Hamastan-on-the-Nile?

The breaching by Hamas of the barrier between Gaza and Egypt has created a new situation of considerable complexity on the ground. For Israel, the danger from the free flow of terrorist men and materiel in and out of Egypt, and able to penetrate the porous border between Sinai and Israel, is obvious. On the other hand, several commentators are speculating that along with the danger comes an opportunity — that Egypt, which fears Hamas, will no longer be able to rely on Israel to control the violence in Gaza but will now be forced to do the job itself. Some are even suggesting that Gaza should be annexed to Egypt, which makes a certain amount of sense given the close cultural, family and historic ties between Egypt and the Arabs of Gaza. Gaza would thus cease to be Israel's problem and become instead what it actually is, an Arab problem; the issue of Palestinian nationalism would need to be recalibrated in the direction of cultural reality; and finally the Middle East impasse would be broken and proper moves could start towards a peaceful resolution.

Such optimistic day-dreaming, however, assumes that Egypt would swallow Hamas. But there is a significant risk that Hamas would swallow Egypt. It is becoming ever clearer that the breach in the wall with Egypt was far from a spontaneous eruption of desperate need, as the half-witted western media presented it, but was a long-standing and meticulously planned operation. Clearly, Hamas is making a push against weak Egypt, ruled by the near octogenarian President Mubarak who is desperately trying to hold off the Muslim Brotherhood inside his country from turning it into an Islamist state. And probably the most significant player in all this, as ever, is Iran. Despite the fact that Hamas is an offshoot of the Egyptian Sunni Brotherhood, it is being backed by Iran — which, as Haaretz reports, is now close to resuming ties with Egypt which have been broken for decades. The smashing of the Egyptian wall could therefore be the prelude to an Iranian Hamastan in Egypt, which would threaten not just Israel but the entire region and indeed the free world. On the other hand, Mubarak is ruthless towards his enemies. The shape of this is as yet far from clear.

Update: Daniel Pipes, who suggests that Gaza should be handed over to Egypt, publishes this revealing photograph on his site:

His caption reads:

'Egyptians and Palestinians are one people, not two peoples,' says a sign held by a Palestinian on Jan. 29, 2008.