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It's Giuliani v Thompson, then v Clinton. Maybe.

Tuesday, 12th June 2007

Michael Barone's columns and blog are essential for anyone interested in American elections. Take his latest post, in which he compares the polls for the Democrat and Republican contests:

We've been seeing a lot more movement in the polls in the Republican race for president than in the Democratic. Stark evidence for that proposition comes from the Rasmussen Report's weekly updates. On Monday came Rasmussen's numbers in the Democratic race: Clinton 37 percent, Obama 25, Edwards 11. That's Edwards's lowest number since the poll reported February 19, but all three candidates have been running within a narrow range starting February 26: Clinton between 32 and 38, Obama between 25 and 33, Edwards between 11 and 18. Rasmussen showed Obama tied with Clinton on April 23 and 2 points ahead on April 30.

The Republican polls are fascinating, however:

The numbers Rasmussen released Tuesday are a shocker: Giuliani 24 percent, Thompson 24, McCain 11, Romney 11. Thompson is running significantly ahead of where he has been in Rasmussen's surveys since his name was first included (in the results reported April 3). Giuliani is running significantly below the 33-37 percent level he had during most of February and March. McCain's 11 percent is his lowest number yet, and Romney's 11 percent must be disappointing to him after the 15-16 percent he was registering in the preceding three weeks.

Wow. Thompson tied on 24 per cent, from a standing start, and without even declaring. And here's his conclusion:

Some Democratic columnists have noted, with just a bit of glee, that Democratic primary voters are more satisfied with their party's candidates than Republican primary voters are with theirs. That's an accurate observation, I think, and it's underscored by the apparent greater fluidity of Republican voters (or the greater viscosity of Democratic voters).
...It's not clear whether Thompson will hold up and prove to be what some significant number of voters think he is. It's not clear either that he's as strong a general election candidate as Giuliani and, to a lesser extent, McCain have been in general election polls. The generic Republican brand right now is a loser. Giuliani and, to a lesser extent, McCain sell better than the generic Republican brand. Thompson doesn't, which may only mean that he is not as well known.

It really is the most wide open race in memory. Neither party's candidate is remotely certain. Hillary looks more so, but there's still the Gore factor to, well, factor. And Obama may yet take wing. As for the Republicans: your guess is as good as mine.

But even assuming the current leaders win, and its Clinton v Giuliani: who'd care to call that one? Hillary with her 'anyone but Hillary' tag, and Giuliani with his 'anyone but Rudy' tag.

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Ross

June 13th, 2007 12:29pm

Nichael Bloomberg is still considering an independent run as well, if the main parties choose weak candidates without crossover appeal the he might have a chance.