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Thursday 4 December 2008

Gordon Brown will lose his lustre

Don’t go greener or get meaner, Mr Cameron

Key insights from the top American pollster

Six months ago, Cameron could be the anti-Blair candidate and hold a comfortable lead over the government. Now, with Brown in charge, that is not enough. The real challenge for Cameron is not his own persona but the clear blue water between himself and the party he leads. In a matter of days, Gordon Brown proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that he is not Tony Blair. But after two years as leader, my conversation with voters suggests that the Conservatives have not yet made the case that they too have changed.

The British are the toughest cynics in the world — and they have a collective memory that is almost elephantine. Every time someone in my group criticised Labour, someone else mentioned Thatcher. Every time the issue of schools or the NHS is raised, someone else complained about John Major. Nobody is questioning Cameron’s sincerity or his commitment to the environment and public services. Rather, they are questioning the party he leads. In the words of the voters, ‘He may be ready for election, but is his party?’

Despite pressure from his party activists, Cameron must avoid the temptation to jump left or right — to go greener or get meaner. Politics in Britain today is not about right and left – it is about right and wrong. The British public is not asking for ideology from him. After ten years of New Labour and old problems, they just want answers from their government. And quickly. The antidote for the current Tory troubles is in the facts: violent crime doubling, house prices soaring, chaos in the NHS. Then ask Britain two questions that Brown cannot answer: ‘Is New Labour really new after ten years? Does Labour deserve yet another five years?’

As for the Prime Minister, a keen student of history, he will undoubtedly be aware that if he loses an autumn election, he would probably become the shortest-serving British Prime Minister of all time. Against this, he must balance the political winds and the darkening clouds of ever-growing change blowing in from all directions. His grace period with voters is proving short; he cannot escape his association with the past ten years, and the longer he waits to call an election, the louder the cry for a change of government will become.

No, there isn’t a clamour for a vote right now, but Brown could argue that the public ‘deserves to choose’ who leads their country. Then he should ask the question that Cameron fears the most: ‘Who do you trust in a dangerous and uncertain world?’

Right now, Gordon Brown is the man of the moment — but that will change. All of Westminster is well aware that he doesn’t like David Cameron and won’t give him the respect normally afforded the opposition leader. More than anything else, David Cameron needs more time. If the PM is smart, he won’t even give him that.

Frank Luntz is the author of Words That Work: It’s Not What You Say, It’s What People Hear. His most recent focus groups of the British electorate can be seen on BBC2’s Newsnight website.

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