Fraser Nelson reviews the week in politics
Few would dispute that, in the last fortnight, Gordon Brown has shown why he has been a fixture for so long at the very apex of British politics. His economic model has imploded and his debt pyramid collapsed. The taxpayer is up to his neck to the tune of half a trillion pounds to clear up the mess left by the abject failure of the bank regulatory system Brown personally designed. He has taken Britain into recession, with property prices collapsing and unemployment soaring. And yet still the Prime Minister stands politically triumphant, comparing himself to Picasso and Churchill (among other giants) while soaking up the applause of Nobel laureates for his handling of the crisis.
Lazarus only did it once. Gordon Brown has set new standards. He is back, on form and delivering a message on the economy with such power and clarity that one might almost believe it to be true. His narrative runs as follows: the British economy was strong, yet found itself under attack by a financial virus incubated in America. In addition, venal bankers led Britain’s system to the edge of an apocalypse. We might all have tumbled in, had it not been for the sure-footed action of an expert Prime Minister.
David Cameron is finding himself unable to do much more than sit back and watch the master at work. The battle lines are being redrawn in front of him. From now on, politics will be about state-owned banks, debt, repossessions and trade balances. Mr Brown’s lack of emotional intelligence suddenly matters little as financial acumen becomes the single most important test of leadership. Mr Cameron must master the art of this new war. He needs a discernibly Tory counter-narrative and must set it out with the same brutal clarity that has characterised Mr Brown’s recent conduct. He must fight and defeat the Prime Minister on his own turf.
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bill
October 16th, 2008 8:46am Report this commentSplendid Fraser. You are one of if not my favourite columnist at the moment. Your writitng reminds me of the good old days when I used to buy the Speccie.
david
October 16th, 2008 10:22am Report this commentSurely it was the Conservatives,(not letting Labour off the hook) who shamlessly plugged the 'property owning democracy' and the right-to-buy etc. that brought thousands of people into the mortgage market, who couldn't really afford to be there. I think this problem pre-dates '97 it has its origins in the 'greed is good' eighties.
Miranda
October 16th, 2008 1:58pm Report this commentSo well said. Why on earth are the Tories not singing and dancing from the rooftops about this!!
Huw Thornton
October 16th, 2008 5:28pm Report this commentGreat article, Fraser.
I think that it's even more difficult than you suggest for the Conservatives to develop a compelling narrative.
Certainly, they could go for the "greedy bankers encouraged households to take on too much debt, and the Government did nothing to stop them" angle. This might not be a winner though. It goes against the traditional Tory position of deregulating as far as possible, and allowing people to take their own decisions (including how much debt to take on). It might also be misrepresented as a patronising sideswipe against those who took on personal debt to fulfill their ambitions for themselves and their families. The easy riposte from Labour would be "How dare these Etonians with family money tell ordinary hard-working people how to live their lives".
It could also seem negative if the Government is proposing measures to alleviate the effects of household debt (as in some ways it certainly will).
It does not anyway contradict the narrative of "blues from America" as such - the Tories might seem to be claiming that the fact of a recession (rather than its severity) is entirely home-grown when patently it is not.
The trouble is that the leadership does not appear to have the gravitas that Brown can command. They can be made to appear too inexperienced if they make direct full frontal attacks on the economy. Suddenly "Tory Boy" could appear to emerge again.
I think that the calls for such full frontal attacks are mistaken and could be counter-productive. It might be better and more positive to concentrate on developing policies on how the burden of ordinary households can be lifted - and criticise the measures that the Government is taking. Brown has a track record of very well thought through and complicated measures which simply do not appear to stack up as a real remedies. There is plenty of scope for developing a narrative of "We are the people who can help people solve their own problems effectively". But this will take time.
Guy
October 17th, 2008 3:38pm Report this commentHasn't Gordon Brown funded the massive investment in schools and hospitals by doing exactly what got the banks into trouble? Using scarcely understood PFI programmes to get these massive debts off the government's balance sheet?
Window licker
October 17th, 2008 8:19pm Report this commentGreat article
hadrian
October 17th, 2008 8:21pm Report this commentIf the Tories are prepared to half heartedly play along with the rampant statism of our 'grate'( well, he grates on me) socialist Leader, and not be up front with people about the hardships we all must face to get us through this, then they might as well give up..and unless another political party are able to carry that banner, I fear U.K. could be headed for long term poverty as well.
I dispute the comment that the Eighties 'property owning democracy' and meritocracy engendered materialistic greed in and of itself.Had it been allied to a proper thrifty puritan spirit it'd have been a seed ground for the trumpeted personal responsibility we're all hearing about now when it's almost too late!
As for supposed Tory market deregulation, this is a nonsense if you mean a free for all to cheat, lie and play fast and loose with wealth. The State's responsibility is to ensure honest trading and punish cheating.
Lola
October 17th, 2008 10:10pm Report this commentMr Nelson, the World and his granny have been / are saying all that you have written for the last 11 years. Why oh why aren't the Tories? All they've got to do is to tell the truth and keep it simple and surely to God they'll get him. Mind you then they'd have to follow up and the result of that could be very hard indeed for a lot of the population, so could they stay in power long enough to see the right policy through? Whatever, someone really has to hold the fiscally incompetent charlantan Brown to account.
David Preiser
October 19th, 2008 4:33am Report this commentFraser, your second paragraph (after the bit about Lazarus) reads like Robert Peston's reporting for the last three weeks, sometimes a day or so before Mr. Brown says those things. That's the BBC narrative as well, and there isn't much Cameron or anyone else can do about it at the moment.
Fred
October 22nd, 2008 3:11pm Report this commentAbsolutely brilliant. Oh so I wish the Tories could get their act together
J Kerr
October 27th, 2008 9:03am Report this commentWhat a fantastic article. As an SNP suporter I can only agree with the above assesment of Browns phoney economics.
All smoke and mirrors and debt ridden through cheap credit and PFI/PPP the politics of short termism.
My estimations of you have gone up. Welldone
Saor Alba
Faux Cu
October 27th, 2008 2:12pm Report this commentExcellent incisive article.
It says in a few words what a host of newspaper articles have not.
Why and how this happened. Simple is best.
I especially liked the House of cards and wind analogy.
I believe that Brown is mentally unstable in that he actually believes his defence, that he was not culpable.
He also keeps repeating to himself that if he continues to repeat what he believes we will do so, despite all evidence to the contrary.
The problem, particularly in Scotland, is that the Press and BBC are slavishly following the Great Leaders line.
I sincerely believe he is mentally unbalanced.
Is there no one close to him who can take him aside and explain reality or, are they all in some political Stockholm syndrome culture
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