Politics
28 January 2012
James Forsyth
It wasn’t meant to be this way. The Tories used to joke that after a year and a half in office they would be the most unpopular government in history. Instead, they find themselves five points ahead in the polls. To their surprise, and Labour’s consternation, they are in a far stronger position now than they were at the last election.
To understand what’s going on, look no further than this week’s vote on welfare reform. It epitomised three of the most important trends in British politics: the addition of a harder edge to the Tory modernising agenda, the...
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21 January 2012
James Forsyth
David Cameron is a sunny-side-up politician. At his first party conference as leader, he declared, ‘Let optimism beat pessimism. Let sunshine win the day.’ This attitude infused his approach to policy as well as politics. His economic doctrine was all about ‘sharing the proceeds of growth’. George Osborne, Cameron’s chief strategist, liked to stress that it was imperative that the Conservatives didn’t ‘sound like the old man on the park bench who says things were better in 1985, or 1955, or 1855. We have got to be the party that embraces the future.’
Then came the financial crisis. With banks...
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7 January 2012
James Forsyth
The year has begun with the British political class obsessing about the government’s new housing benefit cap. The cap is a sensible move to make sure that no one can claim more than £20,000 a year in housing benefit. It will save money. But, politically speaking, it is a ‘wedge issue’ of the sort usually deployed by American politicians. Its purpose is to force Labour to choose between an uncomfortable position and an unpopular one. Are you on the side of taxpayers, the Tories will ask, or of those being subsidised to live in places that most workers could not...
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31 December 2011
James Forsyth
Westminster used to think that 2012 would be the year that the ‘feel-good factor’ returned. Back in May 2010, all three parties expected the economic mood to lift. Combine that with the Olympics and the Queen’s Diamond Jubilee and it seemed a good bet that, come September, the country would be smiling. Labour frontbenchers feared that David Cameron would seize his chance to go to the country in search of a majority of his own.
Now even the most optimistic believe that the economy will remain in a critical condition. Yet, against the odds, Cameron remains in the ascendant....
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26 November 2011
James Forsyth
Downing Street’s negotiating team returned from Berlin last Friday afternoon in good spirits. Angela Merkel had accepted that Britain deserved concessions as part of Germany’s plan for a new European treaty. The Prime Minister was delighted, believing this to be a significant moment.
This was a first step in David Cameron’s long-term plan: to refashion Britain’s membership of the European Union, but to do so gradually rather than in one big-bang moment. This strategy, however, is based on two huge gambles. If Cameron has miscalculated, his political career will end in failure.
The first is that he has...
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19 November 2011
James Forsyth
There’s a pattern emerging to George Osborne’s autumn. He gives a big domestic set piece speech on growth and then immediately leaves the country for a meeting of European finance ministers. It is what he did straight after his conference speech last month and what he will do after the growth review on 29 November. It is a reminder that the fate of the British economy is uncomfortably linked to the fortunes of the floundering eurozone.
The Prime Minister and the Chancellor have never been more worried about the economic outlook than they are now. One Downing Street aide...
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