Susan Richards says that the Russian ban on Georgian wine is a whisper of the tensions that could turn into a roar — a Great Game for the 21st century
Russia being in no position to respond militarily, it has responded shrewdly to the West’s moves. Staged agreements to dismantle its four military bases in Georgian territory have been met: two have been closed already, and things appear to be on track for withdrawal from the last two over the next couple of years. More significantly, Russia appears to be preparing to decamp from the naval base in Crimea in 2017, when its agreement with Ukraine lapses. For an ex-superpower like Russia, this is all profoundly humiliating.
Like the chess-playing country that she is, Russia has instead been playing to the strengths of her position. In Abkhazia, South Ossetia and southern Ukraine, whose minorities strongly object to being subsumed into nations where they feel unsafe, Russia has been consolidating her hold.
Meanwhile, she has started reminding her neighbours how conditional their ‘independence’ really is. In Georgia the year began with mysterious explosions on the main gas pipeline from Russia, which left the country without heat at the height of a fierce winter. Even before that Russia banned the import of fresh fruit and vegetables from Georgia. Following the embargo on wine imports, Russia has now banned another of Georgia’s big exports — mineral water from Borjomi and Nabeglavi.
This leaves Georgia in crisis. Most of its old industry has ground to a halt as a result of contested privatisation deals. Wine was Georgia’s second largest export, and 70 per cent of that was going to Russia. On top of all this the conflicts with Abkhazia and South Ossetia have left a quarter of a million Georgians internally displaced. If the country staggers on, it is thanks to a combination of US help and remittances from abroad, where a quarter of the population are working. There are now rumours that Russia may send home the two million Georgians working in Moscow. If that happened it would bring economic collapse.
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