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Friday 5 December 2008

Overstretched and over there

Douglas Hurd on James Fergusson’s new book

Second we launched a separate war in Iraq which, indefensible in itself, had the added disadvantage of drawing away the troops, money and public attention which Afghanistan deserved.

The military situation in Helmand province has improved since Fergusson finished his book. The Taliban no longer launch large-scale direct attacks upon our positions; instead they are following the example of our enemies in Iraq by relying on mines and roadside bombs to inflict their casualties. But the Karzai government in Kabul is not using the military respite with any real determination. Fergusson, like Sir Richard Dannatt, looks at the resulting strain and overstretch largely from the point of view of our armed services and their relationship with ourselves. He gives figures of those leaving the Army and tells poignant stories of sadness and disillusionment.

If it is true that we cannot simply continue as at present, then there seem to be two choices. First, we might be able to reconcentrate on our original objective, that is denying al-Qa’eda a base in Afghanistan. We would leave the rest to the Afghan government. We would confine our own efforts to providing as best we can for our own security against terrorist attack. This return to the original objective is easier to state than to implement.

The alternative is to create our own surge in Afghanistan in the hope of achieving a decisive result. This would mean reorganising Nato’s presence, doing away with the national caveats and establishing a common Nato operational fund as David Cameron has suggested. It would involve embedding development officials and giving local commanders budgets for immediate development projects (such as the American Commanders in Afghanistan actually have) regardless of whether they meet DIFD criteria. It would mean repeated air action against al-Qa’eda in the border provinces of Pakistan with or without the consent of the Pakistan government.

We are confronted with these unpalatable options because of our own mistakes. Some of us hoped that Gordon Brown would look the facts in the face when he took over from Blair. Instead we have more of Des Browne and the old rhetoric. The chance of an acceptable solution is slipping away.

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