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Tuesday 7 October 2008

If Gordon wins next time, the Derek Conway case will be one of the reasons

Fraser Nelson reviews the week in politics

Here lies a key difference between Mr Cameron and Mr Brown. When deciding the future of Mr Hain and Mr Conway, both jumped the wrong way at first — saying their future would be a matter for the respective investigating authorities. But while Mr Brown stuck to this misjudgment, telling himself (and others) that Mr Hain’s future was out of his hands, Mr Cameron realised he had to act. It was over before anyone could say ‘U-Turn’. One of his principal strengths as Tory leader is this early recognition and correction of mistakes.

But the damage is nonetheless done. The word ‘Conway’ will now silence any Conservative seeking to chide Labour for financial impropriety. Mr Brown may well be struggling against the weight of five financial scandals (two now the subject of criminal investigations). But he can now say, as Jack Straw did on Wednesday morning, that all parties have trouble with finance. To the immense frustration of the shadow cabinet, they are in no position to argue.

All this serves as a grim allegory for a greater misery — Mr Cameron’s failure to open a decisive lead over Mr Brown. It is hard to list the miseries heaped on Mr Brown: the economic misery, a prisons inspector denouncing his prisons policy, the police marching outside Westminster, the unfolding calamity of Northern Rock with ruinous implications for the public finances. Yet the last ICM poll gave the Tories a lead of just two points. When Tony Blair was at this stage in parliament, in January 1995, his lead varied from 18 to 40 points.

There should be a sense of excitement gripping the Conservatives, a feeling that their wilderness years will soon be over. Brown’s aversion to rival power bases in Cabinet means none of Mr Cameron’s top four are visibly outclassed by their Labour counterparts. They are winning the battle of ideas. What was under Blair a rapid-rebuttal machine has, under Brown, become a rapid plagiarism machine where Labour can now put out their own version of Tory policy in a few hours (as it did over stop and search).

Yet the sense of opportunity is matched only by Tory frustration at the pace of advance. In November, I outlined the debate between those who urge Mr Cameron to be more radical and those who counsel caution. In spite of official denials, this argument — dubbed the ‘hare and the tortoise’ debate by the Conservativehome.com website — continues to divide the party although the debate is more intense on the back benches than within the shadow cabinet.

Let us be clear: there is no mutiny. But there is concern that — as one MP puts it — Mr Cameron regards his opinion poll lead as a precious egg, which he may drop if he tries to run too fast. There is concern about the need for better policies and people. But the most sickening sensation of all on the Tory benches is a feeling that, with a few more disasters like the Conway case, Mr Brown may get away with it after all.

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