Twenty years ago, Francis Fukuyama forecast the final triumph of liberal democracy and the ‘end of history’. As pro-democracy movements falter from Ukraine to China, he revisits his thesis — and asks if history has a few more surprises to spring
It looked like a revolution in reverse. The announced victory of Viktor Yanukovich in Sunday’s Ukrainian presidential election undid that country’s Orange Revolution of 2004 by returning to power the very man whom tens of thousands of pro-democracy protesters came out to defeat. And this is only the latest in a series of apparent setbacks for democracy in recent years. Over the last decade we have seen the collapse or discrediting of not just the ‘Orange’ movement, but many of the other so-called ‘rainbow revolutions’ across eastern Europe: the ‘Rose’ revolution in Georgia, the ‘Cedar’ revolution in Lebanon. Then there’s Vladimir Putin’s transformation of Russia into an ‘electoral authoritarian’ state, the undermining of democratic institutions by Hugo Chavez in Venezuela, and the rise of China as a successful authoritarian moderniser.
So what to make of it all? What Samuel Huntington described as a ‘third wave’ of democratisation began with Spain and Portugal in the 1970s and culminated in the fall of the Berlin Wall. Do the events of recent years mean this is now over? I argued in my book the End of History and the Last Man (1992) that liberal democratic principles are universal — have they been revealed not to be?
I think they are universal. But it is important to draw some careful lessons from the recent past. The first concerns the importance of institutions. The collapse of the Orange Revolution should teach us that enduring democracy is not just a matter of ideas and political passions, but of concrete institutions embodying democratic values. It is also about the human agents who create them: the right leaders can make or break a transition to democracy.
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Vulture
February 11th, 2010 2:48pm Report this commentUmm....If he was totally wrong 20 years ago, why should we take a blind bit of notice of this F-F-Fool now he's saying exactly the opposite of what he said then?
Only askin.....
logdon
February 11th, 2010 5:50pm Report this commentAnd no mention of the elephant in the global room which is named Islam.
Without factoring that roaring tusker into the equation all else is meaningless.
Islam the religion which controls every aspect of personal, business and political life is no mere faith. It is Marxism with the added plus of God for good measure and thus the double whammy.
It is all pervasive. It seeks to not only implant it’s adherents into the Western sphere but to then tell that beleaguered sphere in no uncertain terms how they must be dealt with.
Look at the recent Dizai case and how he evaded his just deserts for years, merely by screaming racism.
Norway now has a problem with striking taxi drivers because Aftenposten Dagbladet had the effrontery to print a Mohammed cartoon. They now seemingly control what we can and cannot publish.
We all know by now of Neather and the electorate shifting methods of Labour and at last it’s getting the airing this massively devious attempt at subverting democracy deserves.
That’s the thin end of an ethnic cleansing, or at the very least moderating wedge. Its going on all over Europe and depressingly, the US too, viz. for instance the Nidal case where the word jihad has been airbrushed out of all discourse.
So to talk about political trends without any mention of Allah is completely fruitless. If Fukiyama thinks Putin is the control freak Stalinist we should all be hiding under our beds for, he misses the grand authoritarian push happening right now and right in the heart of our so called democracies.
Geert Wilders is on trial in the Netherlands for telling the truth about this invidious creed. As far as I am aware no one in Europe suffered for telling it as it was about Soviet Communism.
That's the big difference. They have captured the politically correct hinterland, the institutions and the establishment.
Seemingly only the people can now stop the juggernaut. We actually need a revolution of our own, only this one is the red, white and blue version.
The signs are there. Fukiyama was wrong before and he’s sadly wrong now. He should either pay more attention or get a grip on reality and he’ll see them.
Until then all discourse is mere diversion.
oldtimer
February 11th, 2010 5:59pm Report this commentYou say:
"Such is the prestige of modern liberal democracy that today’s would-be authoritarians all have to stage elections and manipulate the media from behind the scenes to legitimate themselves."
By this I assume you are thinking of the EU and its contortions to get the Lisbon treaty ratified - keep on voting until you get the right answer (Ireland) or to go back on commitments to hold a referendum (UK).
Western European governments and institutions look more like the Leviathan, envisaged by Hobbes, than the will of the majority and no taxation without consent, proclaimed by John Locke.
stephen maybery
February 12th, 2010 10:49am Report this commentDemocracy is nothing more than the intellectual plaything of a handfull of Western nations. The majority of the World's polities will have nothing to do with it, which says rather a lot about the rest of the globe and even more about us. Why do Westerners feel so convinced that their system is a moral panacea for the World when the World won't touch it with a barge pole? And is democracy as practiced in the West so pristine that it is beyond compare? Well, the British electorate will be answering that question pretty soon, an answere I suspect will fuffle the feathers of more than a few bien pensants.
Sir Graphus
February 12th, 2010 11:32am Report this commentStephen, democracy,like capitalism, is imperfect and doesn't work very well. However, nothing else works, at all.
We are, though, entering a phase where there shall be a great test on the dictum that democracy only works until the people realise they can award themselves unlimited gifts from public largesse.
Stuart Seacole Smith
February 12th, 2010 3:05pm Report this commentI was immediately drawn to the interesting-sounding header of this piece. Then amazed at how it could be followed by such a boring, point-missing and turgid article!
The democracies that we currently enjoy(??!) in the West were built on generations of blood, sweat and tears. As was the wealth which has been amassed.
Most governments and much of the population now seem to mistakenly believe that the Western democratic construct is just so innately strong that it needs no further nurture or effort to maintain.
Hence our pervasive and destructive overly-tolerant liberal attitudes towards crime, loutishness, ignorance, scroungers, and non-EU mass imigration - with all the decrepitude and degeneration that come with it.
And as logdon said above, how Fukuyama managed to write this article without reference to the role of islam, and specifically islamic imigrants, is quite a mystery. A deliberate omission presumably.
peter gompertz
February 14th, 2010 4:44am Report this commentDemocracy is a very delicate flower which has to be watered from time to time with the blood of tyrants and patriots; which is why democracy and peace are incompatible. Mr Fukuyama is seriously misleading himself if he considers that the European Union embodies a post-historical liberal democratic world, whatever his source. While it pretends to be democratic, when democracy suits its' purpose, the European Unions's underlying, default, position is fascist; it is therefore inevitable that some time in the near future the peoples of Europe will have to shed blood to regain real democracy.
Anthony Flynn
February 16th, 2010 10:27am Report this commentThis is an article that would normally leave room for debate. But as the comments show, we are way beyond that point. No one can now avoid the future that Westminster and Whitehall have planned for our Country.
I forget the year, but it was about 2005/6, the annual household electricity bill was £361. and then came the full force of Golbal Warming plus the taxation that was added to your bill. That goes straight to Brussels. Now your annual bill is £800 to £900. Thats progress, EU style, with much more to come. Have many of you had a look at the costs of Wind Generators for these nonsense wind farms? £600,000 a time and then £20,000 a year ground rent for the on-shore ones. 50 turbines on shore and you're in for a £1,000,000 a year ground rent. All paid for by the Poor Old Taxpayer.
There is only one answer to this utter nonsense that comes out of the rear end of the Labour Party campaign bus and most of the passengers, and that is for the Taxpayers to take complete control of Direct Taxation.
There is no reason why every Board of Directors and every one man band, should not become a holding Company and engage an off-shore Agent to supply and pay for, all Staff, services and other outgoings. Money generated by the business here in Britain, would then be required to pay the invoice of the off-shore agent. In this fashion, there would never be enough money left in the Companies British Bank Account to warrent the payment of any Taxation. When Harold Wilson was PM. I worked for a French Company, Comex, based in Marseille and at that time there was currency control and you could only take £50
at a time out of the country. This is part of the way we got around that. And it's Legal. All you have to do then is build an alternative system of Public Service Funding. I have broach the subject here in Norfolk with local and County Members and the idea was well received. What it means, is that the County Council structure in the control of the County population, end up in complete control of all Direct Taxation and in time, all Taxation will be at the behest of the people, not that bunch of numpties at Westminster and Whitehall. Enough for now, Regards, ATFlynn,"Norfolk's Mutineer"
A. MacAulay
February 16th, 2010 10:10pm Report this commentDear Mr Fukuyama, isn't it all just a complete waste of time? Please go back to your Kames and allow yourself the conclusion that democracy is integral to a commercial/industrial society. The democracy follows from the industry and not the reverse. Orange whatsit's in the Ukraine are an interesting by-line, but that's all.
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