What to watch for in Wisconsin
Hillary Clinton goes into the Wisconsin primary having won the last news cycle of the campaign, something that she hasn’t done in a while. Indeed, in the last 48 hours the stars have rather aligned for Hillary: bad weather forced her to stay in the state and campaign rather than skip out early, the plagiarism charge garnered considerable press coverage and Michelle Obama rather put her foot in it. These events have given Hillary her best chance since Super Tuesday to slow Obama’s momentum.
The polling in Wisconsin is all over the place. But if Clinton keeps Obama’s margin to within a couple of points it will be written up as a god enough night for her and suggest that her current attack lines are working. If Obama wins big, then the ‘it is all over for Hillary’ talk will grow ever louder especially as the polls show Obama within striking distance in the supposed Clinton firewalls of Texas and Ohio. Of course, if Hillary can pull off a shock victory it will be time to dust off those ‘Comeback Kid’ headlines.
On the Republican side, John McCain will be hoping to avoid being embarrassed by Mike Huckabee. The problem for McCain in these contests is that it is hard to get his vote out as everyone assumes the contest is over while Huckabee voters are determined to turn out for their candidate. This means that in a state like Wisconsin with a large Christian conservative voting bloc Huckabee has a great chance of getting close especially if the weather depresses turnout.