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Osborne must address the doubts the City has about his economic credentials.

5 September 2009

Fraser Nelson reviews the week in politics

During the bank holiday weekend, an email was circulating among high-ranking City financiers with the intriguing subject heading: ‘Message from George Osborne’. It was not a hoax. An executive from a fund management firm had written to the shadow chancellor’s office asking what plans the Conservatives had to reduce the deficit, as he had not read about such plans in the newspapers. He was sent a reply — which so shocked him that he sent it to every merchant bank from London to Hong Kong. ‘It looks light on content, to say the least,’ he wrote. ‘The currency markets smell blood in the water.’

It was a classic case of a political move looking mighty stupid in the real world. A junior aide in Mr Osborne’s office — until recently a secretary working for a Tory MP — had been asked to reply to the fund manager in her own name. She started out promising to ‘set out our approach to public spending in depth’, but then proceeded to regurgitate clichés about a ‘culture of financial discipline’ and clamping down on office refurbishment. There was no hint of a secret post-election plan to reduce the deficit. The many financiers who were sent this letter would understandably conclude that there is no plan at all.

A few years ago, the Conservatives could have shrugged this off contemptuously. They have an election to win: why should they explain themselves to overexcited bankers? The reason they should is that these fund managers will have more power over the next government than any since Callaghan called in the IMF in 1976. Mr Cameron will need to borrow 20p in every pound his government spends. The investment managers will be his paymasters, and he needs them to trust him.

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Comments Post comment

drakes drum.

September 3rd, 2009 8:40am Report this comment

Mr Nelson Congratulations.

At last honesty. If the Conservative Party cannot take valid criticism from its own supporters, it does not deserve to win any election.

Osborne should be stood down as Shadow Chancellor and Cameron appoint someone who could create that necessary confidence.

There is one person in his team with the knowledge and guts to do the job and that is the former Chancellor of the Exchequer Kenneth Clarke.

The people will have far greater confidence in Clarke, as would bankers, than anyone else. It would be a great move by Cameron.

But there again that would require leadership and, I am afraid, Cameron has not shown me that he has those qualities.

David

September 3rd, 2009 10:05am Report this comment

"At last honesty"

Not really. The first half of the article says that to give detail now woudld be an error, but then concludes that detailed plans should be given to address concerns.

Alfred T Mahan

September 3rd, 2009 10:09am Report this comment

Herein lies the nub of the Tories' credibility problem, and why they aren't further ahead in the polls - and it's unfair to blame just Osborne. The "Heir to Blair" must shoulder his part of the blame too.

There is no sensation that either of them actually understand the economic problems that the country has, or indeed has ever really understood them. Their credibility gap opened with the fatuous "sharing the proceeds of growth" slogan, and they've been behind the curve of events ever since. If they are to solve any of the country's economic problems, they have to do more than respond slowly - they have to lead. And that requires an understanding of the issues and a plan for dealing with them, unpleasant though it may be, not just political antennae.

RobertD

September 3rd, 2009 11:55am Report this comment

Give George credit for recognising and stating publically, belatedly but ahead of the rest, that the spending can't go on.

If the current government is unwilling to hold a comprehensive spending review and publish the current plans in any detail it would be difficult as well as foolish politically for the Tories to publish any detailed plans, although i hope they are working hard on them under the covers.

What Osborne could and should be doing is letting the City and the country know the general parameters to which he is working and the main principles that will guide the detailed decisions.

Over the last few months there have been to many conflicting stories and it is time for George and Dave to make the priorities and principles clear and get their team in line with them.

While doing so I suggest that they take some time to talk to John Redwood who has provided some of the clearest analysis and well structured approaches on financial regulation and fiscal policy of any UK politican I have read in the last couple of years.

P.Silver

September 3rd, 2009 12:32pm Report this comment

If you think Osborne is bothered about the people of this country,think again.
Bilderberg meetings and rich friends on boats is his agenda.

oldrightie

September 3rd, 2009 1:08pm Report this comment

Fraser is Nat's new best pal?

paulg

September 3rd, 2009 9:28pm Report this comment

Fraser, the Tories could appoint a chimpanzee that sat playing with his testicles and, the city could be assured he had a better grasp of arithmetic than Brown & Darling.

Bonds are bought by people who have money, real hard-earned money, the stuff you work for and have to pay back.

Mr darling intends to lend it off them and pay it back with stuff he is going to print himself.

Some where along the line the masters of the universe will figure out this is not kosher. But who knows Brazil & Argentine pulls this trick over them quite often.

Alexandra

September 5th, 2009 12:27am Report this comment

Mr Nelson, you speak a little too often of "soon to be" this and "soon to be" that. You really are counting the chickens prematurely. Nine months is a long time in politics. The Dave and George Show may be just a little too under-developed for the electorate. Watch this space.

Nigel Bradshaw

September 5th, 2009 11:22am Report this comment

Why should the Tories do anything now that would give comfort to the markets? This would only benefit the current government and enable Brown to take the credit. Fraser - this is a necessary bit of realpolitik on Osborne's part.

peter

September 6th, 2009 11:43am Report this comment

Isn t Osborne the daft brush you invited to address your conference next week?

Couldn t you find anybody else then?

True Belle

September 7th, 2009 11:59am Report this comment

Why are they holding Ken Clarke back ?

Where is he and what is he thinking?

mark knowles

October 5th, 2009 4:58pm Report this comment

Clearly that leadership is not evident within the Brown leadership. As far as I can see Alister Darling has only presided over disasters within the ministry's he has been given as a yes man.

Perhaps somebody could explain this man's credentials apart from being a Brown puppet? I have not heard anything that resembles economic understanding, only that the rest of the world are in the same predicament - which part of the rest of the world? US&UK?

George Osbourne while I agree has no credentials to do the job, has had all the decisions made for him. How they pay it back should be given time. We are in this now and a measured response would only be sensible whoever is in power. As for the city, we are just looking for the next "strategic" punt.

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