Politics

Fraser Nelson

Wednesday, 19th November 2008

Fraser Nelson reviews the week in politics

This is why so much now depends on the Pre-Budget Report. It will display Mr Brown’s intentions, and — if it is packed with pre-election giveaways — a window will open once more for an early election and Mr Brown will be given a second chance to do what he so disastrously failed to accomplish last autumn. The PM will, of course, go through the motions of vigorously stamping out any such speculation. Douglas Alexander, nominally the general election co-ordinator, said only last week that he had had no conversations about an early election. This tells us little. Things have changed in Number 10, and the first he’s likely to know about an election is when he hears Lord Mandelson announce it.

The Conservatives are getting ready, with a January election regarded as a distinct possibility. Mr Cameron has started his attack by declaring on Tuesday that he would spend less than the £680 billion the government intends to squander in 2010-11. While hardly radical in itself, this marks a symbolic break from the Brown-defined consensus which has trapped the Tories for so long. Labour howled with outrage, using words that have called previous Tory oppositions to heel such as ‘Thatcherite’ and ‘ideological’. Yet such words don’t work any more. On this basis, every household in Britain is ideologically Thatcherite. Everyone is tightening their belts.

This thin blue battle line may be erased by Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, who is now proving a stabilising force within the government. On Monday, he intends to lay out exactly how he will repay the borrowed money. I am told that he is also considering changing the Bank of England’s remit, to see whether it should pay more attention to asset prices in future. Instructing the Bank to ignore the debt-fuelled asset bubble was perhaps Mr Brown’s most calamitous misjudgment, and became the foundation of what will soon be known as the Brown Bubble.

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alastair harris

November 21st, 2008 1:35pm Report this comment

but surely a january 2009 election would be the biggest hypocracy of all? I thought he was supposed to be getting on with saving the planet? How does he square an election with that?

Paul

November 21st, 2008 1:42pm Report this comment

I think Fraser suggested it ; "needing 5 years to fix the problem" (para.). Reality is, of course, anything to cling onto power.

God help us all if this incompetent buffoon gets in again. Can you imagine the wreck he will make of the economy when all his short term kludges come due ?

Dave B

November 21st, 2008 2:13pm Report this comment

Labour can call an election whenever they like, they'll still lose it.

Daniel

November 21st, 2008 5:56pm Report this comment

Osborne's real problem is that he has lost the support of the City, which recognises that the current downturn is much more severe than previous recessions which have generally occurred in a context where the markets have lost confidence in a Government's ability to manage the public finances and control inflation. In these circumstances, orthodox (Thatcherite) economic policy works. But that's not the situation we face here. There are well grounded fears in the markets that some of the world's largest capitalist institutions, such as Citicorp, Ford and General Motors may not survive. It is a crisis of capitalism, not socialism. Against this background, the Tories' insistence that spending cuts are the answer borders on the lunatic. Yes, public finances do need to be saved, but first of all we need to save the economy. The Tories'ideological rejection of Keynesianism in the current crisis shows that their "brand" has, in fact, become contaminated again. Unfortunately Labour seem to be grasping the opportunities this provides in an entirely predictable manner.

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