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David Cameron’s judgment day

This will be Cameron’s finest hour — or the scene of a lynching

Fraser Nelson

Wednesday, 26th September 2007

This will be a make-or-break conference for the Tory leader

If the election does come early, and Mr Cameron does quit after losing, then the growing number of Tories who actively discuss such contingencies describe Lord Ashcroft as the key figure. He is expected to play Bank of England to the Tory party’s Northern Rock, acting as guarantor of last resort. He is expected to urge Mr Hague to come back as a unity candidate. But I have still met no one who believes that the shadow foreign secretary — still bringing the house down in his £15,000-a-night speeches — would want his old job again.

Those who see Mr Cameron in private say he is holding up mysteriously well, showing few signs of strain (although those who saw him speak at the Carlton Club on Tuesday evening said he looked gaunt on that particular evening). Unflappability under pressure is his great strength, but can also give an impression of fey indifference. His must balance a new sense of urgency without conveying panic. On the one hand, he needs a 1.5 per cent swing to deprive Mr Brown of his majority. On the other, no opposition party has recovered from being 11 points behind in the polls this far into the political cycle.

But while there is certainly potential for unalloyed disaster at the Winter Gardens, there is also scope for success. The media, frustrated by the mind-numbing dullness of the Labour conference — all glassy eyes and ‘fresh starts’ — might well warm to a ‘Comeback Cameron’ story rather than fanning the flames of civil war. And like Tony Blair, Mr Cameron is at his best when forced to dance on the precipice. This is perhaps why so many of his colleagues have so much faith that his speech this year will deliver the goods.

It did, after all, do the trick in 2005. After his conference speech two years ago, Mr Cameron held a private drinks reception in the Imperial Hotel in Blackpool. ‘I think this has been the start of something,’ he said. Many people will gather to the Winter Gardens because they believe this to be the end of something: him. It may be cruel and unfair, but most people in Westminster believe the election to be lost already, and Mr Cameron to have already failed. He has until 3 p.m. on Wednesday to prove them all wrong.

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James B

September 27th, 2007 2:48pm

It is quite correct that the marginal seats are where it is all happening, and not the Winter Gardens. Relentless targeted leaflets and letters, paid for by Lord Ashcroft can do far more to make up a swing voter's mind than the grumbling of a few discontended party members in Blackpool. Most voters simply do not pay attention to party conferences. It's only the political geeks - and in this category I include myself and just about everyone who contributes to this blog - who get excited about 4 days at the seaside in autumn. I assume that the Conservatives are conducting their own polls in the target seats just as Labour is. I would very much like to know what these polls are saying. That way we can know whether David Cameron's recent challenge to Gordon Brown to call an election now is based on hard evidence that, where the votes matter, his appeal is succeeding. Or whether it was pure bluff. So far as Blackpool is concerned, I simply can't see it being anything like a re-run of 2003, when IDS made a desperate and ultimately futile pitch for his own job against a backdrop of staged applause from CCO stooges.

Barbara Bishop

September 28th, 2007 9:36am

Gordon Brown is waving Cameron off as if he were nought but a pesky midge on a Highland ramble. It is indeed deeply tragic that the Tories laboured and brought forth a Tony Blair clone just at the time when charisma was going out of fashion and sober substance was taking its place. Michael Howard never should have resigned after winning those seats at the last elections (it was always an odd decision for a winner to make?). But he didn't have the vision or apparently the will to "reframe" the Tories which is what was needed to capitalise the gains. So there you go.

bushra rahman

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