A week after David Cameron ruled out a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, hardly a squeak of protest has been heard from Eurosceptics in his party. It’s not because they have accepted defeat, says Fraser Nelson, but because they are deadly serious about victory
Mr Cameron knows it is a high-risk strategy. His advisers long ago accepted that the days of party loyalty are over. Activists have become more aggressive, less reverential, forming a stronger bond with the constituency groups and a weaker one with Tory HQ. Crucially, Mr Cameron knows just how deep this issue runs for many of his present and future MPs. This is not about Europe, but about big government and the duty to resist it. Fighting for Britain, fighting for public opinion and fighting against the unelected officials of the European Union is what a lot of them genuinely believe they have been sent to parliament to do.
These trends will only harden over time. The new breed of MPs is resolutely Eurosceptic: it is Kenneth Clarke’s generation of soft paternalists that is dying out — as he knows. If the trend in politics is towards a transfer of power from government to communities, then the EU project is 50 years out of date. And if politicians lose heart, the public do not. Opinion polls routinely show that Britain is the most defiantly sceptical member of the EU. This gives the Eurosceptics heart: they believe, and with reason, that they speak for the mainstream.
On Tuesday, Mr Clarke rightly described the Tory position on Europe as offering ‘largely reassurance’. And it has largely worked. Mr Cameron has reasonable Eurosceptic credentials — and, as prime minister, he would have many levers to pull if he chose. For the time being, those lethal Eurosceptics who gather in Bellamy’s on a Monday night are going to trust Mr Cameron to deliver the goods, whatever form they may come in. It is a very British stand-off. Everyone has agreed to fight, but another day, in another way. And no one is in any doubt just how high the stakes still are.
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DavidDP
November 12th, 2009 11:33am Report this comment"Anonymous witnesses could again be used in murder trials"
You don't think people have the right to see their accusers? Imagine if the state started running trials against people with anonymous witnesses.
oldtimer
November 12th, 2009 12:38pm Report this commentI agree. It is a long game. The UK is now in a very weak position, financially and politically (lame duck PM). If Cameron and co make serious progress on their localism agenda, then they will be in a stronger position to argue (with the UK electorate - not the Eurocrats) the case for looser ties with the EU and build the case for leaving the EU and replacing it with a different, trading arrangement similar to that I voted for many years ago.
denis cooper
November 12th, 2009 12:39pm Report this commentI don't believe that any of this would happen while Cameron was Prime Minister.
Not unless his Commons majority was at serious risk, and that would be unlikely to happen because he could always quietly ask the opposition parties to co-operate in defeating the rebels in his own party on behalf of the EU.
So unless the leadership of the Labour party took it back to its previous antagonistic attitude towards the EU, Labour MPs would be inexplicably absent from the crucial votes, or might even vote with the Tory government.
It seems unlikely that those now controlling the Labour party would be unable to prevent its own eurosceptic wing from regaining the ascendancy.
Similarly with the Liberal Democrats, but even more so; its MPs will always seek to push forward the EU project, and will always vote (or not vote) in its interests.
Supposing that the Tory party had a reasonable majority in the Commons, the key would be Cameron's decisions on the instructions that the whips should pass on to the Tory MPs, almost of all of whom would be "loyal" - ie loyal to their party leader, not to their constituents or to the country, and perfectly willing to serve out their time as his lobby fodder.
It should be remembered that they would have become Tory MPs by being successful as official Tory candidates, and the Tory party leadership decides who can be an official Tory candidate, and apart from sitting MPs nobody is being allowed become an official Tory candidate if they're openly hostile to the EU.
If Cameron decided to act against the EU, then the Tory MPs would readily provide the majority to push through whatever he wanted; on the other hand, if he decided to roll over and give the EU whatever it wanted, then even if some Tory MPs rebelled he could still get his majority with the help of the opposition.
So it boils down to Cameron's true allegiance; and as he clearly does not believe in the legal supremacy of our national Parliament, preferring the primacy of EU law, the only possible conclusion is that his primary allegiance is to the EU.
Hence, as I said at the start, I don't believe that any of this would happen while Cameron was Prime Minister.
Yam Yam
November 12th, 2009 1:50pm Report this commentCameron should make full use of the most potent weapon any British government has at its disposal when confronting the EU: money.
As the largest net contributor to the EU budget, Britain could have a field day telling the Eurocrats that the cheque to payroll the federalising juggernaut is 'in the post' (and you know what Royal Mail are like!).
:-)
David Parker
November 12th, 2009 4:03pm Report this commentIn the forst place I rather doubt that Cameron would be prepared to face any kind of confrontation with the EU and certainly not to go so far as witholding any of our payments to them, even though, as Fraser says, this would be one way of proving his alleged euroscepticism.
Secondly, any so called British Sovereignty Act, even though it might allow British Courts to ignore the ECHR, would inevitably be over-ruled by the ECJ, to which our courts are now legally subordinate, resulting in exemplary "fines" if they refused to review their judgements accordingly.
Whilst the French, much to their credit, often treat the dictats and fines imposed by EU with the contempt which these deserve, the reactions of British Governments so far has been exactly the reverse, to the direct cost of British taxpayers and businesses.
I only wish that Fraser's explanations of Cameron's theoretical euroscepticism and intentions were correct, however, if that were to be the case this would inevitably lead to an eventual withdrawal ( or expulsion) of Britain from the mainstream EU, something which both Cameron and Hague have repeatedly emphasised that they would never support.
Whilst I agree with Fraser that, under the auspices of a genuinely eurosceptic government, a policy of "civil disobediance" might eventually lead to a constructive renegotiation of our EU relationship, I also agree with Denis Spooner that this is unlikely to happen under Cameron's leadership. The fact that he has deliberately tried to purge the party of eurosceptic new candidates may give a truer indication of his europhile intentions.
David Parker
November 12th, 2009 4:36pm Report this commentApologies to Denis Cooper, for the typo, I was brought up in a family addicted to Spoonerisms, and often unintentionally use them, sometimes with embarrasing results!
Tom Burkard
November 12th, 2009 5:02pm Report this commentAccording to an article in Pravda, "...the EU is a reincarnation of the former Soviet Union". They certainly know a thing or two about sham democracy, meaningless declarations of 'human rights', and self-perpetuating elites.
And as they rightly pointed out, free speech is like pregnancy: there aren't any half-way measures. Hate laws, enacted in the name of human rights, are capable of being interpreted to suit the prejudices of whoever is in power.
Back in the 1980s, I joined the Territorial Army to do my bit to preserve liberty and the rule of law. Never once did it occur to me that we would have to look to the Warsaw Pact nations to protect us from domestic despotism.
See http://english.pravda.ru/opinion/columnists/04-11-2009/110289-berlin_wall-0
terence patrick hewett
November 12th, 2009 8:49pm Report this commentIf Denis Cooper's analysis is correct in assessing Cameron's alleged Europhilia then it would mean the end of the Tory Party, since a large bloc of conservative voters would vote UKIP at the first opportunity.
Avudale
November 13th, 2009 3:47am Report this commentCan someone tell me how it benefits us by having our laws, defence and court decisions made in Brussels by French and Germans (and the 25 or so other countries)?
Have we recently emerged from a communist or fascist state and require the assistance and approval of an EU consensus to temper our wayward country?
Do we harbour notions of European colonialism and a secret desire to direct the European continent?
No? Then free trade will do very nicely, thankyou.
Hepworth
November 13th, 2009 12:13pm Report this commentIf Cameron Is the slightest bit serious, (which I doubt) He would campaign for immediate withdrawal from this nest of vipers.
I myself will vote BNP on the basis that they absolutely will.
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