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Thursday 4 December 2008

WEB EXCLUSIVE: Georgia and Ukraine should be allowed to join Nato - Debate report

Lloyd Evans on the latest Spectator / Intelligence Squared debate

Georgia is still on our minds. August’s short nasty descent into violence triggered the first emergency debate of the season. John Kampfner, in the chair, began by observing wryly that the crisis had disproved the notion that ‘two countries that have Macdonalds don’t go to war.’

Oleh Rybachuk, a leading Ukrainian democrat, proposed the motion and expressed his country’s fears that Ukraine and Georgia would become a new eastern bloc and their borders ‘a new Checkpoint Charlie’. Expansionist Russia was busy violating Ukraine’s sovereignty by handing out citizenship to residents of Crimea. This alarmed Ukraine because ‘defending Russian citizens’ had been the Kremlin’s pretext for marching into Georgia. He urged Europeans not to use Ukraine’s freedom as a bargaining chip in its dealings with Russia.

Robert Skidelsky, a cross-bench peer and Russian analyst, began by trashing David Miliband’s recent suggestion that Georgia and the Ukraine should be allowed to join Nato if they wish. A military alliance, said Skidelsky, should accept new members only if it serves the interests of existing members. Both these petitioner-states are internally unstable and therefore ‘classic settings for separatist conflict.’ Accession to Nato might even cause the Ukraine to break up. Because both nations lack settled borders they’re unsuitable candidates for an alliance which is primarily a commitment to guarantee frontiers. A new Cold War might result, along with ‘plenty of little hot wars in the Caucasus and beyond and … wave after wave of suicidal nationalism’. The Skidelsky solution was to revisit a half-forgotten 2002 initiative and welcome Russia itself into Nato. With the big bear settled in the club, the threat posed by the membership of Georgia and Ukraine would be permanently removed.

Denis MacShane, former Minister for Europe, accused Russia of double-dealing and of failing to withdraw to its pre-August 7th borders. He attacked the Kremlin’s culture of political violence and said that if Russia wanted equal treatment it must treat other nations equally. Great Britain and Germany had learned these lessons in the 20th century. Russia should do the same. ‘The days when you can treat every neighbour as an enemy or a vassal are over.’

Russia’s popular TV anchorman, Alexey Pushkov, gave the view from Moscow. ‘Nato is a military alliance which slowly advances towards Russian borders.’ Russia’s suspicions of Nato had been confirmed by events. In the late 90s, a promise was given that Nato would locate no new military bases in former Warsaw Pact states that had joined the alliance. This promise was broken. If Ukraine acceded, Russia would feel compelled to close the 1400 km border with its neighbour despite the hassle and nuisance this would cause to the 14m Russians resident in Ukraine and the 10m Ukrainians living in Russia. Pushkov mocked Ukraine’s President Yushchenko, the chief architect of its candidacy for Nato, as a Kremlin-baiter whose approval ratings have sunk so low, (seven percent), that he stands no chance of re-election.

Georgian MP Giorgi Kandelaki sounded almost sympathetic when he rationalised Russia’s incursion into his country as ‘a response to post-Cold War humiliation and fear of encirclement.’ In a witty and perceptive speech he asked us to imagine how eastern Europe would look had some of the Warsaw Pact countries not joined Nato. ‘A far bleaker, far less democratic place, and an easier piece of meat for Kremlin Inc.’ Russian’s aggression in Georgia had sent a clear a message to its neighbours. ‘Going democratic is dangerous.’ It wasn’t just a security issue. The scrutiny process that precedes accession had helped the Baltic states advance more swiftly towards democracy. Similar benefits would come to Georgia.

Christopher Meyer trotted to the lectern in his trademark red socks and began by quoting Article 5 of Nato’s constitution. ‘An attack on one shall be considered an attack on all.’ With that in mind it would be dangerous and hypocritical to accept Ukraine or Georgia because Nato would never defend their borders against Russia. The alliance ‘isn’t a jolly democratic club which we invite people to join to make them feel better.’ Surveying the prospect of Nato expansion into the Caucasus he recalled a popular Texan phrase. ‘Do I want my dog in that fight?’ His speech helped carry the day and this highly informative debate finished with a huge turnaround in opinion. Rarely has the room been so dramatically swayed by the arguments on the night.

Votes

Before: 82 in favour, 54 against, 63 undecided.
After: 93 in favour, 120 against, 3 undecided.

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