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Monday 8 September 2008

The Cold War is back

The new arms race is deadly because Russia is so fragile

Fraser Nelson says that Putin’s bellicose strategy — spending his oil millions on a deadly new arsenal — is more dangerous than the actions of his Cold War predecessors because Russia is so vulnerable to economic and social collapse

Washington now hopes to position missile defence interceptors in eastern Europe. Congressional funding for the scheme is far from secure, and, seven years ago, Mr Putin said quite explicitly he was happy for a shared anti-missile system to proceed. Yet his response last month was incendiary. If the interceptors were mobilised, the Russian President declared, ‘then we disclaim responsibility for our retaliatory steps, because it is not we who are the initiators of the new arms race which is undoubtedly brewing in Europe’.

In the Kremlin’s eyes, there already is an arms race — the only question is how quickly it can respond. Inside Russia, there is regular talk of how its missiles might penetrate any American defence. The military is already on Cold War alert. Three months ago, for example, the Vladimir Missile Army held a five-day exercise simulating full-on nuclear war with America. It practised moving its Topol-M missile under camouflage, to fool Western satellites. The army commander then gave details in an interview to the Krasnaya Zvezda newspaper — in full knowledge that translated versions would instantly arrive on the desks of Western intelligence agencies. It was the nearest thing to writing the CIA a ‘from Russia with love’ memo.

These are not the clandestine methods of the Cold War. All this missile testing, ostentatious war-gaming and tub-thumping is clearly designed to draw attention to Russia. It is consistent with a bid to lead a new power axis — perhaps based upon the gas cartel which Russia is discussing with Iran, Qatar and Venezuela. Mr Putin visited the Middle East soon after making his anti-American outburst as if preparing the ground for a new coalition of aggrieved states hostile to America.

More articles from: Fraser Nelson | this section

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