Politics

Alan Johnson is the Labour leader that Cameron’s Conservatives fear

3 June 2006

Alan Johnson is the Labour leader that Cameron’s Conservatives fear

In the run-up to the last general election and in its immediate aftermath, various small groups of Tory modernisers met on a regular basis to discuss how to persuade the Conservative party of the case for change. It was a dispiriting exercise. While Michael Howard had restored a vital sense of discipline and professionalism to the party, we knew that so far we had made little headway in persuading our fellow Conservatives of the merits of our arguments.

Yet, little more than a year later, David Cameron has put in place all of the key elements of modernisation: strong support for universal tax-funded public services, subordination of tax cuts to economic stability, greater emphasis on social justice, mild distancing from big business, and reform of candidate selection. And to crown it all he has achieved something none of us could ever have anticipated — a passionate commitment to the environment. He has done all of this without a major public row or shadow Cabinet revolt. He has not needed to expel any party member or fire any shadow minister.

You might think that Team Cameron would be tempted to relax, to declare that modernisation is complete, that the party has dumped the baggage that put voters off and can now prepare for government. They know that this would be a huge mistake: the Conservatives have reached base camp for the first time in 14 years and nobody blames party members for wanting to spend a few moments enjoying the view. But Team Cameron also recognise that a poll rating of 38 to 40 per cent is, frankly, not that spectacular at a time when the government is imploding on every front. Getting to the 42 to 44 per cent needed for a decent majority will make the journey of the past six months seem like a gentle stroll through the woods.

The first big challenge is the north-south divide revealed by the local election results — huge gains in London and the south-east offset by little progress in the north, especially in northern cities. Some on the right of the party argue that the ‘vote blue, go green’ message was never going to appeal to people outside the metropolitan middle classes, and are pressing Cameron to develop a harder-edged message to win over the people in the suburbs and small towns of the Midlands, West Yorkshire and the north-west.