Why the popular vote in Texas is so crucial
It is pretty much certain that Barack Obama will win more delegates in Texas than Hillary Clinton. It would be a major surprise if Obama did not win the vast majority of the third of the delegates awarded in the caucus element of the process: as before in this race, the Obama campaign is just much better prepared for the organisational complexities of a caucus than the Clinton one.
Yet if Hillary wins the popular vote but loses in the delegate count because of the caucus part, she’ll be able to launch a campaign attacking the undemocratic nature of caucuses. Already, her campaign are describing today as a science experiment to show how much caucus results differ from primary ones. If the gap is significant, Hillary will be able to claim that Obama’s 11 caucus wins should be discounted as they are based on the effective disenfranchisement of significant chunks of the Democratic electorate.
Hillary has closed like a champ in the last few days. She has won every news cycle since Sunday morning and appears liberated by Obama’s seeming inevitability. If she wins Ohio and the popular vote here in Texas, this thing might not be over after all.