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Watch the Tories sidling up to the Lib Dems: the foundations for a post-election pact

Fraser Nelson

Wednesday, 2nd April 2008

Fraser Nelson reviews the week in politics

Now that Francis Maude is no longer lurking around Conservative headquarters dampening any high spirits he might encounter, bubbles of optimism are allowed to float with impunity around Team Cameron. For the last three weeks, the Tories have enjoyed double-digit opinion poll leads. The consensus in Westminster is that the Conservatives (or, more accurately, Boris Johnson) will capture London next month. Some bookmakers are now predicting an outright Conservative victory at the general election, whenever Gordon Brown deigns to hold it. The end of opposition appears, at last, to be in sight.

In the absence of Mr Maude, the cure for Tory euphoria lies in the other dismal science: psephology. The British electoral system remains notoriously biased against the Conservatives, such that a ten-point lead over Labour is a necessity rather than a luxurious advantage for David Cameron. To achieve a Tory victory will require a 7 per cent swing — something that has only been achieved twice, in 1945 and 1997. Mr Cameron does not just need more votes than Mr Brown. He has to secure the largest swing in the history of the modern Conservative party.

So the Tories’ contingency planning behind the scenes has to involve an unwelcome interloper: Nick Clegg. Mr Cameron can win a million more votes than Mr Brown and still be unable to form a majority — leaving him with a choice between forming a coalition, or trying to struggle by in the Commons day by day, hand to mouth (the heir to Callaghan, so to speak, rather than the heir to Blair). This means party strategists are already placing prospective policy measures into three categories. Those that could be implemented without any new legislation (such as welfare reform), those that would require Lib Dem support (education reform) and those that would only be possible with a working Commons majority (renegotiation of EU membership).

For there to be any prospect of co-operation with Mr Clegg, the intellectual framework must first be established. The task is to render obsolete the old-fashioned, conventional left-right divide — a psychological fissure in national life which Labour has always used to appeal to Lib Dem sympathies (remember Blair and Ashdown and their plans for a ‘Full Monty’ merger?). Those seeking to lay the philosophical groundwork for Tory–Lib Dem collaboration claim that the dividing line that counts in 2008 now lies between those who believe in the power of the state (Mr Brown and the Labour left), and those who seek instead a ‘post-bureaucratic state’ and the empowerment of communities and citizens (Mr Cameron, Mr Clegg and key Blairites).

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Richard Jenkins

April 3rd, 2008 10:35am Report this comment

It's all very well for the Tories to talk about localism - I'm all for it - but in practice it will never happen for two reasons:
(1) the deeply ingrained culture in Whitehall of implementing (ill thought out) national policies by imposing "a duty on local authorities"; and
(2) related to (1), the volume and burden of legislation coming from the EU, compliance with which is only achieved by the aforementioned duty on loacl authorities.

The burden on local authorities has reached the level where local government is neither local nor government. It is driven by the local "civil service" (paid extraordinary salaries) with little scope for influnce from local electors.

It is just a dream to think that a Conservative government would be able to do much to change that, even if they really wanted to.

Blue Porcupine

April 3rd, 2008 12:52pm Report this comment

All very interesting, but the discussion founders on one basic truth: the Tories are simply not natural liberals. DC keeps saying he is, but the whole premise of social conservatism is that those who decide what the correct "moral standards" should be are entitled to interfere in people's lives via legislation to uphold them. This is diametrically opposed to the Lib Dem position.

However, the real stumbling blocks to any true coalition will be that the Tories still hold extremely retrograde positions on some of the things dearest to the Liberal Democrat heart - Europe, the environment and welfare. Even on tax, they are less progressive. The current Lib Dem tax package seeks to move the brunt of taxation from employment income to accumulations of wealth, which will benefit lower earners and provide, in effect, the tax cut for the majority of the population that Cameron claims is impossible.

There is much closer ground on education (largely because Gove has nicked a lot of Laws' best bits!) but the Tory grassroots, from the discussions I've seen, still have a tremendous paternalist urge to micro-manage schooling which again is antithetical to the liberal way of thinking.

@Richard Jenkins, I agree with the diagnosis, but am (slightly) less pessimistic. There is a way of tipping the balance in favour of localism, which is to gradually devolve taxation. But somehow I can't see Cameron's Tories concurring with the Lib Dems on that.

Neil

April 3rd, 2008 5:24pm Report this comment

Fraser, you should read all the comments to James Forsyth piece on Coffee House entitled 'The insiders give the Tories the edge' from Wed 2nd April, where he mentions this article you have written about a Lib Con coalition, the reaction is very very interesting!

David Lindsay

April 3rd, 2008 5:49pm Report this comment

If there's a coalition next time, then it will be between Labour and the Tories.

There is now no political difference whatever. The idea that they hate each other is at least a generation out of date, if it was ever true at front bench level.

And neither the Southern Tories nor Scottish, Welsh and especially Northern Labour would remain in any party that went into coalition with the Lib Dems, whom they really do hate.

john problem

April 3rd, 2008 6:25pm Report this comment

But there is no raison d'etre for the Lib Dems unless they team up with somebody. Pratting about on under 20% of the vote, year in , year out, is a dead loss. And no use to the public. What is wrong with these people - don't they want power? Were I Clegg I would be spending the night hours figuring out how to get the Tories to be my pals. Were I Cameron, I would spend the night hours figuring out how to get the DimLebs to be my pals. How can it be so difficult? They have a duty to Joe Public to get in!

Blue Porcupine

April 4th, 2008 8:06pm Report this comment

"Pratting about on under 20% of the vote, year in , year out, is a dead loss."

Yeh, let's disenfranchise the twelve million people who voted for us. I'm sure they won't mind.

You're welcome to disagree with Lib Dem policy all you like. But do try not to actually be stupid.

peter mugliston

April 4th, 2008 8:26pm Report this comment

Why dont you answer letters?

James

September 15th, 2008 2:45pm Report this comment

David Lindsay; April 3rd, 2008 5:49pm

"If there's a coalition next time, then it will be between Labour and the Tories."

That is the MOST stupid comment I have ever seen on a blog, and I read a lot of them, why on earth would Labour and the Tories go into coalition? Please explain?