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Wednesday 3 December 2008

Gordon Brown vs David Cameron

Irwin Stelzer says that the sharp policy distinctions of the past are no more, but that the choice ahead of the voters is still one to relish. This is his audit of the scores so far

Which brings us to foreign policy. Conservatives should daily bless the Chancellor for having kept Britain out of the euro, which as prime minister he will continue to do. After all, he has not waited this long to get his hands on the levers of power in order to cede a large portion of it to the European Central Bank. Voters owe him a vote of thanks. But Cameron will not reverse that policy, so sterling is safe in the hands of both men. But here Brown has an edge: his credibility in the world’s financial community far exceeds that of George Osborne, and will be a valuable asset in any financial crisis that threatens a run on sterling. That edge, however, must be weighed against the consequences of the inevitable weakening of Britain’s competitive position as its industry finds it increasingly difficult to bear the burden of taxation, regulation, and governmental micromanagement that are Brown’s weapons of choice.

With sterling safe in either man’s hands, the differences between the prospective PMs come down to two. Brown has a driving desire to extend his distributionist programmes to the international scene, and those who feel that Africa should be a top priority for British taxpayers will see him as their man. Others will think that past schemes to provide aid to these kleptocracies have done little to relieve the plight of that continent’s suffering masses. Brown has shown in his policies towards the public services that his talk of reform first, funds later, is just that — talk. So aid during a Brown premiership is most likely to continue along the old routes of debt relief and other forms of the government-to-government aid that have proved counterproductive in the past.

Cameron and his Tory colleagues will be more willing to condition future aid on genuine reforms. More important, Cameron is a devotee of Hernando de Soto, who emphasises property rights and microfinancing as the keys to alleviating developing-world poverty. So this is a policy area in which a genuine choice exists.

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