Knife attacks: damned lies and crime figures (Daily Mail)

Ross

Additional problems with the BCS are:

- It doesn't cover crimes against those who aren't permanent residents of the UK, such as tourists or migrant workers.

- People's aren't very good at remembering what has happened over the course of year. When studies have been done by surveying people whom the surveyers know reported crimes to the police fewer than half of respondents recall the crime for the survey.

Chris

So - if the statistics don't agree with your prejudices - make it up. The fact is that real life is not at all like the ridiculous fantasies of the law and order lobby and the combination of nasty authoritarians and cowardly misanthropes who back it. Crime is not really much of a problem - the police state that's been put in place using the justification of a largely imaginary threat does much more to destroy all our quality of life.

john problem

Our leaders would never be able to cope with finding their way through a load of numbers like those above. Completely impossible. Not worth the time. Too much like SATs. Not at all like a PPE at Oxfam.

Charles

It is entirely possible that the 'risk' of becoming a crime victim is rising whilst recorded crime falls - if one takes the view that it is vigilance which drives crime down and that any relaxation tends to be rewarded accordingly, ie crime statistics do not inherently reflect the propensity for criminality.

Stephen Pollard

Chris: Talk about the boot being on the other foot! None of my statistics are made up. I don't sugggest that the official figures are made up, either; simply that they do not cover the full extent of crime.
And, specifically, it is simply wrong to argue that the level of crime now is better than, say, fifty years ago. The facts - facts, facts, facts! - are unarguable, and anyone who suggests otherwise is either lying or ignorant of the facts.

Ray

There is also the problem of massive under-reporting of crime.

For example, once upon a time if someone was vandalising a bus shelter passers-by would remonstrate with the perpetrators or neighbours would report them to the police. Nowaday, hardly anyone does - either through fear of being abused or assaulted (or even knifed!), or because they simply don't believe the police will bother to react.

THX1138

Yeah but I would much rather live in Britain now than say fifty years ago more crime or not. I'm really getting hacked off with all broken society stuff that all your right wing pundits are spouting.

I love living in LDN It makes you feel alive it's exciting & would rather put up with a bit of crime than live in the sanitized police states of Singapore or Switzerland.

Conlige suspectos semper habitos

Let's have a whip-round to buy a stab-proof vest for THX1138 so that he can continue to enjoy the 'excitement' of living in London.

Nick Strange

Stephen Pollard criticizes the British Crime Survey for many imperfections, but surely in one case he goes too far. We would all be fascinated to hear his suggestions on how the BCS could interview the victims of murder.

PJD

As both the number of reported crimes and the BCS are showing annual falls it is hard to argue that in reality the crime rate is actually increasing.

This is because both systems are using the same methodology year by year.

Also comparing recent robbery figures with ones from before WWII negates the obvious that people now possess a lot more valuable items worth stealing.

THX1138

Usual Suspects- Don't need one I can Run amo ventus.

Mark

There must be something in the air when Stephen Pollard and Neil Clark singing from the same hymn sheet- in this case re the unprecedented level of 'knife crime'.
That something may well be Mr Sammlers Planet, the celestial body whose existence was denied in 1970s New York by the antecedents of the likes of THX1138, and whose centre of gravity is now poised over present day London.
Lets hope that THX1138 sees out the next decade safely, and doesn't decamp to 'sanitized' Singapore or Switzerland (or Suffolk?)between now and 2018.

Mark Frank

This article is bizarre. Who is claiming that the BCS reports all crime or that there is less crime than there was in the 1950s. The significant claim from the BBC and the Home Office is that crime has been dropping since the mid-1990s. The BCS is incomplete, and never pretended to be otherwise, but it has surveyed a large proportion of crime in a consistent manner since 1981. It is the best evidence available on **trends** in crime and it is not "woefully inadequate"(certainly better than "what people instinctively know"). It is also consistent with a global trend among developed countries.

As I am sure you know, in 2006 the government commissioned an independent review of home office crime statistics under Professor Adrian Smith (a former
president of the Royal Statistical Society). The review was broadly supportive of the BCS but made many recommendations for improvement, particulary the importance of having local crime figures as crime rates vary so much from place to place. These two quote are relevant:

"Both the BCS and police recorded crime statistics contribute to building up the national picture of crime trends. The two approaches measure different things (victimisation on the one hand, reported and recorded crime on the other) and each has its strengths and weaknesses. **Together they are currently the best sources to provide a picture of what is happening to trends in crime**, but there remains a range of crimes not captured by current national statistics."

"However,we are also clear that **there can never be a measure of ‘overall’ or ‘total’ crime**. There will always be
crimes not adequately captured in the statistics and a single total number would bring together a very wide
range of acts and degrees of seriousness in a not very meaningful way. What matters – and is attainable – is
to develop national crime statistics series that have clearly understood strengths and weaknesses and are
consistent enough over time to provide trend data for whatever area of crime each measures."

Yes, it is possible to use statistics to support almost any case. But statistics are the only kind of evidence that matters in the long run. They are the truth. That is why it is important to interpret them intelligently.

John Clegg

This is great news, crime down another 10%. So at this rate in 10 years time, there won’t be any more crime!!! and the police can stay off the streets with a clear conscience.

Its all a bit like our yearly improvement in A-level results, now over 90% of students get an A-grade. If this rate continues soon they will get an A-grade for spelling their names correctly.

Mois, cynical?? (“tractor production figures” my friends, or more simply lies)

PJD

John Clegg, I am guessing that you didn't get an A grade at A-level maths.

Crime would only drop to a zero if it dropped by the actual and not percentage amount for 10 consecutive years.

And for the record only 25% of A-levels are given an A grade.

Alan

FWIW, my own experience is entirely in line with the statistics that show crime in this country peaking around 1995 and declining since then. My immediate family and I were the victims of eight crimes of theft or violence between 1991 and 1998 - and of none before or since.

THX1138

SP Looks like that A daily must-read Daniel Finkelstein says your wrong & as a regular follower of the fink tank I would be happy to bet he knows more about stats than you.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/daniel_finkelstein/article4380637.ece

The money quote.

"But crime is falling. Sorry, but it just is. "

I don't remember Danny being from the liberal-Left do you?