‘So close to war’
We came so close to World War Three that day
On 6 September, when Israel struck a nuclear facility in Syria
Equally, Iran has been put on notice that Israel will not tolerate any nuclear threat. Washington, too, has been reminded that Israel’s intelligence is often a better guide than its own in the region, a crucial point given the divisions between the Israeli and American intelligence assessments about the development of the Iranian bomb. Hezbollah, the Iranian/Syrian proxy force, has also been put on notice that the air-defence system it boasted would alter the strategic balance in the region is impotent in the face of Israeli technology.
Meanwhile, a senior Israeli analyst told us this week that the most disturbing aspect of the affair from a global perspective is the willingness of states to share their technologies and their weapons of mass destruction. ‘I do not believe that the former Soviet Union shared its WMD technology,’ he said. ‘And they were careful to limit the range of the Scud missiles they were prepared to sell. Since the end of the Cold War, though, we know the Russians significantly exceeded those limits when selling missile technology to Iran.’
But the floodgates were opened wide by the renegade Pakistan nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan, who is revered in Pakistan as the Father of the Islamic Bomb. Khan established a virtual supermarket of nuclear technologies, parts and plans which operated for more than a decade on a global stage. After his operation was shut down in 2004, Khan admitted transferring technology and parts to Iran, Libya and North Korea. Proliferation experts are convinced they know the identities of at least three of his many other clients: Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Syria.
In addition to selling nuclear-related knowhow, the Khan network is also believed to have provided Syria with centrifuges for producing enriched uranium. In 2003, concern about Syria’s nuclear ambitions was heightened when an experimental American electronic eavesdropping device picked up distinctive signals indicating that the Syrians had not only acquired the centrifuges but were actually operating them.
If Israel’s military strike on Dayr as Zawr last month was surgical, so, too, was its handling of the aftermath. The only certainty in the fog of cover-up is that something big happened on 6 September — something very big. At the very least, it illustrates that WMD and rogue states pose the single greatest threat to world peace. We may have escaped from this incident without war, but if Iran is allowed to continue down the nuclear path, it is hard to believe that we will be so lucky again.
Douglas Davis is a former senior editor of the Jerusalem Post and James Forsyth is online editor of The Spectator.
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Neil Taylor
October 4th, 2007 4:17pmSir If an operation on the scale of that suggested by Douglas Davis and James Forsyth's article had taken place, would there not be distinctive and measurable radioactivity in the area?
Bill Hensler
October 4th, 2007 6:28pmYou Brits are lucky. Here in the USA they are having major investigations into the way a major radio personality said a set of words. I've got to read your news to find out how close we came to World War 3 (or 4 or 5, depends who's counting) Anyway, keep up the good reporting.
Agincourt
October 4th, 2007 8:21pmA very serious business. But well done Israel. And Iran - do us all a favour & lay off the nukes! Otherwise....!
Lee Jakeman
October 4th, 2007 10:00pmThe nuclear "parking" explanation seems to me the most logical and likely.
SimoHurtta
October 4th, 2007 10:58pmCome-on shipping nuclear material from North Korea with a 42 years old 1700 ton a ship, with a rather strange Korean name Al Hamad, passing two naval blockades and stopping in numerous ports. Even in Tripoli, Lebanon and uses one month to come from Port Said. http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/903991.html So far the nuclear "theory" doesn't make any sense. If it would be true why on earth do not Israeli and US reveal all possible evidence of that nuclear "transport"? Naturally if there was nothing this rumour tactics is better.
JohnM
October 5th, 2007 9:52am"The only problem is that no one outside a tight-lipped knot of top Israeli and American officials knows precisely what that threat involved." I suggest that maybe the Syrians might have a little idea too!
Ed C
October 5th, 2007 3:28pmIs'nt it interesting that a B-52 was discovered to have 6 cruise missle nukes on board at Barksdale on 9/6. Preparation or a threat-keep it quite or else. Close call, I would say.
Tom
October 5th, 2007 3:57pmThe syrians silence is, in my opinion, the largest admission of serious guilt possible.
Byron Ware
October 5th, 2007 9:29pmIsrael, yes, once up on a time the US could get away with doing just that! we have to many bleeding hearts for our enemys... Byron W.
the nationalist
October 7th, 2007 2:09amBloody business, for sure. How many countries will eventually get the bomb before the whole world goes up in a fireball?
Vince P
October 7th, 2007 10:58pmWe're already in World War Three. Our wonderful (sarcasm) leaders don't seem to know it yet.
burnet1187
October 8th, 2007 3:38amCuriouser and curiouser... Least improbable would be a functional nuclear device.
Angel Elf
October 8th, 2007 3:18pmI think that after all the money spent by Kim on his atom bomb project the bomb was a dud. Notice how quick he was to give up the project? So now he has all of this nuclear material to sell to someone that can use it. Also the lack of protest from Syria is deafening. Could it be that the Israelis have threatened Assad himself? Remember that overflight by Israeli planes last summer? It seems that Israeli planes can penetrate Syrian air defense with ease.
Eric
October 8th, 2007 6:49pmEd C Said: October 5th, 2007 3:28pm Is'nt it interesting that a B-52 was discovered to have 6 cruise missle nukes on board at Barksdale on 9/6. Preparation or a threat-keep it quite or else. Close call, I would say. Eric says: Wow. Wow. Wow. You're probably right. It was no accident.
Rob Kay
October 9th, 2007 1:55amThe use of a sensationalistic headline just to get people to read your story is the apex of incompetent journalism. We came close to WWIII? Please. There is not a single thing that Israel could bomb in Syria that would lead the world to WWIII.
val savarese
October 9th, 2007 9:31amI checked the validity of yr article on an Israeli website which deals with terrorism espionage and political analysis. The attack did take place but neither side admits to why, it is presumed the Israeli jets went in to test the recently purchased missile defence system from Russia installed in Iran and Syria. If u want the name on the site u are welcome to email me.
BDUSA
October 9th, 2007 11:59pmMr. Kay: You may have missed the point, which I believe is "allowing the target to remain unstruck" was the WW III threat.
Michael Cecire
October 10th, 2007 5:19pmI've heard the greatest amount of credence lent to the 'nuclear parking' and 'dirty bomb' theories for the strike. Syria's silence on the matter, however, stems not only from admission by omission, but also a shocking realization that recently purchased Russian AA systems - supposedly some of the most sophisticated in the world - proved ineffectual against the F-15I (I for Israel. It's not F151.). The F-15I, it should be noted, is not built for stealth. As a matter of fact, its radar cross section is rather obvious; what I've read, however, is that the Israelis employed some kind of communications-network attack to falsify radar data so that their strike flight remained undetected. This is conjecture and hypothesis, but either way it has given the Syrians a nasty scare - their air defense networks are supposedly one of the most comprehensive in the world - as well as their Iranian allies, who have also received similar air defense packages. I'm sure this doesn't make the Russians particularly happy either.
Rob Kay
October 11th, 2007 2:24amBDUSA: I do see your point and as I often peruse these sites late in the evening I certainly could miss a point. But, as a reread all 3 pages of the story I am still am led to believe that WWIII could have begun "that day." I take that to mean that a Syrian retaliation would have started WWIII which, to me, is ludicrous. But, maybe I am wrong. Let me float this thought..what if there is nothing what-so-ever wrong with the Russian equipment, but the Syrian air defense operators were ordered to stand down? Could the near silence of all parties and lack of Syrian retaliation not be explained by such a scenario?
Michael Robinson
October 23rd, 2007 9:19pmwhat a relief!!
eileen m
October 23rd, 2007 11:15pmWhere is the Necular Fallout!!!!!!
The Voice
November 11th, 2007 7:16amKudos! About freaking time! America & Israel forever. Now if you just get Condi to cancel that blasted conference that leads to hell, things might just get better.
charly.a
November 22nd, 2007 6:26pmfear keeps people under control..if there was nuke material after bombing it fallout shouldt be everywhere..dont get too paranoid..cause they want you to be so..
Pl.Jus
November 23rd, 2007 9:59amNoone seems to report that this strike has put Olmert out of a difficult position. Probably that was the cause and not a nuclear cargo just politics micromanagement. As far as the undetected part etc I ve heard that the place was very near to turkey - do you know how much time does it take for f-15 to attack from turkey borders to syria?? if they did attack at all from syrian airspace and they did just used stand off weapons (popey 150KM range among others)
J. Guth
November 26th, 2007 4:20pmThank you for the heads-up on this vital information and assessment. It's better than any of the so-called "news sources" in the U.S. have made. Our government is completely broken and now it seems that governments all around the world are too. Six weeks after the fact, we should be hearing nothing about this but I only received this story today by email.
Roger Hague
April 11th, 2008 2:28pmI know little about these matters but wouldn't it be true that bombing an installation containing large supplies of nuclear material is very hazardous to the health of people in the surroundings, and even further afield as happenened in Chernobyl? Or am I missing something important here?
bill gates
July 12th, 2008 6:10amdon't panic
radiation has a half life of a thousand years
you will fry brother
choco
September 12th, 2008 9:21pmno fission - no fallout.
a bombing does not produce fission, even though going there for holidays would probably not be so funny.. anyways, it's a remote area.