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Saturday 17 May 2008

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Why I oppose an attack on Iraq

Former shadow foreign secretary Gerald Kaufman reveals his deep suspicion of President Bush, and warns Tony Blair that war would mean a widespread Labour revolt

The United States has already, in my view rightly, been criticised internationally not just for failing to initiate genuine peace efforts in the Israeli-Palestine conflict but for giving active support to brutalities the Israelis have inflicted on the Palestinians; when Bush criticised the recent Israeli killings of civilians in Gaza, the toughest description he could rake up for the Israeli action was the limp 'heavy-handed'. Bush's recent four-page White House lawn speech, containing two pages of orders to the Palestinians and two paragraphs of suggestions to the Israelis, was not simply unhelpful but positively harmful. If Tony Blair, as reported, is telling Bush that an attack on Iraq should not take place until a genuine Israeli-Palestinian peace process is under way, he is right. But I hope Tony Blair is also explaining to Bush that, even if an Israeli-Palestinian peace process were to get under way, an attack on Iraq would wreck it.

I hope Tony Blair is also pointing out to Bush that, if the US were to attack Iraq, Saddam would not only fight back against the US but would certainly attack Israel, as he did during the Gulf war of 1991. In 1991 Israel's prime minister was the Likud's leader, Yitzhak Shamir, who, while never a candidate for the Mensa Society, at any rate understood an instruction when he got one. Told by Bush senior not to retaliate against the Scud missiles raining on Tel Aviv, he complied. It is perfectly obvious that Arik Sharon, even if he received such an instruction from the White House, would ignore it and retaliate against any Iraqi attacks on Israel. The result could be a wholesale Middle East conflagration.

Such a conflagration could generate economic action that might disrupt Western economies. President Eisenhower threatened to undermine the pound sterling if Britain and France did not end their invasion of Egypt during the Suez war of 1956; Harold Macmillan backed down instantly. The oil shock caused by Arab retaliation against the West at the time of the 1973 Yom Kippur war damaged the economies of the developed world for many years afterwards. The same, or worse, could happen again. No wonder Gordon Brown is said to have his doubts about military action against Iraq.

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