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David Cameron’s judgment day

This will be Cameron’s finest hour — or the scene of a lynching

Fraser Nelson

Wednesday, 26th September 2007

This will be a make-or-break conference for the Tory leader

It is a fair bet that a British opinion poll found its way to Sacramento. When Mr Cameron first wrote to the governor, the Tories were ten points ahead. Now — according to a YouGov poll published on Tuesday — he is 11 points behind: and the word is that the notoriously image-conscious Mr Schwarzenegger did not want to grandstand on the deck of a sinking ship. According to one of Arnie’s advisers, ‘There’s just no way he wants to do this particular show any more. He’s an image man, and Cameron’s image is in the can.’ Ditto Rudy Giuliani, the Republican presidential frontrunner, who insisted he was not photographed with Mr Cameron when they met last week. In the pitiless eyes of such figures, the Tory leader’s stardust has been replaced by the aura of a loser.

All this makes a murderous backdrop for what will be Mr Cameron’s second, and possibly last, conference as Tory party leader. He was the future, once. Now we are in the extraordinary position where serious Tories talk about Mr Cameron being gone by Christmas, after losing an autumn election — and ask whether the Tory party would survive in its current form, or be torn apart by a modernisers-versus-traditionalists war. It is not much of an exaggeration to say that, if Mr Cameron fails, the party may face an existential crisis.

Make no mistake: this is precisely Gordon Brown’s goal. He may not have mentioned Mr Cameron by name in his conference speech in Bournemouth this week, but the Tories dominate the discussions, strategy and ambitions of his inner circle. In private conversation, Cabinet members talk incessantly about how their policies will shaft the Tories. Mr Brown will judge the success of his own conference only at the end of the Tory gathering.

One Labour insider explained the thinking to me in Bournemouth earlier this week. ‘If Blair had lost in 1997, it would have been the end of Labour as we knew it. We want this to be the end for the Tories. The talk about an early election is a gamble for us: if it focuses their minds, they may unify. But my money is on them thinking they have already lost, and starting to kick each other to death.’ It is imperative, in Gordon Brown’s election plan, that this killing spree starts now.

As if on cue, a phalanx of senior Tories are quietly preparing themselves for the ritual slaying of yet another leader — a depressingly familiar drama which, as it happens, has a habit of playing itself out before an Olympic year. The party has members aplenty who have long despised Mr Cameron and tolerated him only because he delivered an opinion poll lead over Labour not seen since it was led by Neil Kinnock. One party agent told me that twice the number of people are coming to Blackpool from her constituency — not to prepare for battle against Labour, but, astonishingly, ‘because they hate Cameron and want to see him take a kicking’. They come with the same macabre curiosity that led mediaeval villagers to a hanging.

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James B

September 27th, 2007 2:48pm

It is quite correct that the marginal seats are where it is all happening, and not the Winter Gardens. Relentless targeted leaflets and letters, paid for by Lord Ashcroft can do far more to make up a swing voter's mind than the grumbling of a few discontended party members in Blackpool. Most voters simply do not pay attention to party conferences. It's only the political geeks - and in this category I include myself and just about everyone who contributes to this blog - who get excited about 4 days at the seaside in autumn. I assume that the Conservatives are conducting their own polls in the target seats just as Labour is. I would very much like to know what these polls are saying. That way we can know whether David Cameron's recent challenge to Gordon Brown to call an election now is based on hard evidence that, where the votes matter, his appeal is succeeding. Or whether it was pure bluff. So far as Blackpool is concerned, I simply can't see it being anything like a re-run of 2003, when IDS made a desperate and ultimately futile pitch for his own job against a backdrop of staged applause from CCO stooges.

Barbara Bishop

September 28th, 2007 9:36am

Gordon Brown is waving Cameron off as if he were nought but a pesky midge on a Highland ramble. It is indeed deeply tragic that the Tories laboured and brought forth a Tony Blair clone just at the time when charisma was going out of fashion and sober substance was taking its place. Michael Howard never should have resigned after winning those seats at the last elections (it was always an odd decision for a winner to make?). But he didn't have the vision or apparently the will to "reframe" the Tories which is what was needed to capitalise the gains. So there you go.

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