Beneath the radar, the Tory party is working on a strategy to win by a landslide

Wednesday, 21st May 2008

Fraser Nelson reviews the week in politics

These are bad times for Conservatives fighting the tightest marginal seats. About a year ago they were given generous resources to help them campaign, to promote their candidates and to rubbish Labour in general. Now, the cash is drying up. Unofficially, these target seats are being designated as ‘in the bag’ and the money instead is being diverted to constituencies that, pre-Cameron, were regarded as utterly unwinnable. No one in Conservative headquarters is calling it by its name — to do so would court the lethal charge of complacency — but what is being discreetly developed is nothing less than a landslide strategy.

This explains the energy with which the Crewe by-election was fought. It was the 165th most winnable seat, situated on terrain traditionally inhospitable to Conservatives. From the outset, David Cameron was pessimistic about his prospects, fearing that his party was either cursed in by-elections, or simply unable to fight on the ground with the precision and ferocity of the Liberal Democrats. ‘They like campaigning in the same way that our members like doing lunch,’ one senior Cameroon told me, summing up the gloom early on in the campaign.

Yet if there is to be a Tory landslide (the latest YouGov opinion poll suggests a Tory majority of 194) then Crewe needs to be a permanent gain. This means the Tory general election strategy must switch from a marginal seat campaign to one reaching out to places that even Thatcher failed to take. So the Crewe campaign became a proxy — albeit surreptitiously so — for an exploratory landslide strategy.

Each member of the shadow Cabinet was ordered to make the pilgrimage to Crewe at least three times. In my brief visit there I saw more senior politicians mulling around than can be found in any Commons bar on a normal day — Jack Straw trebling the police presence with his entourage and Mr Cameron himself becoming the temporary town mascot. The Tories achieved numerical supremacy, and usually went home encouraged. But those party campaigners based in the constituency, rather than making flying visits, report deeper anxieties.

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giles.bovill

May 22nd, 2008 11:52am Report this comment

Frank Field's office emailed today saying
10p tax band
Thank you for contacting me. You will by now have heard the news about the Government’s compensation package. For the 20 per cent of 10p losers who do not gain adequate compensation, I will be lobbying to see that the November Pre-Budget Statement tackles the issue. You may remember that the Government originally planned to wait for November before making any announcement.

Do any of us beleive this - when will Frank cross the floor of the house and join the caring conservatives who are placing at the centre of their policy a review of the social/welfare state.
come on frank cross the floor. Dave - invite Frank Field to do so.

I am sorry I have not been able to do personal replies to each of you but a huge number of people are writing in by letter and email and I thought it best to get a reply out as soon as possible.

FRANK FIELD

David

May 22nd, 2008 2:42pm Report this comment

Cameron, who spent the time patiently detoxifying the Conservative image, giving it the right to be heard fairly once again, in the face of the brickbats hurled by those typified by Heffer, Hitchens and Montgomorie, doesn't deserve it?

Rubbish.

Ian C

May 22nd, 2008 5:58pm Report this comment

He has earned his chance - and his timing was good as the tide was always going to turn in this parliament anyway. But he has done a job. It can be criticised but from where the Tories were after May 05 elections that would be carping.

If he is to maintain the momentum he must not assume that the next 2 years will be as easy as the past 6 months. An overt landslide strategy would be a mistake, but it must be considered a possibility.

Daniel Carins

May 24th, 2008 1:19pm Report this comment

Cameron is a fraud. He has simply aped Blair like an adoring younger brother, and cynically exploited our fixation with change, novelty and youth.

He may be charismatic, he may be a talented leader and he may be a skilled politician, but the rank and file Tory party remains the same bunch of policy and ideology-free morons that they have always been - it's just that no-one's been paying attention since 1995.

Madasafish

May 28th, 2008 7:03pm Report this comment

"One might argue that Mr Cameron does not deserve this opportunity, has not earned it."
Well he has done more than Hague, Duncan Smith and Howard to make the Conservatives electable.

Do you want blood as well as a pound of flesh?
:-)

Dave A

June 9th, 2008 4:06am Report this comment

The Tories will probably win the next election. However, it will be too late to stop the Lisbon Treaty/Constitution from being ratified, therefore, the rights of the people for self determination will have passed away. The next government will be paper shufflers acting on behalf of the thugs in Brussels.