The Tories’ push to scupper President Blair is the highest form of flattery

31 October 2009

James Forsyth reviews the week in politics

But if not Blair, then who? All the other candidates are almost comically small in global stature compared to the former Prime Minister. Balkenende might have formed four governments in Holland, but he is also a Harry Potter lookalike who has made deservedly little impact on the world stage. Jean-Claude Juncker, the Luxembourg Prime Minister, might be an expert horse-trader at European summits, but has he ever addressed a joint session of the US Congress? Would anyone turn up?

This all depends on the vanity of the EU. If it wants someone who can stand up to Putin, who will be listened to in the White House and who can — to use David Miliband’s awful example — stop traffic in world capitals (lording it over the little people is, of course, a central part of the Euro-enthusiasts’ vision), then there is no alternative to Blair. It is also rumoured that Wilfried Martens, the president of the EPP, is so angry with Cameron over him pulling the Tories out of the group that he might out of pure spite try to throw his group’s weight behind Blair.

A decision on the presidency could be taken as soon as a summit of European leaders starting on 12 November. If Blair gets the nod, we can expect Jonathan Powell, who has been touring Europe lobbying for Blair, to become chef de cabinet. In another reminder of Blair’s time in Downing Street, he will also have an uneasy relationship with his most important colleague, the high representative for foreign and security policy, who will not be happy at having a president who is such an overshadowing figure.

It would be nigh-on impossible for a Cameron government to ignore the European question with Blair popping up constantly to remind everyone of it. But equally, the Tories would have few options with Lisbon having already been ratified: they would not be able to secure any concessions or opt-outs without the agreement of all member states.

If Blair doesn’t get the job, then the Tories will feel like they have dodged a bullet and be inclined to see whatever follows in Europe post-Lisbon Treaty as really not that bad compared to the prospect of an Ode to Joy-humming Blair haunting their every move. A Blair-free Europe would be one that a relieved Cameron would be far less likely to interfere with. One wonders if this is why the wily Sarkozy floated the idea of President Blair in the first place.