Home > The Magazine > Cartoons

Tuesday 2 December 2008

Dare to dream and make your ultimate trip a reality

The latest culture as recommended by our staff

Michael Henderson

Michael Henderson suggests

Email registration

Free weekly email update

Great products and special offers for Spectator readers

Click here for great value events

Click here for exclusive articles, offers, tasting notes and discussion

Investment: Stock-picking

Remember the wisdom of Keynes and Mark Twain

Anthony Bolton

Wednesday, 6th June 2007

On 11 September 2001, I had lunch with a contact who runs a specialist broking firm and is an expert in general insurance. We talked about the insurance industry and by coffee we had convinced each other that the outlook was pretty good. As we reached this conclusion, the biggest insurance event in history was taking place on the other side of the Atlantic. Following this horrific incident, the worst-hit shares in global markets were insurance, hotel and travel companies. I later increased my fund’s holdings in these industries and made good returns as the shares recovered. Being in the investment business sometimes involves being hard-nosed — especially as a contrarian, which means investing against the crowd. If an investment feels ‘comfortable’, then you’re probably too late. The stock market is an excellent discounting mechanism: by the time everyone is either excited or worried about something, it is normally already in the price. When there is great optimism or great pessimism, there is the most opportunity.

Many things have changed dramatically in 30 years of stock market investment, but some haven’t. Fundamental, research-led contrarian stock-picking works as well today as ever. Doing what everyone else is doing might work in the short term, but is nearly always costly in the long term.

Anthony Bolton has managed Fidelity’s Special Situations Fund since 1979; he steps down from the fund at the end of this year to take on a new role at Fidelity .

Previous page 1 | 2 | 3 | 4

More articles from: Anthony Bolton | this section

Print this article | Email to a friend | Permalink | Comment

Post this entry to: del.icio.us | Digg | Newsvine | NowPublic | Reddit

Shared Opinion

Hugo Rifkind

If there really is a secret Zionist brotherhood running the world, why aren’t I a member?

Slow life

Alex James

Life begins

Life lessons

Kate Chisholm

Talking to my dentist, as one does, we discover a mutual enthusiasm for Radio Three’s Composer of the Week (Monday to Friday) and especially its presenter, Donald Macleod.

Brown bets the farm

The Chancellor of the Exchequer’s Pre-Budget Report (PBR) was one of the most arresting political events of modern times.

Sarkozy’s dream of taming America is doomed

Irwin Stelzer

The American model of lightly regulated capitalism may be in disrepute, says Irwin Stelzer. But the French President’s ambition is deluded

I will always defend a big spender like J.M. Keynes

Nancy Dell�Olio

Nancy Dell’Olio makes an impassioned case for Keynesian economics as the necessary remedy for the global crisis. It is to the Cambridge economist that we should turn once more

Why I’ll never be Warren Buffett

Ross Clark

Ross Clark on investment

Strictly Come Dancing is not the BBC’s core broadcasting

Rod Liddle

Rod Liddle — a former editor of the Today programme — says that the Corporation must stop pretending to be democratic if it is to keep the licence fee. Unashamed elitism is the only chance that the Beeb has in the new media world