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Saturday 17 May 2008

Cover Story

Why I oppose an attack on Iraq

Former shadow foreign secretary Gerald Kaufman reveals his deep suspicion of President Bush, and warns Tony Blair that war would mean a widespread Labour revolt

And, while success breeds support, failure is lonely. The British people supported the Gulf war and the war against terror following 11 September (though one has to ask if Bush would ever have launched a war against terror if it had not been for 11 September). The YouGov poll in Monday's Daily Telegraph demonstrated that a massive majority of the British people neither like nor trust Bush and would not support a war against Iraq launched by him. A dozen years ago, Neil Kinnock and I were able to bring a predominant majority of Labour MPs, and the Labour party conference, into line in supporting action against Iraq because there were clear Security Council resolutions authorising such action. We did not support the Tory government; we supported the UN. Today, there is substantial resistance in the parliamentary Labour party against war on Iraq, not just from the usual suspects, the Tam Dalyells and the Alan Simpsons, but from many mainstream MPs. Tony Blair would find it difficult to support and participate in a war against Iraq whose majority in the House of Commons was provided by the Conservatives.

I have described without enthusiasm a number of the circle of advisers around George W. Bush. There is, however, one member of that circle of advisers in whom I have great confidence: Tony Blair. When Tony Blair talks about the importance of Britain's special relationship with the US, I do not believe he is thinking of our influence on a broad range of US policies; after all, from steel tariffs to global warming, the Blair government does not see eye to eye with the Bush administration. I believe that Blair's interpretation of the special relationship is based on his knowledge that public support for Bush in general enables him to proffer caution in private on particular matters. I hope so, anyhow. If a division were forced in the House of Commons on potential action against Iraq, my loyalty to Blair would lead me to vote with him. But I hope Blair will ensure that I never have to make that choice.

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