Maggie was thrown out.

Oflife

May 9th, 2011 8:02pm

@D. Sing: You are so spot on: "People associate Labour with benefit cheats; redundancy; homelessness; taxes; layer after layer of bureacracy; prisoners’ rights; trashing victims; Prescott’s face; elf ‘n’safety; Brown getting us into the EU mess; bailouts (because Brown signed us in); not being listened to; speed humps; delay and endless frustration."

I have spent the last 5 or 6 years (privately and via various forums) fighting many of the issues you highlighted and in part, succeeded.

David

May 9th, 2011 8:18pm

Derek BLADES...... 'A Lib-Dem pact with Labour would give a new coalition a working majority'

And how does this virtual miracle of a 'new coalition' take place? Are you suggesting that all that needs to happen is that the Libs just cross the floor of the Commons and set up a new government? In order for any chnage of power to take place it would take a general election with Ed Milliband/ Clegg leading which would be a sight so hilarious its raises laughter just at the thought of it. Get real, the libs lost massively because it was their vote that collapsed. Are you really suggesting that two parties that came 2nd and 3rd in the election have any moral authority to govern this country? Clegg got what he so richly deserved, what did he really think was going to happen. The whole country so this coming months ago yet he appeared to be genuinly shocked at the result. Anyone this out of touch with reality should stay clear of politics

REPay

May 10th, 2011 12:28am

The Lib Dems are foolishly coming on like a weak version of Labour (which they are minus the interest in voting refrom - that is self-serving.) The real issue is what are the Lib Dems for?

raymond

May 10th, 2011 10:47am

eh, Derek ? Do you mean if we had a NEW election, labour and the lib dems would have a working majority ? i thought the current figures meant that labour would need the greens etc as well as the lib dems to gain a working majority.

raymond d

May 10th, 2011 10:50am

D. Singh. Excellent post. I would also add stultifying political correctness and a anti-marriage?anti christian culture to your list.

D. Singh

May 11th, 2011 8:43am

raymond d
May 10th, 2011 10:50am

Yes. On the one-hand they are anti-marriage and therefore pro-broken families and broken Britain. Once you destroy the institution of marriage as they have done then, as nature abhors a vacuum, anything goes. For example, polygamous ‘marriages’ (a Canadian human rights case (Mormon) is being heard and will set an international precedent). If this continues (and it will) within one or two generations we will have become a tribal society – and a tribal society is inimical to democracy.

Are they anti-Christian? Let me put this straight once Christianity collapses this country’s constitutional Judaeo-Christian foundations (for example, Magna Carta) will give way leading to a new uncivilised and snarling barbarism dressed in suits.

The Socialists hate Christianity and Christians as it and they challenge the Socialist idea of morality and sovereignty: Give to God what belongs to God and give to Caesar what belongs to Caesar. It is they, the Socialists, who passed ‘equality laws’ that establish a hierarchy of rights and therefore inequality in citizenship status for Christians.

A nurse dared to offer prayers for a patient: suspended. A child spoke about Jesus in the school playground and his parents were hauled in for an interrogation by the head teacher (her mother suspended from her job as the school receptionist). A black Christian couple wanted to adopt children: but they were Christian – and therefore rejected. A Christian couple, owners of a B&B, dragged to court for displaying the courage to say no to immorality IN THEIR OWN HOME: sued. A Christian preacher asked men and women to desist from committing sin and doing good before God and men: arrested, photographed, fingerprinted and DNA swabbed. The result? The judge found he had committed no crime.

Socialism? That is the social theory that provides the necessary justification in the eyes of the evil doer; that is the ideology that commands the arrest, the suspension, the humiliation of all that is good and necessary for a society to enjoy social peace.

Stupid socialists.

Kenny

May 11th, 2011 1:23pm

Apologies for the delay in responding.

Nicholas on Nicholas
May 9th, 2011 6:42pm wrote:

"Ah, we saw what you did there!"

We...?

"...Hain-like..."

Ye gods that waa a low blow! lol

As for the rest of your comment. Where you drunk when you wrote it?

Baron

May 11th, 2011 8:57pm

Melanie: “Clegg is surely in no position to demand anything at all from Cameron. Why on earth should he be considered to be so?”

Simple, Melanie, if Clegg walks so does the boy, in any new count both are likely to lose, the boy more because the Tories would surely ditch him, Clegg less so as his leaving the coalition may be perceived as the re-dusting of libdem values, whatever these may be.

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Melanie Phillips is a Daily Mail columnist. She also writes for the Jewish Chronicle and is a panellist on BBC Radio Four's Moral Maze. Her most recent book is 'The World Turned Upside Down: The Global Battle over God, Truth and Power', published by Encounter.

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