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Wednesday 3 December 2008

Spectator/YouGov poll

However, in one crucial respect the findings of the poll make dreadful reading for the hawks and supporters of Tony Blair’s close alliance with the White House. When offered the choice of maintaining the close relationship with the US, switching to closer links with Europe or an unspecified third course of action (which could be an independent foreign policy), the public turned en masse against America. A mere 14 per cent of respondents believe that Britain should continue to align herself closely with the US, against 45 per cent who said that we should position ourselves closer to Europe instead, and 27 per cent who support neither option. The public believes it can have it both ways: it wants to intensify the campaign against terrorists, but it wants to do so in concert with Europe, not the US. The poll reveals that the public is able to separate its hawkish and interventionist views from support for America. The difficulty, of course, is that there would be very few, if any, takers among the mainstream European political establishment for the aggressive foreign policy the British public advocates, and especially not in the largest countries.

Stephan Shakespeare, co-chief executive of YouGov, has an explanation for this apparent inconsistency. ‘The British people now feel that they are in a global war with terrorism, and one that will last ten years or more. But that doesn’t mean they have bought into the American “neocon” view of the future — even though they recognise the threat, and want a more aggressive response from the UK,’ he says. Instead, Shakespeare says, the public would rather that this more robust response from Britain came ‘from within the group of European nations rather than with the United States. They appreciate the scale of the conflict we are in, but see it as safer to be identified with Europe.’ There are strong similarities here with the public’s initial support of the war in Iraq. ‘In the period before the Iraq war, people approved of military action, so long as it was sanctioned by the United Nations. That was a similar attempt to accept the reality of the danger, without accepting all the consequences of being out there exposed alongside the leading player,’ Shakespeare says.

A complementary explanation to Shakespeare’s is that the British have unfortunately become increasingly anti-American, or at least dislike President George W. Bush, and are therefore reluctant to be seen to be closely involved with the US. On balance, however, the Spectator/YouGov poll reveals a British public increasingly convinced that it is involved in a war against Islamic terrorists, and determined to do what it takes to win. Politicians foolish enough to expect to gain mileage by downplaying the threat from the extremists will be in for a nasty surprise.

View the poll results

Allister Heath is associate editor of The Spectator and deputy editor of the Business. YouGov interviewed 1,696 respondents online, weighted to be representative of Great Britain’s population, on 14 and 15 August 2006. YouGov abides by the rules of the British Polling Council.

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