Wednesday 3 December 2008

 

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Michael Henderson

Michael Henderson suggests


‘So close to war’

We came so close to World War Three that day

Wednesday, 3rd October 2007

On 6 September, when Israel struck a nuclear facility in Syria

The Syrians have good reason to up the ante now. The Alawite regime of Bashar Assad is facing a slew of tough questions in the coming months — most particularly over its alleged role in the murder of the former Lebanese leader, Rafiq Hariri, and its active support for the insurgency in Iraq. Either of these issues could threaten the survival of the regime. How tempting, then, to create a counter-threat that might cause Washington and others to pull their horns in — and perhaps even permit a limited Syrian return to Lebanon?

But that does not explain why the consignment was apparently too large to be sent by air. Look deeper and you find an array of other highly plausible explanations. The North Koreans, under intense international pressure, might have chosen to ‘park’ a significant stockpile of nuclear material in Syria in the expectation of retrieving it when the heat was off. They might also have outsourced part of their nuclear development programme — paying the Syrians to enrich their uranium — while an international team of experts continued inspecting and disabling North Korea’s own nuclear facilities. The shipment might even — and this is well within the ‘least unlikely’ explanations — have been intended to assist Syria’s own nuclear weapons programme, which has been on the cards since the mid-1980s.

Apart from averting the threat that was developing at Dayr as Zawr, Israel’s strategic position has been strengthened by the raid. Firstly, it has — as Major General Amos Yadlin, the head of Israel’s military intelligence, noted — ‘restored its deterrence’, which was damaged by its inept handling of the war in the Lebanon last year. Secondly, it has reminded Damascus that Israel knows what it is up to and is capable of striking anywhere within its territory.

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Neil Taylor

October 4th, 2007 4:17pm

Sir If an operation on the scale of that suggested by Douglas Davis and James Forsyth's article had taken place, would there not be distinctive and measurable radioactivity in the area?

Bill Hensler

October 4th, 2007 6:28pm

You Brits are lucky. Here in the USA they are having major investigations into the way a major radio personality said a set of words. I've got to read your news to find out how close we came to World War 3 (or 4 or 5, depends who's counting) Anyway, keep up the good reporting.

Agincourt

October 4th, 2007 8:21pm

A very serious business. But well done Israel. And Iran - do us all a favour & lay off the nukes! Otherwise....!

Lee Jakeman

October 4th, 2007 10:00pm

The nuclear "parking" explanation seems to me the most logical and likely.

SimoHurtta

October 4th, 2007 10:58pm

Come-on shipping nuclear material from North Korea with a 42 years old 1700 ton a ship, with a rather strange Korean name Al Hamad, passing two naval blockades and stopping in numerous ports. Even in Tripoli, Lebanon and uses one month to come from Port Said. http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/903991.html So far the nuclear "theory" doesn't make any sense. If it would be true why on earth do not Israeli and US reveal all possible evidence of that nuclear "transport"? Naturally if there was nothing this rumour tactics is better.

JohnM

October 5th, 2007 9:52am

"The only problem is that no one outside a tight-lipped knot of top Israeli and American officials knows precisely what that threat involved." I suggest that maybe the Syrians might have a little idea too!

Ed C

October 5th, 2007 3:28pm

Is'nt it interesting that a B-52 was discovered to have 6 cruise missle nukes on board at Barksdale on 9/6. Preparation or a threat-keep it quite or else. Close call, I would say.

Tom

October 5th, 2007 3:57pm

The syrians silence is, in my opinion, the largest admission of serious guilt possible.

Byron Ware

October 5th, 2007 9:29pm

Israel, yes, once up on a time the US could get away with doing just that! we have to many bleeding hearts for our enemys... Byron W.

the nationalist

October 7th, 2007 2:09am

Bloody business, for sure. How many countries will eventually get the bomb before the whole world goes up in a fireball?

Vince P

October 7th, 2007 10:58pm

We're already in World War Three. Our wonderful (sarcasm) leaders don't seem to know it yet.

burnet1187

October 8th, 2007 3:38am

Curiouser and curiouser... Least improbable would be a functional nuclear device.

Angel Elf

October 8th, 2007 3:18pm

I think that after all the money spent by Kim on his atom bomb project the bomb was a dud. Notice how quick he was to give up the project? So now he has all of this nuclear material to sell to someone that can use it. Also the lack of protest from Syria is deafening. Could it be that the Israelis have threatened Assad himself? Remember that overflight by Israeli planes last summer? It seems that Israeli planes can penetrate Syrian air defense with ease.

Eric

October 8th, 2007 6:49pm

Ed C Said: October 5th, 2007 3:28pm Is'nt it interesting that a B-52 was discovered to have 6 cruise missle nukes on board at Barksdale on 9/6. Preparation or a threat-keep it quite or else. Close call, I would say. Eric says: Wow. Wow. Wow. You're probably right. It was no accident.

Rob Kay

October 9th, 2007 1:55am

The use of a sensationalistic headline just to get people to read your story is the apex of incompetent journalism. We came close to WWIII? Please. There is not a single thing that Israel could bomb in Syria that would lead the world to WWIII.

val savarese

October 9th, 2007 9:31am

I checked the validity of yr article on an Israeli website which deals with terrorism espionage and political analysis. The attack did take place but neither side admits to why, it is presumed the Israeli jets went in to test the recently purchased missile defence system from Russia installed in Iran and Syria. If u want the name on the site u are welcome to email me.

BDUSA

October 9th, 2007 11:59pm

Mr. Kay: You may have missed the point, which I believe is "allowing the target to remain unstruck" was the WW III threat.

Michael Cecire

October 10th, 2007 5:19pm

I've heard the greatest amount of credence lent to the 'nuclear parking' and 'dirty bomb' theories for the strike. Syria's silence on the matter, however, stems not only from admission by omission, but also a shocking realization that recently purchased Russian AA systems - supposedly some of the most sophisticated in the world - proved ineffectual against the F-15I (I for Israel. It's not F151.). The F-15I, it should be noted, is not built for stealth. As a matter of fact, its radar cross section is rather obvious; what I've read, however, is that the Israelis employed some kind of communications-network attack to falsify radar data so that their strike flight remained undetected. This is conjecture and hypothesis, but either way it has given the Syrians a nasty scare - their air defense networks are supposedly one of the most comprehensive in the world - as well as their Iranian allies, who have also received similar air defense packages. I'm sure this doesn't make the Russians particularly happy either.

Rob Kay

October 11th, 2007 2:24am

BDUSA: I do see your point and as I often peruse these sites late in the evening I certainly could miss a point. But, as a reread all 3 pages of the story I am still am led to believe that WWIII could have begun "that day." I take that to mean that a Syrian retaliation would have started WWIII which, to me, is ludicrous. But, maybe I am wrong. Let me float this thought..what if there is nothing what-so-ever wrong with the Russian equipment, but the Syrian air defense operators were ordered to stand down? Could the near silence of all parties and lack of Syrian retaliation not be explained by such a scenario?

Michael Robinson

October 23rd, 2007 9:19pm

what a relief!!

eileen m

October 23rd, 2007 11:15pm

Where is the Necular Fallout!!!!!!

The Voice

November 11th, 2007 7:16am

Kudos! About freaking time! America & Israel forever. Now if you just get Condi to cancel that blasted conference that leads to hell, things might just get better.

charly.a

November 22nd, 2007 6:26pm

fear keeps people under control..if there was nuke material after bombing it fallout shouldt be everywhere..dont get too paranoid..cause they want you to be so..

Pl.Jus

November 23rd, 2007 9:59am

Noone seems to report that this strike has put Olmert out of a difficult position. Probably that was the cause and not a nuclear cargo just politics micromanagement. As far as the undetected part etc I ve heard that the place was very near to turkey - do you know how much time does it take for f-15 to attack from turkey borders to syria?? if they did attack at all from syrian airspace and they did just used stand off weapons (popey 150KM range among others)

J. Guth

November 26th, 2007 4:20pm

Thank you for the heads-up on this vital information and assessment. It's better than any of the so-called "news sources" in the U.S. have made. Our government is completely broken and now it seems that governments all around the world are too. Six weeks after the fact, we should be hearing nothing about this but I only received this story today by email.

Roger Hague

April 11th, 2008 2:28pm

I know little about these matters but wouldn't it be true that bombing an installation containing large supplies of nuclear material is very hazardous to the health of people in the surroundings, and even further afield as happenened in Chernobyl? Or am I missing something important here?

bill gates

July 12th, 2008 6:10am

don't panic
radiation has a half life of a thousand years
you will fry brother

choco

September 12th, 2008 9:21pm

no fission - no fallout.
a bombing does not produce fission, even though going there for holidays would probably not be so funny.. anyways, it's a remote area.


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